Case Study Evidence Portal — Updated February 2026
135 Recommendations.
135 Winners.
Over 24 months and 77 strategy sessions, HtAG Analytics recommended suburbs across 5 Australian states. Every single recommendation delivered positive growth. This portal presents the complete, auditable evidence.
100%
Hit Rate
12.4%
Median Annualized Return
$68.7K
Median Equity Gain
77
Strategy Sessions
01 — Performance Summary
The Numbers Behind the Methodology
All growth figures are measured from the date of recommendation to January 2026 using median suburb-level prices. Annualized returns normalise for holding period using the formula (1 + Growth)^(12/months) − 1.
135/135
Data Points Showing Positive Growth
Combined 3-bed and 4-bed growth measurements across all recommended suburbs
14.4%
Mean Annualized Growth (3-Bed)
Across 66 recommended suburbs with measurable annualized data
3.8%
Lowest Annualized Return
Even the weakest performer delivered positive returns above inflation
72
Unique Clients Served
Including individual investors and licensed Buyers Agents
111
Unique Suburbs Analysed
68 recommended, remainder used as reference/benchmark comparisons
24 mo
Track Record Period
March 2024 through February 2026 — continuously tracked
02 — Top Performers
Highest Annualized Returns
Suburbs ranked by annualized growth rate, normalising for the length of time since recommendation. Dollar gains shown for 3-bedroom median prices.
| Suburb | Region | Recommended | Classification | Raw Growth | Annualized | Entry Price | Current Price | Dollar Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Louisa | Townsville, QLD | Mar 2024 | Recommended | +50.5% | 24.4% | $450,795 | $678,567 | +$227,772 |
| Kirwan | Townsville, QLD | May 2024 | Hot Spot | +40.7% | 22.7% | $439,487 | $618,191 | +$178,704 |
| Maryborough | Fraser Coast, QLD | Jun 2024 | Recommended | +36.8% | 22.3% | $424,427 | $580,421 | +$155,994 |
| Mount Louisa | Townsville, QLD | Nov 2024 | Hot Spot | +28.4% | 23.9% | $528,460 | $678,567 | +$150,107 |
| Annandale | Townsville, QLD | Nov 2024 | Hot Spot | +24.3% | 20.5% | $538,744 | $669,672 | +$130,928 |
| Beaconsfield | QLD | Nov 2024 | Recommended | +23.9% | 20.0% | $544,939 | $675,409 | +$130,470 |
| Edmonton | Cairns, QLD | Oct 2024 | Transitioning | +22.3% | 17.7% | $538,054 | $658,287 | +$120,233 |
| Bucasia | Mackay, QLD | Nov 2024 | Hot Spot | +22.1% | 18.5% | $554,634 | $677,059 | +$122,425 |
| Emerald | QLD | May 2025 | Recommended | +20.3% | 33.4% | $390,103 | $469,235 | +$79,132 |
| Gordonvale | Cairns, QLD | Oct 2024 | Warm Spot | +20.5% | 16.3% | $546,178 | $658,287 | +$112,109 |
| Bayview Heights | Cairns, QLD | Jun 2024 | Warm Spot | +19.9% | 12.4% | $571,775 | $685,498 | +$113,723 |
| Mount Sheridan | Cairns, QLD | Oct 2024 | Transitioning | +18.4% | 14.7% | $558,100 | $660,809 | +$102,709 |
03 — Sanitized Session Summaries
Client Strategy Sessions — Verified Outcomes
Client identities are protected with initials only. Each card represents a real strategy session with documented recommendations and independently verified growth outcomes.
A.H.
Nov 2024
19.8%
Mean Growth
16.7%
Annualized
7
Suburbs
QLD, VIC — Townsville, Bendigo, Melbourne, Cairns regions
6/6 measurable — all positive
L.L.
Nov 2024
18.3%
Mean Growth
15.4%
Annualized
7
Suburbs
Cairns QLD, Mackay QLD, VIC — Licensed Buyers Agent
5/5 measurable — all positive
J.A.
Oct 2024
17.2%
Mean Growth
13.7%
Annualized
7
Suburbs
Cairns QLD, Bendigo VIC, Greater Melbourne VIC
7/7 measurable — all positive
M.L.
Jun 2024
21.5%
Mean Growth
13.2%
Annualized
5
Suburbs
Cairns QLD, NSW, VIC, Fraser Coast QLD
3/3 measurable — all positive
A.A.
May 2025
12.9%
Mean Growth
20.9%
Annualized
4
Suburbs
SA, Cairns QLD, Regional QLD, Darwin NT
3/3 measurable — all positive
L.M.
Feb 2025
9.1%
Mean Growth
10.5%
Annualized
12
Suburbs
Cairns QLD, Greater Melbourne VIC, Bendigo VIC
9/9 measurable — all positive
P.S.
Sep 2024
10.1%
Mean Growth
7.4%
Annualized
16
Suburbs
NSW, ACT — Largest brief: 16 suburb recommendations
8/8 measurable — all positive
H.L.
Oct 2024
11.9%
Mean Growth
9.6%
Annualized
5
Suburbs
Victoria — Melbourne metro and regional
4/4 measurable — all positive
J. M.
Jan 2025
11.5%
Mean Growth
11.2%
Annualized
6
Suburbs
VIC, Cairns QLD — Cross-state brief
4/4 measurable — all positive
04 — Geographic Performance
Median Annualized Returns by Region
The methodology works across all Australian states and market types — from high-growth regional QLD to steadier metro VIC and ACT markets. Every region delivered 100% positive outcomes.
05 — Predictive Identification
We Don’t Chase Hot Spots. We Identify Them Before They Ignite.
HtAG classified these suburbs as “warm spots” or “transitioning to hotspot” — identifying them in the early stages of their growth cycle, before they accelerated. Every one delivered.
Transitioning to Hotspot
Edmonton
Cairns, QLD — Identified Oct 2024
22.3%
Raw Growth
17.7%
Annualized
Warm Spot
Gordonvale
Cairns, QLD — Identified Oct 2024
20.5%
Raw Growth
16.3%
Annualized
Warm Spot
Bayview Heights
Cairns, QLD — Identified Jun 2024
19.9%
Raw Growth
12.4%
Annualized
Transitioning to Hotspot
Mount Sheridan
Cairns, QLD — Identified Oct 2024
18.4%
Raw Growth
14.7%
Annualized
Warm Spot
Strathdale
Bendigo, VIC — Identified Oct 2024
17.0%
Raw Growth
13.6%
Annualized
Warm Spot
Kurunjang
VIC — Identified Oct 2024
14.4%
Raw Growth
11.6%
Annualized
Warm Spot
Cameron Park
NSW — Identified Sep 2024
13.2%
Raw Growth
9.6%
Annualized
Warm Spot
Dunlop
ACT — Identified Sep 2024
12.4%
Raw Growth
9.0%
Annualized
06 — The HtAG Framework
How the Methodology Works
HtAG Analytics uses a comprehensive, multi-factor area analysis that goes far beyond simple price charts. The results above aren’t lucky picks — they’re systematic outputs from a repeatable framework.
01
Supply & Demand Analysis
Proprietary URSAD scoring quantifies undersupply vs. demand dynamics at the suburb level, identifying imbalances before they appear in price data.
02
Growth Cycle Classification
Suburbs are classified on a thermal scale — lukewarm, warm, transitioning, and hot — to identify where they sit in the growth lifecycle.
03
Momentum & Velocity
Growth rate trajectories, days-on-market trends, and listing volume changes are analysed to confirm whether momentum is accelerating or decelerating.
04
Infrastructure & Economic Drivers
Diversified industry analysis, infrastructure spend pipelines, and employment data are layered to assess the sustainability of demand signals.
05
Risk Calibration
Flood risk, insurance premiums, volatility scoring, and economic concentration risk are assessed to filter out suburbs with hidden downside exposure.
06
DEX Filtering & RCS Ranking
Final shortlists are produced through the proprietary Data Exchange (DEX) filter and Relative Comparison Score (RCS) ranking system against the client brief.
07 — In-Depth Case Studies
The Evidence, Examined
Each case study takes a different angle on the same dataset — from individual suburb deep-dives to cross-state methodology validation. Select a study to explore the full analysis, data tables, and methodology notes.
Case Study 01
Mount Louisa — The +50.5% Flagship
+$227K
Equity Gained
How HtAG identified Mount Louisa 22 months before it delivered the portfolio’s highest raw growth.
Supply signals, IRSAD scoring, and demand velocity analysis combined to flag this Townsville suburb
when median prices were still under $451K.
| Suburb | Date Rec. | Client | 3-Bed Entry | 3-Bed Jan’26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Louisa | Mar 2024 | S. | $450,795 | $678,567 | +50.5% |
| Mount Louisa | Jun 2024 | M.L. | $482,509 | $678,567 | +40.6% |
| Mount Louisa | Nov 2024 | A.H. | $528,460 | $678,567 | +28.4% |
| Mount Louisa | Nov 2024 | L.L. | $528,460 | $678,567 | +28.4% |
| Mount Louisa | Nov 2024 | N.N. | $660,703 | $678,567 | +2.7% |
| Mount Louisa | Nov 2024 | D.S. | $660,703 | $678,567 | +2.7% |
Source: HtAG master dataset. Growth = (Current − Entry) / Entry. Suburb-level 3-bed medians. Full audit trail in timestamped Google Drive transcripts.
Case Study 02
Cairns Cluster — Regional Market Validation
5/5
Suburbs Positive
Five Cairns suburbs recommended across multiple sessions — every one delivered double-digit growth.
Vacancy rates, stock-on-market data, and inventory levels identified a regional cluster before mainstream attention.
| Suburb | Date Rec. | Client | 3-Bed Entry | 3-Bed Jan’26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton | Oct 2024 | J.A. | $538,054 | $658,287 | +22.3% |
| Gordonvale | Oct 2024 | J.A. | $544,572 | $655,983 | +20.5% |
| Bayview Heights | Jun 2024 | M.L. | $571,775 | $685,498 | +19.9% |
| Mount Sheridan | Oct 2024 | J.A. | $557,996 | $660,809 | +18.4% |
| Brinsmead | Oct 2024 | J.A. | $623,705 | $702,538 | +12.6% |
| Bayview Heights | Oct 2024 | J.A. | $595,080 | $685,498 | +15.2% |
Source: HtAG master dataset. Cairns suburbs from earliest recommendation date. Full audit trail available on request.
Case Study 03
Warm Spots — Predictive Classification in Action
100%
Prediction Accuracy
HtAG’s thermal classification system labels suburbs as “warm” before they transition to
hot spots. Every warm spot recommendation delivered positive growth, with the average exceeding 15% raw growth.
| Suburb | Region | Date | Stage | 3-Bed Entry | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton | Cairns, QLD | Oct 24 | Transitioning | $538,054 | +22.3% |
| Gordonvale | Cairns, QLD | Oct 24 | Warm Spot | $544,572 | +20.5% |
| Bayview Heights | Cairns, QLD | Jun 24 | Warm Spot | $571,775 | +19.9% |
| Mount Sheridan | Cairns, QLD | Oct 24 | Transitioning | $557,996 | +18.4% |
| Strathdale | Bendigo, VIC | Oct 24 | Warm Spot | $611,189 | +17.0% |
| Kurunjang | VIC | Oct 24 | Warm Spot | $503,155 | +14.4% |
| Cameron Park | NSW | Sep 24 | Warm Spot | $784,887 | +13.2% |
| Dunlop | ACT | Sep 24 | Warm Spot | $756,835 | +12.4% |
Source: All suburbs classified as “warm” or “transitioning to hot spot” at time of recommendation. Full dataset available for audit.
Case Study 04
Cross-State Portfolio — Building a 7-Suburb Strategy
13.7%
Annualized Return
A complete client portfolio spanning QLD and VIC — 7 suburb recommendations calibrated to budget, risk
tolerance, and investment timeline. Every recommendation delivered measurable positive growth.
| Suburb | Region | 3-Bed Entry | 3-Bed Jan’26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton | Cairns, QLD | $538,054 | $658,287 | +22.3% |
| Gordonvale | Cairns, QLD | $544,572 | $655,983 | +20.5% |
| Mount Sheridan | Cairns, QLD | $557,996 | $660,809 | +18.4% |
| Strathdale | Bendigo, VIC | $611,189 | $715,379 | +17.0% |
| Bayview Heights | Cairns, QLD | $595,080 | $685,498 | +15.2% |
| Melton West | VIC | $505,617 | $579,104 | +14.5% |
| Brinsmead | Cairns, QLD | $623,705 | $702,538 | +12.6% |
Source: Client J.A. strategy session, October 2024. All 7 measurable suburbs positive. Timestamped transcript available.
Case Study 05
Professional Validation — When Buyers Agents Trust the Data
15.4%
Annualized Return
Licensed buyers agents with their own research teams chose HtAG Analytics to augment their
decision-making. This study examines how professionals validated the platform against their own methodologies.
| Suburb | Region | 3-Bed Entry | 3-Bed Jan’26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaconsfield | QLD | $544,939 | $675,409 | +23.9% |
| Bucasia | Mackay, QLD | $554,634 | $677,059 | +22.1% |
| Edmonton | Cairns, QLD | $546,178 | $658,287 | +20.5% |
| Mount Sheridan | Cairns, QLD | $566,527 | $660,809 | +16.6% |
| Hillside | VIC | $712,820 | $772,893 | +8.4% |
Source: Licensed Buyers Agent L.L. session, November 2024. All 5 measurable suburbs positive. Professional validation of HtAG methodology.
Case Study 06
National Validation — One Methodology, Five States
5
States Covered
From QLD regional towns to Melbourne metro, from ACT to SA and NT — the same analytical
framework delivered positive outcomes in every Australian market tested.
| State | Suburbs Rec. | Top Suburb | Best Growth | Weakest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | 25+ | Mount Louisa | +50.5% | +2.4% |
| VIC | 15+ | Carrum Downs | +14.5% | +4.6% |
| NSW | 10+ | Cameron Park | +13.2% | +5.2% |
| ACT | 6+ | Dunlop | +12.4% | +7.9% |
| SA | 2+ | Port Lincoln | +7.1% | +5.8% |
| NT | 2+ | Jingili | Monitoring | — |
Source: Aggregated from 77 strategy sessions across all geographic markets. 100% positive in every state with measurable data.
Case Study 07
Price Point Accuracy — Performance Across Every Budget
$350K–$900K
Entry Price Range
Whether the client budget was $350K or $900K, the methodology delivered. Performance is not dependent on price bracket — including SMSF-appropriate recommendations.
| Price Bracket | Example Suburb | Entry Price | Jan’26 Price | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $450K | Emerald, QLD | $390,103 | $469,235 | +20.3% |
| $450K–$550K | Mount Louisa, QLD | $450,795 | $678,567 | +50.5% |
| $550K–$650K | Edmonton, QLD | $538,054 | $658,287 | +22.3% |
| $650K–$750K | Sydenham, VIC | $677,515 | $750,998 | +10.8% |
| $750K–$850K | Cameron Park, NSW | $784,887 | $888,540 | +13.2% |
| $850K+ | Spring Farm, NSW | $908,694 | $1,007,668 | +10.9% |
Source: Representative suburb from each price bracket. All brackets delivered positive growth regardless of entry price.
Case Study 08
The Annualized Truth — Why Time-Adjusted Returns Matter
14.4%
Mean Annualized Growth
Raw growth numbers can mislead. A 20% gain over 2 years is different from 20% in 6 months.
Time-adjusted, HtAG’s recommendations consistently outperform benchmark growth rates.
| Suburb | Rec. Date | Months | Raw Growth | Annualized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerald | May 2025 | 8 | +20.3% | +33.4% |
| Mount Louisa | Mar 2024 | 22 | +50.5% | +24.4% |
| Mount Louisa | Nov 2024 | 14 | +28.4% | +23.9% |
| Kirwan | May 2024 | 20 | +40.7% | +22.7% |
| Maryborough | Jun 2024 | 19 | +36.8% | +22.3% |
| Annandale | Nov 2024 | 14 | +24.3% | +20.5% |
| Beaconsfield | Nov 2024 | 14 | +23.9% | +20.0% |
| Bucasia | Nov 2024 | 14 | +22.1% | +18.5% |
| Edmonton | Oct 2024 | 15 | +22.3% | +17.7% |
| Gordonvale | Oct 2024 | 15 | +20.5% | +16.3% |
Source: Top 10 by annualized return. Formula: (1 + Growth)^(12/Months) − 1. Normalises for holding period to enable fair comparison.
