Property Market Outlook for Casey City, Victoria

Situated some 40km south east of Melbourne is the City of Casey. It is the biggest and most progressive municipality in Victoria and is divided into five geographic regions which start from the hills of the Dandenong River, stretching all the way to the coastal area of Western Port Bay. Most of the urbanization is concentrated towards the northern part of the city.
 
Named after the 16th Governor-General of Australia, Lord Casey, the municipality came into existence as a result of the merger between some parts of the City of Berwick, Shire of Cranbourne and the City of Knox.
 
A big part of the economy of the city comes from industry, mainly agriculture and building construction which in turn offers excellent employment opportunities; ensuring capital growth and an ever-increasing demand for residential property.
 
Being the most populous city in Victoria, Casey City has a thriving real estate market with a big demand for houses to both own and rent as well as a somewhat smaller demand for units.
 
 

Dwelling Type Demand Profile

 
Compared to national average, there is a bigger buy demand for houses in Casey City as compared to units, however there is a strong price growth in the rental sector of both houses and units. The the rental yield for houses is less than units by (4.09%-3.42%) = 0.67%.
 

 
The demand profile above presented by HtAG shows that 4-bedroom houses garnered the highest demand in Casey City in 2019-2020, closely followed by 3-bedroom houses. 2 and 1 bedroom dwellings have little to no demand in the housing market.
 
 

How do Casey City houses & units compare to neighbouring LGAs?

 
According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Casey City is around A$620,000 with a -60k to + 320K variance compared to the neighboring LGAs:

 
The first quarter of the year 2020 brought some moderate changes to the housing prices in Casey City where they fell by -0.95% compared to the previous year as shown on the heat map. In comparison 2 of the remaining 5 neighboring LGAs exhibited positive growth:

 

 
There is a rather small market for units in Casey City as compared to houses with the units priced at a median value of A$450,000. Neighboring LGA prices vary in the range from -60K to +95K with the median price for units reported as:

 
However, as opposed to the houses, unit prices in Casey City have seen positive growth in the first quarter of the year with 3.38% increase. Similarly, 3 out of 5 neighboring LGAs showed a comparable increase in the median price. That is to say, there is also a decrease in the median price for units in the remaining 2 LGAs:

 
 

Property Market Forecast for Casey City Houses

 
HtAG property market data for Casey City shows that sales volume for houses have been steadily increasing up until 2018 where they had a sudden drop. There is an early sign of recovery in terms of sales volumes with 40 sales recorded in Q4 2019, which is almost double of sales volume in previous quarter. Rental volumes have been continuously increasing up until the current quarter (2020 Q1).
 

 
Median house prices became stable reaching the value of A$630k at their 2018 peak and have not changed since. HtAG forecasts show that this trend is expected to follow well into the first quarter of 2022 where prices will maintain their current levels.
 
As opposed to that, median prices for rentals have exhibited continuous growth from A$310 in 2009 to A$410 in 2020 and HtAG forecasts that this median value is expected to reach A$440 in 2022.
 
 

Property Cycle Position of Casey City Houses

 
The market cycle graph for this LGA shows a considerable fluctuation in the median price change where it only grew by 1% in 2012. However, price growth started to increase gradually after that, reaching the highest yearly change of 12% in 2017, only to begin slowing again in the following years crossing the red line in 2019 with a negative yearly change of -0.95% at the beginning of 2020.
 

 
According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for this LGA are expected to decline by a further -0.64% by 2021. The property cycle for this LGA will likely reach its’ trough in years 2020-2021.
 
 

Suburb Capital Growth and Price Variance Heatmaps for Houses in Casey City

 
The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis. The red areas show the percentage decrease below 2% with the lowest prices recorded in Doveton Houses (A$493,000) at -3.23%. The color yellow and the spectrum of green shades show the percentage increase ranging from 2%-6% with the highest recorded percentage in Narre Warren North Houses at 6.30%.
 

 
The scatter plot above shows all the individual sales over the past years and their concentration in the LGA. Berwick, Narre Warren, Narre Warren South & North are the high end suburbs where most of the sales in the 800K-1M sales occurred. There is a pocket of higher than average prices in the suburb of Botanic Ridge. In contrast to that Cranbourne, Cranbourne , Cranbourne West &East, Linbrook, Doveton are the lower end suburbs with prices in the 300K to 500K range.
 
 

Property Market Forecast for Casey City Units

 
Median price for units in Casey City is comparatively lower than the median price for houses, as can be seen in the graph below. For example, units had a median price of A$450k in the first quarter of 2020 whereas houses had a median price of A$630k during the same period. There is a similar trend observed in the rental prices for units and houses with the median rent reported at A$350 for units and A$410 for houses.
 

According to market forecasts by HtAG, median price and median rent is going to increase gradually in the coming years. Median price is expected to reach A$490K by 2020 while median rent is expected to reach A$380 by the same year. This shows that investors can benefit more from investing in units as compared to houses in some scenarios.
 
 

Property Cycle Position of Casey City Units

 
Market cycle graph for Casey City below shows yearly median price change starting from 2008. In 2010, the median price change was 8.93% however, it slowed over the next couple of years and in 2013, it only grew by 0.23%. The price started to increase in the following years and 2017 witnessed the highest yearly change of 12.19%. The growth slowed again over the next two years but it has increased from 2.48% in 2019 to 3.38% in the first quarter of 2020.
 

 
The dark orange line on the graph shows a forecast of the median price change which bodes well for unit prices in the coming year with an estimated 4.97% increase as opposed to -0.64% median price decrease for houses. Based on the 2020 Q1 data, the Casey City property market for units has reached its’ trough in year 2019.
 
 

Suburb Capital Growth & Price Variance Heatmaps for Units in Casey City

 
The area heatmap below shows the annual median price growth for units in Casey City in 2020. Out of 7 highlighted suburb, only Berwick Units have shown negative growth with median price change noted at -0.99%. Cranbourne Units have the highest percentage of growth at 6.81%.
 

 
As can be seen from the scatter plot, there are lot fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. Majority of sales are concentrated in the suburbs of Narre Warren, Hallam, Berwick. Berwick units have the highest sale prices in the 400K to 600K range. Sales in the other suburbs fall in the lower range of 280K to 400K.
 
 

Conclusion

 
Casey City enjoys a rather favorable position in the state of Victoria because of its stable housing market, posing excellent opportunities to invest in property in this LGA. Being a city focused on industry gives it a higher edge than some other cities, in terms of employment opportunities, where property prices in general have started to take a downturn. The rent as well as sale prices in Casey City are affordable, making it one of the best LGAs to invest in the state of Victoria. Please refer to the below table which provides a comparison between different suburbs in this LGA in terms of statistical information presented previously.
 
 
 
 

Leave a comment