Property Market Outlook for Greater Geelong, VIC

The port-city of Geelong is located 75km southwest of Melbourne’s CBD, has the second largest population in Victoria after Melbourne, with 268,277 people.

Today, Geelong stands as an emerging health, education and advanced manufacturing hub although the region has lost some of its heavy manufacturing operations in recent years.

Population increases over the last decade were due to growth in service industries, as the manufacturing sector has declined. Redevelopment of the inner city has occurred since the 1990s, as well as gentrification of inner suburbs, and currently has a population growth rate higher than the national average.

Greater Geelong has been growing steadily with 2019 seeing 2.66% growth.

103,580 people living in the City of Greater Geelong in 2016 were employed, of which 57% worked full-time and 41% part-time. The unemployment rate currently sits at 6.4% .

The largest industry in Greater Geelong was healthcare and social assistance. However, there were more professionals in the City of Greater Geelong in 2016 than any other occupation.

In the City of Greater Geelong there were 1,984 residential buildings approved to be built in the financial year 2019-20 Feb FYTD.

Population268,277
Rental Population23.3%
Unemployment Rate6.4%
IndustryHealthcare, Social Assistance
OccupationProfessionals
Building Approvals1,984
Vacancy Rate1.32%
Summary of key LGA metrics

Dwelling Type Demand Profile

Compared to the national average, there is greater buyer demand for houses in Greater Geelong City compared to units.

Across Greater Geelong City, the greatest demand is for three- and four-bedroom houses, with two- and three-bedroom units making up only a small portion of the demand profile in the area.

Three-bedroom homes makeup the largest demand sector of the market in Greater Geelong City.

However, there is strong growth in demand for rental units, with the rents growing at 3.76% since Q2 2019.

As of Q2 2020 the rental yield for houses and units is 3.21% and 3.99% respectively.

How do Greater Geelong City houses & units compare to neighbouring LGAs?

According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Greater Geelong City is around A$663,901 with a -107k to +243k variance compared to the neighbouring LGAs.

The Surf Coast Shire has a significantly higher median house price, while Wyndham and Moorabool Shires are slightly lower than Greater Geelong City.

House prices in Greater Geelong City have started 2020 in a positive fashion, climbing by 4.8% as shown on the heat map. In comparison 2 of the remaining 3 neighbouring LGAs exhibited positive growth above 3%, with Moorabool Shire being the strongest performer in the area with 4.4%.

  • Moorabool Shire: 4.4%
  • Surf Coast Shire: 3.62%
  • Wyndham City: -1.58%

The unit market in Greater Geelong City is limited compared to houses with the units priced at a median value of A$403,461. Neighbouring LGA prices vary in the range of -72K to +122K with the median price for units reported as:

  • Surf Coast Shire: A$525,296
  • Wyndham City: A$410,423
  • Moorabool Shire: A$331,665

Unit prices in Greater Geelong City have seen strong growth in the first quarter of the year with a 7.67% increase making it the strongest performer of all the adjacent LGAs. Out of the neighbouring LGAs, Wyndham City has seen the next highest rate of growth in Q1, with median values growing by 3.99%.

  • Wyndham City: 3.99%
  • Surf Coast Shire: 3.55%
  • Moorabool Shire: 3.07%

Property Market Forecast for Greater Geelong City Houses

HtAG property market data for Greater Geelong City shows that sales volume for houses had been steadily increasing up until Q2 2018 when it began to drop away sharply.

Sales volumes have been steady since Q1 2019 with more than 470 transactions each quarter since that point. Rental volumes have been in a steady up trend since 2008 with spikes higher in 2013 and 2016.

Median house prices have been consistently gaining since 2008 reaching A$670,000 as of Q2 2020. HtAG forecasts show that this trend is expected to continue well into the second quarter of 2022 where prices will potentially rise to A$730,000.

The median value of 2, 3 and 4 bed houses has been rising steadily since 2008 and currently sit at A$500k, A$560k and A$690 respectively. While, 5 bed houses have grown steadily over that same period of time and have a far greater median price of $930k.

Median rents were flat since Q4 2018 sitting at A$410. The median rental price of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses is A$320, A$380, $370 and $490 respectively. Rents on 5-bedroom houses have been decreasing since Q1 2019. HtAG forecasts that the median rental value is expected to remain flat at A$410 into Q2 2022.

Property Cycle Position of Greater Geelong City Houses

The market cycle graph for Greater Geelong City shows a wide range in the median price change over the last 12 years since 2008.

Growth got as low as 1.64% in 2012, before rebounding back to the growth levels of 8.3% in 2017. The period between 2008 and 2010 was also very strong in Geelong LGA with consistent growth above 8%.

Growth will continue to increase into 2021 before falling slightly in 2022. Currently house prices are at approximately 9-11 o’clock on the property clock and are in a small yet steady growth cycle.

Suburb Capital Growth and Price Variance Heatmaps for Houses in Greater Geelong City

The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis

The green areas show a percentage increase ranging from 7%-13% with the highest growth in the suburb of Little River (12.37%), Rippleside (13.01%), Manifold Heights (12.95%).

Curlewis Houses grew at 4.68% in Q1 2020 and have a median price of A$563,051.

The red areas show the suburbs that have decreased in value by less than 2% in 2020. The suburb with the weakest growth in that range were Armstrong Creek Houses at 0.26%.

Notable Greater Geelong City Suburbs – Growth in 2020:

  • Rippleside – 13.01%
  • Manifold Heights – 12.95%
  • Little River – 12.37%

The scatter plot below shows all the individual sales over the past year and their concentration in the LGA.

Ocean Grove, Manifold Heights and Geelong are the higher end suburbs where most of the sales in the 700K-1M range occurred.

The vast majority of sales have been in and around Norlane in the price range of 300K to 400K.

Sales volumes have been consistent across the entire LGA.

Property Market Forecast for Greater Geelong City Units

 The median price for units in Greater Geelong City is sharply lower than the median price for houses.

Units had a median price of A$410k in the second quarter of 2020. Overall the trend in median prices has been continually increasing since 2008.

The trend is similar with rental prices for units where they have continued to rise to A$310 per week with only a very slight dip in 2012.

Sales volumes fell away sharply since late-2017 and have since been climbing into 2020.

According to market forecasts by HtAG, the median price of units will increase headed into Q2 2022, to A$440k.

While, the forecast for unit rental prices appears to be continuing to increase. By Q2 2022, it is forecast that the median rent will climb to A$330 per week, from where it is currently at A$310.

Property Cycle Position of Greater Geelong City Units

Market cycle graph for Greater Geelong City units below shows the yearly median price change starting from 2008.

Prices have had multiple growth cycles with peaks in 2011 and 2014 and it appears there is another peak put in at the start of 2020.

The annual price change got as high as 8.34% in 2011 and 7.67% in 2020.

It appears prices are nearing the top of the current cycle and it is predicted to fall to 2.86% yearly growth in 2022 according to HtAG forecasts. This is indicated by the orange line.

According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for units in this LGA are nearing the top of the property cycle and would be approximately 12 o’clock on the property clock.

Suburb Capital Growth & Price Variance Heatmaps for Units in Greater Geelong City

The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis for units in Greater Geelong City in 2020.

Growth in Geelong City has been 12.26% in 2020, which is indicated by the dark green. While Ocean Grove also saw growth of 8.82%.

Hernie Hill saw the weakest growth in unit prices at just 0.18%. Curlewis has no data for units on the heat map. However, we must note there has only been 1-3 sales in each of the suburbs mentioned in the unit markets.

Looking at the scatter plot, there are far fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. Sales are evenly distributed around Geelong City and inner suburbs, with prices in the 200K to 300K range.

Conclusion

Greater Geelong City appears to be pushing towards the top of the recent property cycle, however, a number of suburbs within the LGA are set for strong growth headed into 2022.

Over the next two years, HtAG forecasts Hamlyn Heights houses to grow by +11.44% by Q1 2022 which is assessed as high confidence due to the strong sales volumes (5) in Q1.

Geelong West is also predicted by HtAG to grow strongly by 10.78% by Q1 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 7 sales.

Over that same period of time, Leopold (+9.78%), Newtown (+9.64%) and Belmont ( +9.30%) houses will all see strong growth which have been assessed with high confidence.

Curlewis is projected to grow by +2.25% into Q1 2020 and this is assessed as medium confidence based on 10 sales. HtAG has indicated the market is at the peak of its cycle.

In terms of areas that will likely see weak growth by Q1 2022, HtAG forecasts Point Lonsdale houses to fall in median value by -2.38% (medium confidence), while Norlane houses will also see weak growth of -0.05% over that same period with high confidence.

The suburbs that are expected to show the strongest rental yields by Q1 2022 are Norlane (4.99%), Corio (4.33%) and Armstrong Creek (4.13%)

For the unit market, the suburb of Belmont is predicted to grow at +11.87% by Q1 2022, with medium confidence based on limited sales data. Yields for Belmont units are forecast to be 4.22% in Q1 2022.

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