Across the East Coast of Australia, much of the focus is always on Sydney and Melbourne. While those two capital cities have seen strong increases in house prices during the last growth cycle, their northern cousin could be set to outpace them both in the months and years ahead.
Brisbane – Median House Prices
Brisbane has not only been able to buck to price falls that much of the East Coast has experienced since mid-2017, but there have many many areas that have outperformed.
In fact, median house prices in Brisbane have increased from $727,000 in Q2 2017, to where they currently sit at $783,000. Contrast that to Sydney which has seen median house prices stagnate since the start of 2018.
Brisbane – Median Unit Prices
At the same time, the unit market looks like it has the potential to keep growing and continue on the current uptrend that we’ve seen. However, there is some chance of a short-term dip in the market, which is something that a number of inner-city markets have experienced across the country thanks to a decline in tourism and students because of border closures. These are traditionally renters of inner-city apartments.
Going forward, there’s likely to be even more attention on areas like Brisbane and even regional Queensland in the months ahead, given the way in which the state has navigated the most recent COVID crisis.
Strongest Performing Suburbs
In what has been a bit of trend across the country at the moment, the strongest price growth has been coming from the suburbs that are priced above the city median.
Of the top 10 Brisbane suburbs from the past 12 months, 9 out of 10, have a median house price that is above the city-wide median of $783,000. For the most part, the best performing suburbs are all within close vicinity to the CBD.
Chapel Hill 4069 +8.33%
One of the leading suburbs in the last 12 months has been Chapel Hill, which is located around 7km west of the CBD.
Over the previous 12 months, houses in Chapel Hill have seen strong growth, increasing in value by +8.33% (assessed with medium confidence), taking the median value to $962,000.
Overall Chapel Hill has been a strong performing suburb for an extended period of time and has seen consistent growth, which started all the way back in 2013.
However, according to HtAG analysis, it appears that Chapel Hill might be reaching a near-term top in terms of the amount of growth its seen in recent times. The high annual growth rate of 8.33% is expected to fall to under 2% by next year and the cycle is assessed as being at its peak.
Sherwood 4075 +6.06%
Back to the west of Brisbane and we can see that Sherwood is another suburb that has been performing strongly over the past 12 months. Sherwood is around 8 kilometres from the CBD and features medium-density housing.
The median house price in Sherwood has increased over this period by +6.06% (assessed as medium confidence), taking it to $996,000.
In terms of the property cycle for houses in Sherwood, it appears that in the short-term at least, this suburb has already experienced the bulk of its growth. With the projected capital growth rate expected to slow down to +2.7% by Q3 2020 and is also likely at its peak according to HtAG forecasts.
Bulimba 4171 +20.29% (Units)
For the Brisbane unit market, Bulimba in Brisbane’s east is one suburb that has seen very strong growth over the past 12 months.
Unit values in Bulimba have grown +20.29% based on 22 sales over the last quarter and it is assessed as medium confidence. That has seen the median price rise to $947,000 – again well over the cities median.
The current growth cycle is not likely to maintain a rate that high with the cycle assessed as being at its peak, but it does appear there will be more growth ahead both this year and next.
Brisbane’s Next Growth Suburbs
Looking at what is in store for many of the suburbs of Brisbane over the next two years and once again it does appear that there will be a real flight to quality. Again, the top 10 suburbs according to HtAG growth forecasts, focus heavily on suburbs that are above the median price, suggesting the flight to quality is still happening.
These higher-end areas are less likely to owners that are impacted by mortgage stress and are generally wealthier.
Yeerongpilly 4105 +9.05%
Yeerongpilly, located around 8 kilometres south of Brisbane’s CBD is expected to see growth of +9.85% over the next two years, with medium confidence, according to HtAG forecasts.
That would take the median house price to $968,000 form where it currently sits at $888,000.
In terms of where Yeerongpilly currently sits on the growth cycle, we should see further upside in both 2021 and 2022, with the cycle being assessed as a rising one according to HtAG, with a medium level of confidence.
Yeerongpilly is already coming off an impressive 12 months, that saw house values increase by 7.63%.
Manly 4179 +8.88%
No, we’re not talking about Manly in Sydney, but Manly in Queensland, which is located on the water in Brisbane’s East.
HtAG is forecasting median house prices to grow in value by +8.88% over the next two years with medium confidence.
House prices in Manly have seen steady growth over the last over the past decade with a steady upward trend. In terms, of where the suburb currently sits for house price growth, it looks like the next few years will be strong and the market is assessed as being a rising one.
Yeronga 4104 +4.24% (Units)
For the Brisbane unit market, Yeronga appears to be poised for good growth over the coming two years according to forecasts from HtAG.
Median unit values are expected to rise by +4.24% taking the median price to $527,000. This price growth comes off a very impressive 12 months where values have risen by +17.95%.
In terms of where Yernoga sits in its growth cycle, it looks like there will be positive growth over the next two years. HtAG has assessed this market as being at its peak.
While many areas of the country come under pressure, Brisbane appears to be a city with plenty to like in terms of potential growth.
There’s one suburb in Brisbane, in particular, that looks like it is ripe for strong growth of 13.39% for houses over the next two years and has been assessed as high confidence based on the forecasts from HtAG.
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AUS Council Areas ( houses )
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