2020-2021 Market Outlook for Campbelltown, NSW

2019 Q4 Market Analysis and Forecast

2020-2021 Market Outlook for Campbelltown, NSW

The local government area (LGA) of Campbelltown is in the urban area of Sydney. The LGA is inland from the centre of the state capitol in an area called Greater Western Sydney. Then average price of property here is A$624,387, which is the lowest median price of all of the LGAs in the Greater Sydney region. The low prices found in Campbelltown make it the most accessible property market in the region.
 
The property market in Sydney rose rapidly over the last decade and overheated. Now, the region is going through a correction, with every LGA in Greater Sydney showing price falls in the last quarter, except for the internationally renowned districts at the centre of the metropolis.
 


 
House prices fell in all surrounding LGAs fell in the last quarter except for Wollondilly Shire Council, immediately to the West of Campbelltown, where prices rose 0.49 percent. Campbelltown City house prices fell by 3.34 percent. Sutherland Shire to the East fell even further: by 7.31 percent. Wollongong City to the South East is less influenced by the Sydney market, but house prices fell there too fell – by 2.55 percent. The other neighbouring LGAs – Camden and Liverpool City fell by 2.86 and 2.67 percent respectively.
 
Sales levels for houses in Campbelltown City were respectable at 219 during the last quarter. This shows that the price falls were believable and not due to some local market glitch, such as a bankrupt developer selling out and creating an exceptional influence on the market. By comparison, Wollondilly Shire, which covers a much larger geographical area, got house price gains over just 85 house sales.
 
The market for units in Campbelltown has less turnover than the market for houses, with 16 units sold in the last quarter. Unit prices are falling at roughly the same rate as the market for houses – a fall of 3.4 percent. Unit prices in all neighbouring LGAs also fell. Unit prices fell by 1.16 percent in the last quarter in Wollongong, which was the best performance in the area. Unit prices fell by more than 4 percent in all other adjacent LGAs.
 
Demand for both houses and units for sale in Campbelltown is very high compared to national statistics. In the rental sector, demand for units is higher than the national average, while demand for houses outstrips demand nationwide.
 
Rent levels are falling both for houses and for units. However, not as fast as sales prices. The result of this position is that yields have ramped up in the house rental sector – up to 3.82 percent, from very low levels previously.
 

 
Looking at the demand profile of property sales in Campbelltown over the past year, it can be seen that 3-bedroomed houses sell in higher volumes than other property types, with four-bedroomed houses coming in a close second. Almost all five-bedroomed houses sold over the last year were houses, with just a few five-bedroomed semi-detached properties being sold and no other property type in the five bedroomed sector. All of the one-bedroomed sales were units, with none of the one-bedroomed properties sold in the LGA being houses.
 

 


Houses

The historic price chart and forecast for house sales and rentals in Campbelltown shows some good news. Prices rose consistently up until Q4 2017, when they peaked at an average of A$660,000. Prices have been a little flat to receding since then, receding to an average of A$620,000. HtAG expects that house prices will stay stable for the next two years, falling slightly to A$610,000. Overall, the housing market in Campbelltown represents a safe haven over the next few years, when prices are expected to be challenging throughout Australia.
 
Sales volumes have dropped dramatically in Campbelltown since Q3 2017. In that quarter, there were 580 houses sold, but only 220 units sold in Q3 2019. The highest house sale level in history in Campbelltown was 700 in Q4 2017. Now the rental sector for houses is the largest division of the housing market in Campbelltown.
 
The rental market has seen a constant rise in volume since HtAG records began. In the last quarter, 990 rental contracts were completed – a much greater turnover than the number of house sales completed.
 
Rent prices haven’t fallen since 2009 until the last quarter, when the average rent level fell from a three-year plateau of A$460 down to A$450. HtAG forecasts see rent levels remaining at the same level for the next two years. With sales prices expected to fall slightly in that period, rental yields should rise.
 
HtAG’s bedroom-level forecasts are currently using a beta model source, so expect these forecasts to be revised once the model is fine-tuned by our data science team.
 
The market cycle graph below amplifies the message shown in the sales forecast graph above. Prices for houses in Campbelltown have increased in every year until 2019. Prices will fall in the next two years, but the rate of decline will reduce. The decreasing rate of price falls over the next two years suggest that prices should return to an increase in 2022.
 


 
The heat map shows that prices fell in just about every district of the LGA. Only Glen Alpine, Holsworthy, Kearns, Macquarie Links, Denham Court, Blair Athol, and Airds showed price rises in the last quarter. Of those, Glen Alpine had the smallest rise with 0.12 percent and Airds had the largest price increase of 2.06 percent. The area with the biggest price fall was in Bardia at 7.87 percent.
 
Price movements are mixed, with no clear pattern to rises and falls. For example, there is no side of the LGS that does better than the other.
 
The scatter plot below gives a little more clarity on the market for houses in Campbelltown. Although there isn’t much guidance in the heatmap about, the scatter plot shows where the sales are focused. West-Central Campbelltown clearly shows where all the sales activity is in the LGA.
 

 


Units

The housing market in Campbelltown is dominated by houses – both the rental and sales sector for units is much smaller than their house counterparts. For example, in the last quarter, 220 houses sold, but there were just 16 units sold; 990 rental contracts for houses were completed in the quarter and 310 contracts were signed for units.
 
Unit sales hit their highest level in Q4 2016 with 48 sales from which point, sales volumes declined to only 11 sales in Q1 2019. Since then, sales volumes have increased slightly, up to 16 sales in the last quarter. The average unit sale price reached its highest level in Q1 2017 at A$440,000 and stayed at that level until Q2 2018, when the average price fell to A$430,000. The average unit price fell to A$410,000 in the second half of 2019.
 
HtAG forecasts expect the average unit price to return to A$440,000 by Q3 2021 with quarterly sales remaining at 16 units.
 
Unit rental volumes per quarter have risen constantly since HtAG records began, reaching 310 contracts in the last quarter. HtAG expects this rise to continue up to 360 contracts in Q4 2021. Rent levels peaked in Q4 2017 with an average rental of A$370. The average rent in Campbelltown has fallen since then, reaching A$340 in the last quarter. HtAG analysis expects rent prices to recover up to A$350 in Q4 2021.
 
The market cycles graph for unit sales in Campbelltown show that constant price rise and the sudden negative cycle in prices in 209 and 2019. The HtAG forecast of a return to price rises I 2020 and 2021 is shown clearly in the graph below.
 


 
The area heat map for the LGA only includes two zones that showed unit sales in the last quarter. There are Campbelltown proper and Leumeah.
 
While the units sold in Campbelltown showed an average price falling by 2.09 percent, sales in Laumeah had an increased average price with a rise of 1.28 percent. A note of caution, however, lies in the sales volume, with only three unit sales in Leumeah in the quarter. Low sample sizes are very susceptible to influence by outliers. One exceptional property sold in the quarter will unduly influence the average price The same observation can be made for the Cambelltown zone, where that average price increase was measured over just nine sales.
 
The scatter plot below shows that most of the sales activity for units in the last quarter occurred in the West-Central area of the LGA. This map also illustrate how sparse unit sales are in the LGA.
 

 
 

Conclusion

 
Although all of the Sydney urban area is facing prospects of property price falls in the near future, Campbelltown should be a little more attractive to long-term investors than other LGAs in the Sydney area. The prospects for improving yields in the house rental market I a draw, and also the fact that Campbelltown is the most affordable LGA in the Sydney area.
 
The historically low prices n Campbelltown makes this LGA more accessible to first time buyers and outsiders moving to Sydney for work from other areas of the country that don’t achieve such high prices as Sydney. Smart investors should, perhaps look for price security in the house sales market of Campbelltown.

 
 
 

Trisha Harris
Trisha Harris

Trisha is HtAG’s data guru. Trisha’s role is to ensure that benefits of highlighting property data patterns are made available to our customers through HtAG’s service offerings. Always finding innovative ways to use and package data, Trisha ensures HtAG’s capacity to form a bridge between client’s informed decision making and raw data.

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