Public Housing vs Property Growth — Whitepaper & No-Go Zones Register

$350.00

Comprehensive statistical analysis of how public housing concentration affects property investment outcomes across 4,135 Australian suburbs. Includes the full whitepaper covering correlation analysis, growth breakpoints, friction ceilings, and doubling potential — plus the No-Go Zones Register identifying 313 suburbs buyers agents should avoid for long-term investment clients. Based on ABS Census 2021 data and HtAG Market Insights.

Description

Description

What’s Included

This product contains two comprehensive PDF documents:

1. Public Housing vs Property Growth — Whitepaper A full statistical analysis examining the relationship between public housing concentration and residential property growth dynamics across 4,135 Australian suburbs. Covers correlation analysis, growth breakpoints, friction ceilings, doubling potential, IRSAD positioning, and RCS composite scoring.

2. No-Go Zones Register — Public Housing A data-driven register identifying 313 Australian suburbs where long-term property investment carries elevated structural risk due to public housing concentration. Each entry includes suburb name, postcode, SA4 region, PH%, median price, growth rates, IRSAD decile, RCS score, severity rating, and multi-metric exclusion reasoning.

Key Findings

10% Growth Breakpoint — Above 10% public housing concentration, 5-year capital growth slope turns negative
r = −0.34 Correlation — Strong negative correlation between public housing rate and IRSAD decile (p < 0.001)
8.6pp Doubling Erosion — Suburbs with PH 10–15% lose 8.6 percentage points of doubling probability compared to low-PH suburbs
RCS Impact — RCS Overall score drops from 55.7 (Low PH) to 36.8 (Extreme PH), confirming the composite scoring system captures structural risk in real time
Friction Ceiling — Above 8% PH, quality metrics deteriorate faster than growth improves
313 No-Go Suburbs — Classified as Critical (135), Severe (142), or Caution (36) across all states and territories

Who Is This For

Buyers Agents — Screen shortlists against the No-Go Register before recommending investment properties to clients
Property Investors — Understand the structural risk profile of suburbs under consideration for long-term holds
Portfolio Managers — Assess existing portfolio exposure to public housing concentration risk
Property Researchers — Access the underlying methodology and statistical framework for further analysis

Data Sources

Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2021 (Table G37) — Public housing rates
ABS Census 2016 (G33) and 2011 (B32) — Historical trend analysis
HtAG Market Insights (Feb–Mar 2026) — Growth rates, IRSAD, RCS, yield, vacancy, and proprietary risk indicators
4,135 suburbs analysed at High and Medium confidence levels