The housing market has impacted capital cities with price changes across Australia, but particularly decreasing median prices in Melbourne and Sydney. News reports, including a recent article from the ABC (1 July 2019), assert lower interest rates and improved property sentiment will boost prices in our two biggest cities, with prices expected to continue to fall elsewhere.
Despite a tightening of regulations in 2017, Australia’s regulatory body, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), is this year showing some leniency in lending criteria. Recent rate cuts in June and July by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have offered buyers and sellers a positive economic view. With unemployment rising, it is unlikely house prices will drastically rise and regional areas may continue to fall. With interest rates now at 1 per cent, Philip Lowe, Governor of the RBA remarked, ‘the easing of monetary policy will support employment growth and provide greater confidence.’
Market cycle position
The past 10 years has seen a changing market for Gold Coast City with percentage change overall four per cent lower over 10 years from 2009 – 2019. The graph below shows median price changes with ongoing uncertainty, a sharp drop from 2009 – 2012, followed by a drastic rise until a peak in 2015. Since then, there has been a sharp negative price change.
HtAG predicts median prices for house will decrease marginally in the next 12 months followed by a sharper increase. The impact to the sale prices of property will be a plateau or slight decline compared with the previous 12 months. However, despite this decrease in price growth, the overall growth reflects approximately 20 per cent growth since 2009.
Units in Gold Coast City follow a similar pattern to houses with a less dramatic fall in the past three years. HtAG predicts median prices for units will plateau in the next two years. The impact to the sale prices of property will be a plateau compared with the previous 12 months. However, despite this decrease in price growth, the overall growth reflects approximately 7 per cent growth since 2009.
With median prices slowing in 2019, Gold Coast City has a range of price growth changes in the past 12 months. The heatmaps tab within our set of available tools illustrates the annual median price growth for a specific area, in this case Gold Coast City, for 2018-2019.
Most of the suburbs within Gold Coast City have experienced some positive growth up to five per cent in the past year. However, a few suburbs have seen a negative price percentage growth including Southport, Surfers Paradise, Clear Island Waters, Robina, Miami, Hope Island, Upper Coomera, and Willow Vale. These areas represent price growth of minus three to minus 16 per cent in the past year. These suburbs may have qualities such as a low number of property sales, or have mainly expensive real estate, thus a lower than expected sale for one property may result in negative growth.
There are several high growth areas with dark green including Jacobs Well, Wongawallan, Gaven, Lower Beechmont, Tallai, Bonogin, Tallebudgera Valley, Currumbin Valley, Bilinga, and Mermaid Waters and Mermaid Beach. These areas represent price growth of between five to 10 per cent in the past year.
Given the market cycle position, we can expect the percentage growth to shift to a lower percentage range for most of the Gold Coast City area.
Most of the suburbs within Gold Coast City have experienced some positive growth up to seven per cent in the past year. However, a few suburbs have seen a negative price percentage growth including Surfers Paradise, Ashmore, Clear Island Waters, Merrimac, and Palm Beach. These areas represent price growth of minus one to minus 22 per cent in the past year. These suburbs may have qualities such as a low number of property sales, or have mainly expensive real estate, thus a lower than expected sale for one property may result in negative growth.
Some of the highest growth areas with medium green are Helensvale, Paradise Point, Carrara, Broadbeach Waters, Elanora, Currumbin Waters, Bilinga, and Coolangatta. These areas represent price growth of between seven to 21 per cent in the past year.
Given the market cycle position, we can expect the overall percentage growth for units to remain unchanged for most of the Gold Coast City area.
The overall trend shown in the heatmaps tab shows a dominant yellow and orange sale price which represents approximately $400,000 – $700,000. Much of the northern suburbs of Gold Coast City sit within this range including Southport, Pacific Pines, Parkwood, Labrador, Benowa and Merrimac.
The sale prices of central areas such as Mermaid Waters, Broadbeach, Mermaid Beach and Clear Island Waters show predominantly green sale pricing which represents approximately $1,000,000 to $1,400,000.
The southern suburbs of Palm Beach, Tugun, Bilinga and Currumbin Waters show a strong yellow sale price which represents approximately $800,000.
The overall trend shown in the heatmaps tab shows a dominant orange sale price which represents approximately $200,000 – $300,000. The units within Gold Coast City predominantly sit within this range.
The sale prices of areas such as Surfers Paradise, Broadbeach, Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach Waters and Miami, show some yellow and light green unit sale prices which represents approximately $500,000 – $850,000.
Given the dominant yellow and orange highlighting on the heatmaps, we can see Gold Coast City remains an affordable place to buy property compared with capital cities.
Dwelling type popularity
Gold Coast City has a vast range of property types including houses, townhouses, units, and rural properties.
With 14,209 sales in the past 12 months, three-bedroom dwellings are the most popular. Detached homes represent the largest portion of 7,387 sales, with sales units and semidetached dwellings making up the second and third largest portions respectively.
Four-bedroom homes are also popular, with sales of 4,229 in the past 12 months. Again, detached homes are the most popular.
Other home sizes including one- and two-bedroom properties account for 782 and 3,414 sales respectively, with 932 five-bedroom properties selling across the region in the past 12 months.
The overall property market outlook for Gold Coast City shows high demand for units, semi-detached and three- and four-bedroom properties in all suburban and coastal areas. Although negative median price changes are expected to continue, price growth is still evident in many areas throughout the region. Properties in popular beach areas, or family friendly suburbs continue to offer affordable options to meet demand. More expensive properties may experience a softening of sale price.