North Kellyville, NSW 2155
The Hills Shire Council, New South Wales
Good to Know
North Kellyville, NSW 2155 is a high-value house market in the The Hills Shire Council area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. It lies north-west of Sydney CBD, and is home to roughly 17,401 adults across 7,668 dwellings, with a vacancy rate of 3.13%.
According to HtAG Analytics, North Kellyville is exhibiting balanced supply and sustained capital momentum. Stock on Market sits at 0.45% and Inventory at 3.57 months — around the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +7.9% YoY price growth and +4.2% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Price growth of +7.9% is outpacing rent growth of +4.2%, while the indicative gross yield sits at 1.92% — below the commonly cited 3% minimum for positive cashflow. Supply-side readings are balanced: vacancy is 3.13%, Stock on Market is 0.45% and Inventory is 3.57 months. Taken together, these signals point to a market where capital growth is the dominant return driver rather than yield. See the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap for a live view of where this sits versus other suburbs.
Who lives in North Kellyville — and why it matters for investors
North Kellyville records an IRSAD decile of 10, denoting very high socio‑economic advantage. That profile typically supports lower downside volatility in property values and a tenant base with relatively strong affordability. The renter/owner mix is 19% (neutral) and the units/houses split is 25% (neutral), indicating the suburb remains predominantly owner-occupied detached housing — a factor that influences long-term capital stability. Read the IRSAD Crossover study to see how socio-economic bands relate to market behaviour.
Why suburb-level data matters for North Kellyville
Council-level averages can mask pockets of distinctive performance; decisions should rest on North Kellyville’s own metrics. The suburb’s typical house price is $2,058,004, with an indicative gross yield of 1.92%. Supply and liquidity readings — Stock on Market 0.45%, Inventory 3.57 months and median Days on Market 40 days — tell a consistent story of a balanced market with stronger capital than yield momentum. For more on why you should research below the council level, see LGA vs Suburb research.
For a downloadable data pack, open the full North Kellyville data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 55
The HtAG RCS™ score of 55 bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into one composite. Reading the sub-score breakdown is essential to match market traits to your strategy (for example, higher RCS can reflect capital potential even when yield is low). Learn more about how the RCS™ is built.
open North Kellyville in HtAG Copilot to inspect the sub-score components and scenario analysis.
Forward signals to watch
vacancy rate — currently 3.13%: sustained readings near or above this level for 12–24 months would suggest softer rental growth and more landlord incentives; by contrast, a fall toward 1% or below over 12–24 months would imply tightening rental market conditions and stronger rent momentum.
building approvals ratio — currently 1.48%: this neutral reading indicates a moderate pipeline of new supply; a sustained rise would point to increasing future stock that can moderate price/rent upside, while a fall would signal constrained supply ahead.
Sydney cycle phase: a shift in the wider Sydney cycle — either stronger expansion or a broadening slowdown — would amplify or temper North Kellyville’s local momentum, affecting buyer appetite and capital growth trajectories.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
North Kellyville's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Market Trends
North Kellyville's headline values — $2,058K to buy and $761PW to rent, a 1.92% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 206.62% and rents 34.39% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$2,058K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$761PW today, with rent growth at (+4.24% YoY) compared to price growth (+7.88%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is North Kellyville in its cycle - and is the 1.92% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping North Kellyville's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, North Kellyville carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
North Kellyville's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
North Kellyville can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is North Kellyville genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do North Kellyville prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into North Kellyville - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
North Kellyville looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does North Kellyville's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether North Kellyville has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
North Kellyville shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether North Kellyville has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of North Kellyville 2155 NSW is 21,173, with a median age of 38. Of those, 62.17% are married, 6.56% are divorced or separated, 28.16% are single and 3.07% are widowed.
The average household size is 3.3 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $12,488. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $3,000 which is 24.02% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)