Property Market Outlook for Greater Bendigo, VIC

Located 150km northwest of Melbourne’s CBD, Bendigo has the fourth largest inland population in Australia, with 99,122 people.

The Greater Bendigo area spans 3,000 km2 and has over 118,093 people living in the region.

Bendigo rose to prominence in the 1850s as one of the key areas that benefited from the Victorian gold rush. During the 19th century it was the highest producing goldfield in Australia and the largest gold-mining economy in eastern Australia.

The main retail centre of Bendigo is the central business district, with the suburbs of Eaglehawk, Kangaroo Flat, Golden Square, Strathdale, and Epsom also having shopping districts.

Greater Bendigo has been growing steadily with 2019 seeing 1.77% growth.

48,678 people living in the City of Greater Bendigo in 2016 were employed, of which 57% worked full-time and 41% part-time. The unemployment rate currently sits at 6.4%.

The largest industry in Greater Bendigo was healthcare and social assistance. In the City of Greater Bendigo there were 628 residential buildings approved to be built in the financial year 2019-20 Feb FYTD.

Dwelling Type Demand Profile

Compared to the national average, there is greater buyer demand for houses in Greater Bendigo City compared to units.

Across Greater Bendigo City, the greatest demand is for three and four bedroom houses, with two and three bedroom units making up only a small portion of the demand profile in the area.

Three bedroom homes makeup the largest demand sector of the market in Greater Bendigo City.

However, there is strong growth in demand for rental units, with the rents growing at 4.08% since Q1 2019. That said, there is little buyer demand for two and three bedroom dwellings and lower sales volumes.

As of Q1 2020 the rental yield for houses and units is 4.25% and 5.69% respectively.

How do Greater Bendigo City houses & units compare to neighbouring LGAs?

According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Greater Bendigo City is around A$422,608 with a -89k to +113K variance compared to the neighbouring LGAs.

The Mount Alexander Shire has a significantly higher median house price, while Mitchell Shire is also far higher than Greater Bendigo City.

House prices in Greater Bendigo City have started 2020 in a positive fashion, climbing by 2.7% as shown on the heat map. In comparison 5 of the remaining 5 neighbouring LGAs exhibited positive growth above 2%, with Lodden Shire being the strongest performer in the area with 8.1%.

  • Lodden Shire: 8.1%
  • Mount Alexander Shire: 5.03%
  • Mitchell Shire: 3.94%
  • Strathbogie Shire: 3.04%
  • Campaspe Shire: 2.0%

The unit market in Greater Bendigo City is limited compared to houses with the units priced at a median value of A$249,101. Neighbouring LGA prices vary in the range of -36K to +115K with the median price for units reported as:

  • Mitchell Shire: A$328,702
  • Campaspe Shire: A$213,471

Unit prices in Greater Bendigo City have seen flat growth in the first quarter of the year with a -0.3% increase. Out of the neighbouring LGAs, Mitchell Shire has seen the highest rate of growth in Q1, with median values by over 7%.

  • Mitchell Shire: 7.25%
  • Campaspe Shire: 2.21%

Property Market Forecast for Greater Bendigo City Houses

HtAG property market data for Greater Bendigo City shows that sales volume for houses had been steadily increasing up until Q3 2018 when it began to drop away sharply.

Sales volumes have been up and down since that point, recently peaking in Q4 2019 with 300 transactions. Rental volumes have been in a steady up trend since Q1 2019.

Median house prices have been consistently gaining since 2008 reaching A$420,000 as of Q2 2020. HtAG forecasts show that this trend is expected to continue well into the second quarter of 2022 where prices will potentially rise to A$450,000.

The median value of 2, 3 and 4 bed houses has been rising steadily since 2008 and currently sit at A$290k, A$370k and A$480k respectively. While, 5 bed houses have grown steadily over that same period of time and have a median price of $560k.

Median rents were flat during the period between 2014 and 2017, but since that point, prices have been steadily increasing to where they currently sit at A$350 per week. Between 2008 and 2013 rents were again steadily rising.

The median rental price of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses is A$270, A$320, $370 and $420 respectively. HtAG forecasts that the median rental value is expected to continue to increase slightly to A$350 by Q2 2022.

Property Cycle Position of Greater Bendigo City Houses

The market cycle graph for Greater Bendigo City shows a wide range in the median price change over the last 12 years since 2008.

Growth got as low as 0.88% in 2016, before rebounding back to the current growth levels of 2.71%..

The highest growth rate came in 2010 where prices were rising at more than 8%, before falling back to its lowest point in 2016.

Growth will continue to increase into 2021 before falling slightly in 2022. Currently house prices are at approximately 7 o’clock on the property clock and are in a small yet steady growth cycle.

According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for this LGA are expected to grow at 3.36% by 2021.

Suburb Capital Growth and Price Variance Heatmaps for Houses in Greater Bendigo City

The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis

The red areas show the suburbs that have decreased in value by 2% in 2020. The suburbs with the weakest growth in that range are Kennington Houses (A$447,000) at 0.05% and Strathdale (A$470,000) at 0.23%.

The yellow and green areas show a percentage increase ranging from 2%-6% with the highest growth in the suburb of North Bendigo at 10.04%. While Bendigo City has seen 5.96% growth in 2020.

Notable Greater Bendigo City Suburbs – Growth in 2020

  • North Bendigo – 10.04% (A$362,000)
  • Bendigo City – 5.96% (A$516,000)
  • White Hills – 5.47% (A$385,000)
  • East Bendigo –  4.57% (A$397,000)

The scatter plot above shows all the individual sales over the past year and their concentration in the LGA.

Maiden Gully and Strathfieldsaye are the high end suburbs where most of the sales in the 700K-1M range occurred. Those suburbs also had pockets where sales took place around the 300-500k range.

The vast majority of sales have been in and around Kennington and Flora Hill in that median price range of 300K to 400K.

There have been less sales in Bendigo city, with most in the 300-500K range.

Property Market Forecast for Greater Bendigo City Units

The median price for units in Greater Bendigo City is sharply lower than the median price for houses.

Units had a median price of A$240k in the second quarter of 2020 which is down from a high of A$250k in Q1. Overall, the trend in median prices has been continually increasing since 2008.

The trend is slightly different with rental prices for units where they hit a peak in 2013 of A$270 per week and remained flat until 2017. Since that point there has been an increase in price to where it sits currently at A$270.

Sales volumes fell away sharply since mid-2018 and have since been climbing to where it peaked with 25 for Q14 2019, before falling away again in 2020.

According to market forecasts by HtAG, the median price of units will increase headed into Q2 2022, to A$250k.

While, the forecast for unit rental prices appears to be continuing to increase. By Q2 2022, it is forecast that the median rent will climb to A$280 per week, from where it is currently at A$270.

Property Cycle Position of Greater Bendigo City Units

Market cycle graph for Greater Bendigo City units below shows the yearly median price change starting from 2008.

Prices have had a significant growth cycle that peaked in 2011 with an annual price change of 7.87%. Since that point in time, price growth of units has slowed. It briefly went negative in 2020 but is expected to climb into 202.

It appears prices are nearing the bottom of the current cycle as growth is currently at -0.3% and likely to increase to 1.26% into 2022 according to HtAG forecasts.

The dark orange line is forecasting unit prices to show increased growth over the next two years, reaching 1.26% by 2022.

According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for units in this LGA are nearing the bottom of the property cycle and would be approximately 6 o’clock on the property clock.

Suburb Capital Growth & Price Variance Heatmaps for Units in Greater Bendigo City

The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis for units in Greater Bendigo City in 2020.

Growth has been 2.7% in 2020, however we must note there has only been 1 sale. Bendigo makes up the bulk of the unit sales in the LGA.

Looking at the scatter plot, there are far fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. The vast majority of sales are concentrated in the suburbs of Kennington, Strathdale, Bendigo and Flora Hill and are in the 200K to 300K range.

Conclusion

Greater Bendigo City appears to be moving away from the bottom of the property cycle with a number of suburbs within the LGA that appear set for strong growth headed into 2022.

Over the next two years, HtAG forecasts Kangaroo Flat houses to grow by +8.92% by Q1 2022 which is assessed as high confidence due to the strong sales volumes (13) in Q1.

Bendigo City is also predicted by HtAG to grow strongly by 8.70% by Q1 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 22 sales.

Over that same period of time, Golden Square (+6.57%) and North Bendigo (+5.54%) houses will all see strong growth which have been assessed with high and medium confidence.

In terms of areas that will likely see weak growth by Q1 2022, HtAG forecasts Flora Hill houses to fall in median value by -0.24% (medium confidence), while Kennington and Strathfieldsaye houses will also see weak growth of 0.32% and 0.70% over that same period with medium and high confidence.

The suburbs that are expected to show the strongest rental yields by Q1 2022 are Long Gully (5.31%), Elmore (5.27%), California Gully (5.08%), Flora Hill (4.89%) and Epsom (4.73%)

For the unit market, the suburb of Bendigo City is predicted to grow at +4.79% by Q1 2022,with low confidence based on limited sales data. Yields for Bendigo City units are forecast to be 4.18% in Q1 2022.

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