It’s possible the crisis is half way over…

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    • #24824
      AvatarPK Gupta

      It’s possible the crisis is half way over. That’s the best case scenario by modellers at Sydney University, who estimate Australia’s total infections could top out at less than 10,000. Many experts don’t agree and say the country will be lucky to escape with 30,000 cases. Just 81 new cases were reported today, the lowest for weeks, for a national total of 6103.

      Whenever it ends, this crisis is in a class of its own, the sharpest economic shock since the Depression and the most profound disruption to ordinary life since World War II. It’s likely life will never be the same.

      Whether or not a turning point has been reached, investors are increasingly pulling their heads out of their hands and looking forward. Wall Street legend Howard Marks says it’s impossible to pick the market bottom so why wait to start buying, while Morgan Stanley nominates some stocks in the battered retail sector that look well placed. The ASX ended on a four-week high. Stocks of a different kind are returning to some kind of normal.

      Woolworths loosened restrictions on the amount of pasta, hand sanitiser and other staples customers can buy, as panic buying finally eases up. Toilet paper? Australians bought 16 million rolls this week – 45 per cent more than the same week last year.

      Last month’s panic wasn’t just in the supermarket aisles. The Reserve Bank revealed there was a run on cash, including multiple withdrawals of more than $100,000 and “some cases into the millions”. It had to truck more coin to the banks to keep up.

    • #26107

      Don’t you think that the effects of the crisis on the economy are “lagging” behind?

      Titanic didn’t sink in an instant. The great depression occurred 1 year after the initial market crash. Everything was going great with a rosy outlook before the housing bubble burst in 2008. Do I need to give you more examples?

      The time-frame for economical crises to unravel should be measured in years and not weeks and months. As far as I am concerned our 2008 crisis is till here and we are experiencing its’ second ‘wave’. This wave was inevitable, but the covid outbreak just brought it forward by a few years.

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