What does your company do?
HtAG (Higher than Average Growth) is a property investment portal that assists its customers in making accurate and timely property investment decisions. HtAG leverages the benefits of machine learning algorithms to rank the investment potential of different Local Government Areas and suburbs, Australia wide. Underpinned by advantages of Data Science and Big Data, HtAG processes large volumes of property statistics to classify the investment value of a particular geographical location.
How much do your services cost?
You can purchase a one-off subscription for as low as 19.99 AUD a month. The Standard Plan will give you access to median price forecasts and market cycle analysis for over 450 Local Government Areas that comprise of approximately 8800 suburbs across Australia. Get the Premium plan to see LGAs and suburbs ranked by median price forecasts and find localities with best ROI.
How accurate are your forecasts?
Our forecast model works off a machine learning algorithm that predicts median prices with an averaged accuracy of 90%, 2 years into the future. This level of accuracy is observed in areas with high and medium volumes of sales data.
How do you measure accuracy?
This question is best answered with an example. An LGA’s current median price is $300K with a 2 year forecast at $320K or a 6.67% growth. 2 years into the future the actual median price is $324K equal to 7.41% growth. Subtract 6.67% from 7.41% and you get 0.74% error. High and median confidence forecasts indicate that the forecast error will be below 5% and 10% respectively. Or have 95% or 90% accuracy. If the area in our example was marked as high confidence, then the forecast growth rate would have had a variance in the range of 1.67% to 11.67%, or $305K to $335K.
Why can’t I find an area or a suburb?
We did our best to recognise typos and phonetic searches. In a rare case when you can’t see your locality in search results, try searching for a shortened version of the name i.e. “Druitt” instead of “Mount Druitt”. Note that our reports are produced at LGA level with suburb level data embedded within, so the search result returned for “Bondi” will be titled “Median Price Forecast for Houses in Waverley Council, NSW”.
What does LGA stand for?
Local Government Area is an administrative division of Australia that a local government is responsible for. LGAs commonly have the same boundaries as council areas. On average there are 10-15 suburbs within an LGA. However some can have as little as 1 or as many as 70 suburbs.
What property market segments do you report on?
HtAG forecasts are produced for the house (detached) and unit (apartment) segments. Some areas only have reports in the house segment due to no data in the unit segment and vice versa. There are 387 area reports for houses and 208 for units. 145 areas are duplicated across the unit and house segments.
What number of sales is needed for a statistically significant forecast?
As a rule of thumb at least 30 sales average per quarter at LGA (Council) level or 10 sales average per quarter at suburb level are needed for the model to produce high and median confidence forecasts. We simplify all of the above by allocating confidence levels (High, Medium, Low) to areas and suburbs.
Do your forecasts take into account metrics other than historical price and sales data?
At HtAG, we divorce the analysis of causality between fundamental market variables such as population and unemployment and property price changes. By recording real time movements in the property market, the plethora of causes that impact on fluctuations in property prices have already been accounted for within the collected Big Data that serves as an input into HtAG’s algorithms. At HtAG, any market changes become an instantaneous input into the HtAG prediction model ensuring the continuous agility of our predictions and alignment with existing market conditions.