We use a machine-learning algorithm that learns off a combination of historical and recent — days and weeks — sales data to forecast future prices at city, council (LGA) and suburb levels. Our forecasts are produced continuously and published on a fortnightly basis for 5 capital cities, 400 council areas and 6,390 suburbs Australia-wide.
Here are some of the previous forecasts our model produced. Notice that the model is trained to predict the actual position in the market 2 years into the future, and although the forecast and actual median price curves don’t always align, the end-point result is astonishingly accurate. The forecast average error rate is in the 1-7% range with projections always falling within the confidence intervals outputted by our model. The error rate is significantly lower in areas exhibiting high volume of sales (40 per quarter or more).
We collect new sales data on a weekly basis. The delay in most industry property reports is at least 3 months. In contrast to that, because of constant inflow of fresh data, HtAG’s view of the market is near real-time. We normally have the current median price and corresponding forecasts modelled and published 1 month into the calendar quarter. For instance, Q4 data will be available in the first week of November.
Australian property market cycles differ across states and capital cities. Whereas most investors are aware of price cyclicity at this "low resolution" view of the market, little is known about how property cycles manifest themselves at the council and suburb level.
Because we analyse cycles at their most granular (suburb) level, our reports pinpoint areas that move out of cycle within a city or regional area. This information is of great value to any savvy investor looking for a perfect market entry and is very popular with folks employing the renovate and sell strategy. Our reports also evince areas that are not subjected to negative price movement in the downturn and are great safe haven investments for the buy and hold, negative gearing and positive gearing strategists.
For example, the first chart on the right illustrates cycles in 29 Sydney areas for the house market segment. Despite the downturn, 7 areas remain in the positive growth region (the horizontal 0 axis red line) with Area 1 (Woollahra LGA) exhibiting significant positive growth. Sign up to find out what all the charted areas are.
Similar to Sydney, cyclical patterns are seen in other capital cities, with Adelaide and Perth exhibiting at least 2 localised markets with opposite periodicity. These are just 5 instances of market cycle visualisations we produce. We have 600 more that encompass 6,390 suburbs Australia-wide!
Counts last updated on 29 September 2019.
Don’t limit your investment opportunities to a single state, council area or suburb and compare some of the best suburbs to invest in property Australia-wide. We rank over 6,392 suburbs across the country to help you find an area offering the highest rate of growth possible. Our council-level (LGA) reports will aid you through the process of shortlisting top performing localities in the country.
Already hold an investment property? Measure your portfolio’s equity position in the market cycle with ease. We provide market cycle analytics for over 400 Local Government Areas in Australia. Compare equity movement of suburbs within and across these areas to better time valuations, refinance or sell decisions.
More than 80% of the suburbs we collect data for are poor candidates for investment. However due to constantly shifting market sentiment some of these low profile suburbs unanticipatedly find themselves among the Top 20%. Our machine learning algorithm is able to detect these up-and-coming suburbs before they “boom“.