Property Market Outlook for Hume City, Victoria

Hume City is a part of the Melbourne metropolitan area and is one of the fastest-growing and culturally-diverse communities in Victoria. The city is situated on Melbourne’s north-west fringe, between 15 and 45 kilometres from the Melbourne CBD.

The city had a population of 233,471 as of 2019 and residents come from more than 160 different countries and speak approximately 140 languages.

It is made up of a mix of new and established residential areas, major industrial and commercial precincts and vast expanses of rural areas and parkland. The Melbourne International Airport accounts for 10 per cent of the total area of Hume City.

Hume City is also home to major road transit routes including the Tullamarine Freeway, Western Ring Road, Hume Highway and the Craigieburn Bypass and is abutted by the Calder Freeway to the west.

81,026 people living in Hume City in 2016 were employed, of which 62% worked full-time and 36% part-time.

The key employment sectors are manufacturing, transport and storage, with other significant employment in retail, and to a lesser extent, education and health.

In Hume City there were 2,414 residential buildings approved to be built in the financial year 2019-20 Feb FYTD.

Population233,471
Unemployment Rate8.4%
IndustryManufacturing, transport and storage
OccupationNon-Professionals
Building Approvals2,414
Vacancy Rate1.3%
Rental Population22.26%

Dwelling Type Demand Profile

 
Compared to the national average, there is greater buyer demand for houses in Hume City compared to units.

Across Hume City, the greatest demand is for three and four bedroom houses, with two and three bedroom units and semi-detached houses making up only a small portion of the demand profile in the area.

Three bedroom homes makeup the largest demand sector of the market in Hume City, but demand is very similar to four bedroom homes.

As of Q2 2020 the rental gross yield for houses and units is 3.57% and 4.73% respectively.

How do Hume City houses & units compare to neighbouring LGAs?

 
According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Hume City is A$588,843 with a -$80,000 to +$457,000 variance compared to the neighbouring LGAs.

Moreland City and Macedon Ranges Shire have a significantly higher median house price, while Mitchell Shire and Melton City are slightly below Hume City.

  • Moreland City: A$1,045,062
  • Macedon Ranges Shire: A$786,800
  • Brimbank City: A$720,449
  • Whittlesea City: A$631,469 
  • Hume City: A$588,843
  • Melton City: A$547,980
  • Mitchell Shire: A$508,409

House prices in Hume City have started 2020 slowly, falling in value by -2.83% as shown on the heat map. In comparison 2 of the remaining 6 neighbouring LGAs exhibited positive growth above 4%, with Macedon Ranges Shire being the strongest performer in the area with 4.95%.

  • Macedon Ranges Shire: 4.95%
  • Mitchell Shire: 4.21%
  • Brimbank City: 0.67%
  • Whittlesea City: -0.78%
  • Melton City: -1.01%
  • Hume City: -2.83%
  • Moreland City: -2.94%

The unit market in Hume City is limited compared to the house market, with units priced at a median value of A$400,179. Neighbouring LGA prices vary in the range of -$95,000 to +$69,000 with the median price for units reported as:

  • Moreland City A$545,196
  • Hume City: A$400,179
  • Whittlesea City: A$398,041
  • Brimbank City A$392,313
  • Melton City A$355,384
  • Mitchell Shire: A$331,643

Unit prices in Hume City have seen very strong growth in 2020 with a 9.02% increase. Out of the neighbouring LGAs, Hume City has seen the highest rate of growth in 2020, by a significant margin.

  • Mitchell Shire: 9.02%
  • Moreland City: 3.79%
  • Brimbank City: 2.09%
  • Whittlesea City: 0.61%
  • Hume City: 0.43%
  • Melton City: -0.29%

Property Market Forecast for Hume City Houses

 
HtAG property market data for Hume City shows that sales volume for houses had been steadily increasing up until Q4 2017 where it has since eased slightly.

Sales volumes have been averaging 500-700 transactions each quarter since their bottom in Q1 2019. Rental volumes have been in a steady up trend since Q1 2018, but have seen two flat periods in 2014 and from 2015-2017.

Median house prices have increased steadily since 2008 with a peak in 2011 and also in 2018 at A$620,000. Since that point the median value has fallen slightly to A$590,000 as of Q2 2020. HtAG forecasts show that median values are expected to remain flat at A$590,000 into Q2 2022, with a slight dip to A$580,000.

The median value of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses had been rising steadily since 2008. Median values currently sit at A$480,000, A$510,000, A$630,000 and A$750,000 respectively.

Median rents have increased since 2008 but did remain flat between 2010 and 2014 and currently sit at A$410. The median rental price of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses is A$340, A$380, $430 and $480 respectively.

HtAG forecasts that the median rental value is expected to remain steady at A$410 into Q2 2022, although it is predicted to dip to A$400 briefly.

Property Cycle Position of Hume City Houses

 
The market cycle graph for Hume City highlights a considerable change in median price over the last 12 years since 2008.

Growth is currently at -2.83% and is at its lowest level since the dip in 2012-2013 where growth fell to -1.61%. In 2017, growth had been as high as 14.97%, with the prior peak in 2010 at 7.61%.

According to HtAG forecasts, growth rates will move higher from this point into 2021 and 2022 reaching 0.69% in 2022. Currently house prices are at approximately 6 o’clock on the property clock as the growth cycle gradually climbs (bottom).

Suburb Capital Growth and Price Variance Heatmaps for Houses in Hume City

 
The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis.

The green areas show a percentage increase ranging from 3%-5% with the highest growth in the suburb of Jacana (4.84%), Attwood (4.66%) and Campbellfield (4.63%).

  • Sunbury houses grew in value in 2020 by 0.34% to A$641,854
  • Mickleham houses fell in value in 2020 by -3.99% to A$509,657

The scatter plot below shows all the individual sales over the past year and their concentration in the LGA.

Greenvale is the higher end suburb where most of the sales in the A$600,000-A$900,00 range occurred.

The vast majority of sales have been spread evenly around the LGA in the price range of A$400,000-A$600,000.

Property Market Forecast for Hume City Units

 
The median price for units in Hume City is only modestly lower than the median price for houses.

Units had a median price of A$400,000 in the second quarter of 2020 which is currently the peak. Overall, the trend in median prices has been continually increasing since 2008, with a flat period from 2011-2015.

The trend is very similar with rental prices for units where they have been increasing since 2008. The current median rent is A$370 per week.

Sales volumes fell away sharply in late-2017 and have since recovered after a low in 2019.

According to market forecasts by HtAG, the median price of units will increase headed into Q2 2022, to A$410,000 from the current value of A$400,000.

By Q2 2022, it is forecast that the median rent will increase to A$380 per week from the current value of A$370.

Property Cycle Position of Hume City Units

 
Market cycle graph for Hume City units below shows the yearly median price change starting from 2008.

Prices increased significantly in 2011 (3.53%) and 2017 (12.54%). The growth rate fell to -0.26% in 2014 which was the previous lowest level from where it currently sits at 0.43%.

According to HtAG forecasts, that growth in unit values will be increasing to 1.14% into 2022.

According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for units in this LGA are starting to recover after a pull back in capital growth and would be approximately 6 o’clock on the property clock (bottom).

Suburb Capital Growth & Price Variance Heatmaps for Units in Hume City

 The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis for units in Hume City in 2020.

Broadmeadows units grew at 4.23% and Meadow Heights grew at 3.45%.

  • Sunbury units fell in value in 2020 by -0.78% to A$395,017

However, we must note there has only been 2 sales in each of the suburbs mentioned in the unit markets.

Looking at the scatter plot, there are far fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. Sales are evenly distributed around Broadmeadows, Jacana and Sunbury with prices in the A$300,000 to A$400,000 range.

Conclusion

 
Hume City appears to be coming into a period of slowly increasing returns, however, a number of suburbs within the LGA are set for strong growth headed into 2022.

Over the next two years, HtAG forecasts Campbellfield houses to grow by +8.79% by Q2 2022 which is assessed as medium confidence due to the sales volumes (8) in the quarter.

Jacana is also predicted to grow strongly by +6.93% by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having low confidence based on 2 sales.

Dallas is predicted to grow strongly by +6.64% by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having high confidence based on 2 sales.

Coolaroo is predicted to see growth of +6.17% by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having medium confidence based on 4 sales.

Craigieburn is predicted to see growth of +6.09% by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having high confidence based on 38 sales.

Sunbury is predicted to see growth of -0.15% by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having high confidence based on 41 sales. The market cycle is considered to be declining.

Mickleham is predicted to see growth of -3.57% by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having high confidence based on 10 sales. The market cycle is considered to be at the bottom.

The suburbs that are expected to show the strongest rental yields by Q2 2022 are Kalkallo (4.16%), Craigieburn (3.94%%), and Mickleham (3.91%).

For the unit market, the suburb of Sunbury is predicted to grow at +7.19% by Q2 2022, with medium confidence based on 2 sales. Yields for Sunbury units are forecast to be 4.45%in Q2 2022.

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