We use a machine-learning algorithm that learns off a combination of historical and recent — days and weeks — sales data to forecast future prices at city, council (LGA) and suburb levels. Our forecasts are produced continuously and published on a fortnightly basis for 5 capital cities, 400 council areas and 6,390 suburbs Australia-wide.
Here are some of the previous forecasts our model produced. Notice that the model is trained to predict the actual position in the market 2 years into the future, and although the forecast and actual median price curves don’t always align, the end-point result is astonishingly accurate. The forecast average error rate is in the 1-7% range with projections always falling within the confidence intervals outputted by our model. The error rate is significantly lower in areas exhibiting high volume of sales (40 per quarter or more).
We collect new sales data on a weekly basis. The delay in most industry property reports is at least 3 months. In contrast to that, because of constant inflow of fresh data, HtAG’s view of the market is near real-time. We normally have the current median price and corresponding forecasts modelled and published 1 month into the calendar quarter. For instance, Q4 data will be available in the first week of November.
Australian property market cycles differ across states and capital cities. Whereas most investors are aware of price cyclicity at this “low resolution” view of the market, little is known about how property cycles manifest themselves at the council and suburb level.
Because we analyse cycles at their most granular (suburb) level, our reports pinpoint areas that move out of cycle within a city or regional area. This information is of great value to any savvy investor looking for a perfect market entry timing and is very popular with entrepreneurs employing the renovate and sell strategy. Our reports also evince areas that are not subjected to negative price movement in the downturn and are great safe haven investments for the buy and hold, negative gearing and positive gearing strategists.
For example, the first chart on the right illustrates cycles in 18 Adelaide areas for the house market segment. Despite the downturn, majority of the areas remain in the positive growth region (above the horizontal 0 axis red line). Sign up to find out what all the charted areas are.
Similar to Adelaide, cyclical patterns are seen in other capital cities, with Sydney and Melbourne exhibiting strong cyclicity across all LGAs and Perth having at least 2 localised markets with opposite periodicity. Note that cycles presented here are for the house market segment. Sign up to get access to both house and unit market segment reports.
Counts last updated on 3 November 2019.
|2019 Top 10 Movers|
|10 Year Price and Sales Data|
|2021 Median Price Forecasts|
|Market Cycle Analysis|
|Capital Growth Ranking|
|Real Estate Investar Discount|