Casey Infrastructure Projects, VIC

Casey is a fast-growing, service-intensive urban economy with construction, health, manufacturing, retail and transport at its centre.

Economic base

Casey is a large, growing urban economy with a substantial service and production base. Health care and social assistance accounts for 14.9% of employed residents, followed by construction at 11.5%, manufacturing at 10.9%, retail trade at 10.2% and education and training at 6.7%. Transport, postal and warehousing contributes 5.9%, while professional, scientific and technical services contributes 5.3%. This mix combines population-serving services with construction, manufacturing, logistics and technical work, giving the council an economy broader than residential development alone. The composition also links everyday local demand with activities that move goods, deliver buildings and provide specialised services.

Business activity reinforces that character. In June 2025, Casey had 38,056 registered businesses and 10,392 employing businesses. Construction had 8,564 registered businesses, transport, postal and warehousing 8,853, professional, scientific and technical services 3,085, health care and social assistance 2,394, and manufacturing 1,060. These counts describe business presence rather than workplace employment, but they indicate a diverse local operating base. The labour market included 232,481 people in the 2026-Q1 labour force, with 13,034 unemployed and an unemployment rate of 5.6%. Together, the business structure and labour-market figures point to an economy where construction and logistics sit alongside services that support a growing urban population.

Project program

The project program is led by active industrial, school, health, retail and transport work. Proposed work is transport, while completed work spans school, industrial, transport, retail and health activity. The largest priced active or proposed work is concentrated in transport, industrial and health activity at a large scale. This gives the program a strong physical-infrastructure and community-capacity direction, with current activity across both employment-supporting and population-serving functions. The direction of work connects movement, employment land, essential services and day-to-day urban activity without reducing the program to a single economic function.

Building activity provides a separate near-term measure of approved work. Non-residential building approvals over the latest 12 months had a value of $760m and were at 0.89× Casey’s own three-year average. Dwelling approvals over the 12 months to July 2026 were at 0.88× the council’s own three-year average. These measures place approved building activity below Casey’s recent local averages while retaining a substantial non-residential value. Read with the direction of project work, they show a council combining ongoing physical and community-capacity activity with a recent approvals pace that warrants close observation across residential and non-residential building.

Economic connections

Transport work aligns with Casey’s logistics and production base. Transport, postal and warehousing represents 5.9% of employed residents, and transport is both an active and proposed project direction, with shared transport work extending across councils. This combination supports attention to freight and access connections for manufacturing, wholesale, retail and construction businesses. Industrial work also aligns with the council’s manufacturing base, while large-scale transport, industrial and health activity indicates a program spanning access, employment-supporting land uses and essential services. Better connections across these functions could improve the movement of goods and the reach of services, subject to delivery and operating conditions.

School and health work aligns with the demands of a growing population and a service-heavy economy. Health care and social assistance is the largest identified employment industry, while education and training is also material. Population growth can increase demand for health, education, childcare and aged-care capacity; current hospitals, childcare services and aged-care provision therefore form an important service base alongside the project program. Construction activity provides a delivery mechanism across these work types, supported by a sizeable local construction business base and construction employment share. The relationship is therefore two-way: population growth raises service requirements, while service and access capacity supports the functioning of households and businesses.

Outlook

Casey’s immediate outlook is shaped by population growth and the scale of services needed to support it. The resident population was 414,929 in 2025, with annual change of 10,721 people or 2.7%. Natural increase contributed 4,514 people, net overseas migration 4,382 and net internal migration 1,825. The combination points to demand generated both within the existing population and through migration. Health, education, retail, transport and construction are consequently important indicators of how the economy absorbs growth. Population change is also relevant to the timing and capacity of schools, hospitals, childcare, aged care, transport links and employment-supporting land uses.

The main watch is the relationship between approved building activity, service capacity and the direction of project work. Housing approvals have exceeded the state target’s required yearly pace across the period since July 2023, while the latest 12-month dwelling pace is below Casey’s own three-year average. Non-residential approvals are also below that local average. The labour market, population change, business counts and balance between transport, industrial, health, school and retail work will help indicate how the council’s expansion is being accommodated. The mix matters because approvals, employment conditions and service capacity describe different parts of the same urban adjustment.

For council and planning staff

The housing target requires 3,107 homes a year, and approvals since July 2023 were at 126% of the yearly pace required across July 2023 to July 2026. Casey’s latest dwelling approval rate was 8.3 dwellings per 1,000 residents over the 12 months to July 2026. Population change was 10,721 people, or 2.7%, in 2025, comprising natural increase of 4,514, net overseas migration of 4,382 and net internal migration of 1,825. Service capacity included 5 hospitals, 281 approved centre-based childcare services and 17 residential aged care homes. These measures connect housing delivery with the pace and composition of population change and the services needed across the council.

For buyers’ agents and investors

Census 2021 recorded an average household size of 3.1 people and a median age of 34. Tenure comprised 51.3% owned with a mortgage, 22.5% owned outright and 23.2% rented. A substantial 50.9% had lived at a different address five years earlier. Median weekly household income was $1,918 and median weekly personal income was $783. The labour force participation rate was 65.2% in 2021, while the unemployment rate was 5.6% in 2026-Q1. New houses accounted for 2,891 approved dwellings and townhouses, apartments and other dwellings for 553 in the 12 months to July 2026. Together, the figures describe household structure, tenure and movement alongside labour-market conditions and the dwelling mix.

For builders and developers

In the 12 months to July 2026, 3,444 dwellings were approved: 2,891 new houses and 553 townhouses, apartments and other dwellings. The residential building work approved was valued at $1.6bn, and approvals were at 0.88× Casey’s own three-year average. Non-residential building approvals were valued at $760m in the 12 months to June 2026 and were at 0.89× the council’s own three-year average. The local construction base comprised 8,564 registered construction businesses and 2,584 employing construction businesses in June 2025. Construction accounted for 11.5% of employed residents in the 2021 Census. These figures describe the approved work, its residential mix, local construction business presence and non-residential activity across their stated periods.

Key takeaways

• Casey has a broad urban economic base, led by health care and social assistance, construction, manufacturing, retail and education, with substantial transport and professional-services activity.
• Project work is directed towards active industrial, school, health, retail and transport activity, proposed transport work and large-scale transport, industrial and health activity.
• Population growth is substantial, while recent dwelling and non-residential approval rates are below Casey’s own three-year averages and service capacity remains central to the council’s outlook.

Sources

• Health care and social assistance — ABS Census 2021
• Registered businesses — ABS Counts of Australian Businesses
• Unemployment rate — Small Area Labour Markets
• Construction — ABS Census 2021
• Manufacturing — ABS Census 2021
• Retail trade — ABS Census 2021
• Education and training — ABS Census 2021
• Transport, postal and warehousing — ABS Census 2021
• Professional, scientific and technical services — ABS Census 2021
• Employing businesses — ABS Counts of Australian Businesses
• Registered businesses, Construction — ABS Counts of Australian Businesses
• Registered businesses, Transport, Postal and Warehousing — ABS Counts of Australian Businesses
• Registered businesses, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services — ABS Counts of Australian Businesses
• Registered businesses, Health Care and Social Assistance — ABS Counts of Australian Businesses
• Registered businesses, Manufacturing — ABS Counts of Australian Businesses
• Labour force — Small Area Labour Markets
• Unemployed persons — Small Area Labour Markets
• Non-residential building approvals, latest 12 months — ABS Building Approvals
• Dwellings approved versus this council's own three-year average — ABS Building Approvals
• Non-residential building approvals versus this council's own three-year average, weighted by the value of those approvals — ABS Building Approvals
• Population change — ABS Regional Population
• Registered businesses, Wholesale Trade — ABS Counts of Australian Businesses
• Open public and private hospitals — AIHW MyHospitals
• Approved centre-based childcare services — ACECQA national register
• Residential aged care homes — AIHW GEN aged care
• Estimated resident population — ABS Regional Population
• Dwellings approved since July 2023 against the yearly pace the housing target needs (100% is on pace) — Plan for Victoria
• Population change — ABS Regional Population
• Natural increase — ABS Regional Population
• Net internal migration — ABS Regional Population
• Net overseas migration — ABS Regional Population
• Target: 87,000 net new dwellings from 2023 to 2051 (3,107 a year) — Plan for Victoria
• Dwellings approved per 1,000 residents, latest 12 months — ABS Building Approvals
• Rented — ABS Census 2021
• Median age — ABS Census 2021
• New houses approved, latest 12 months — ABS Building Approvals
• Average household size — ABS Census 2021
• Owned with a mortgage — ABS Census 2021
• Owned outright — ABS Census 2021
• Lived at a different address 5 years ago — ABS Census 2021
• Median household income (weekly) — ABS Census 2021
• Median personal income (weekly) — ABS Census 2021
• Labour force participation rate — ABS Census 2021
• Townhouses, apartments and other dwellings approved, latest 12 months — ABS Building Approvals
• Dwellings approved, latest 12 months — ABS Building Approvals
• Value of residential building work approved (new homes, alterations and additions), latest 12 months — ABS Building Approvals
• Employing businesses, Construction — ABS Counts of Australian Businesses