How Important is Timing the Market?

Falling house prices, especially in the capital cities, and with further falls likely, has left many investors wondering if it is a bad time to break into the property market. Savvy investors tend to shy away from buying near the peak of the market only to watch the market fluctuate and the values drop, then to stick around for years until it picks up again.

Greater Geelong Property Market Projections

The past 10 years has seen exponential growth for Greater Geelong with percentage change overall ten per cent higher over 10 years from 2009 – 2019. The graph below shows media price changes with periods of neutral growth in 2012. Growth stabilised from 2014 – 2016 at approximately four per cent year on year. In 2016, price growth accelerated from four to almost 13 per cent. In the past 15 months, price growth has slowed by approximately five per cent and will continue to decrease.

Kingborough Council, Tasmania

Sample report for Kingborough Council, Tasmania. The report showcases suburb ranking, forecasts and market cycle analysis for the area as a whole as well as individual suburbs that it’s made up of. Paying members will have access to this type of reports in 400 areas Australia-wide. This report is valid as at 25 January 2019. The numbers will change once we collect new data for the area – most likely in late February 2019.

The HtAG® Service Promise

The need for HtAG arose in response to the complexity of the property investment space as well as barriers to entry for obtaining accurate and valuable information about the property market’s movements. Australian property market is comprised of a plethora of submarkets, each with its own patterns and trajectories sometimes moving to different ‘beats’ and in different directions. Organising information to compare the investment potential of these numerous submarkets is more often than not a lengthy and costly process requiring a team of professionals.

Port Phillip, VIC Report (Units)

Port Phillip has had turbulent performance in the past 5 years. This area presents clear growth and decline cycles with a minor uptrend forecast. Generally, LGAs with this type of dynamic are better suited for long-term investors. Trying to time the market would be unwise in these conditions.

Camden, NSW Report (Houses)

Camden has a clear non-volatile price trend that is commonly a good indicator of high level of confidence in the trajectory of future price movement. This area has a strong historical demand indicator for housing stock. This means that demand is likely to remain at a historical average and maintain the uptrend which in this case is a precursor of price growth. We project that this area’s median house price is expected to grow 6% in the next 2 years. This is in comparison to an average of 5 % state-wide prediction in NSW.