Property Market Outlook for Mildura LGA, VIC

Mildura is a regional city of Victoria with a population of over 53,878. Mildura is located 475 kilometers north west of Melbourne, about half way between Adelaide and Melbourne. The city is famously known as a major horticultural centre notable for its grape production. It supplies 80% of Victoria’s grapes.

The key industries within the LGA are dryland farming, irrigated horticulture (table grapes, wine grapes, dried grapes, citrus and vegetables), tourism, food and beverage manufacturing, transport and logistics, retail, health and community services

In 2016, 61% of the working population worked full-time and 28% part-time.

More Mildura Rural City residents worked in retail, health care and social assistance than any other industry in 2016.

Population53,878
Unemployment Rate5.5%
IndustryHealthcare, Social Assistance
OccupationNon-Professionals
Building ApprovalsNA
Vacancy Rate0.89%
Rental Population26.1%

Dwelling Type Demand Profile

 
Compared to the national average, there is greater buyer demand for houses in Mildura Rural City compared to units.

Across Mildura Rural City, the greatest demand is for three and four bedroom houses, with two and three bedroom units and three bedroom semi-detached houses making up only a small portion of the demand profile in the area.

Three bedroom homes makeup the largest demand sector of the market in Mildura Rural City.

As of Q2 2020 the rental gross yield for houses and units is 4.92% and 6.6% respectively.

How do Mildura Rural City houses & units compare to neighbouring LGAs?

 
According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Mildura Rural City is A$305,316 with a -$162,000 to +$81,000 variance compared to the neighbouring LGAs.

Wentworth Shire Council has a higher median house price, while Hindmarsh Shire and Yarriambiack Shire are sharply lower than Mildura Rural City.

  • Wentworth Shire Council: A$386,635 
  • Renmark Paringa Council: A$382,296
  • Swan Hill Rural City: A$316,015
  • Mildura Rural City: A$305,316
  • The DC of Loxton Waikerie: A$254,449
  • Hindmarsh Shire: A$143,496
  • Yarriambiack Shire: A$109,712

House prices in Mildura Rural City have started 2020 strongly, increasing 4.09% as shown on the heat map. In comparison 2 of the remaining 6 neighbouring LGAs exhibited positive growth above 4%, with Wentworth Shire Council being the strongest performer in the area with 5.32%.

  • Wentworth Shire Council: 5.32%
  • Yarriambiack Shire: 4.85%
  • Mildura Rural City: 4.09%
  • The DC of Loxton Waikerie: 2.01%
  • Renmark Paringa Council: 1.67%
  • Swan Hill Rural City: 0.54%
  • Hindmarsh Shire: -0.99%

The unit market in Mildura Rural City is limited compared to the house market, with units priced at a median value of A$184,715.

  • Swan Hill Rural City: A$226,386
  • Mildura Rural City: A$184,715

Unit prices in Mildura Rural City have seen very strong growth in 2020 with a 6.47% increase.

  • Mildura Rural City is 6.47%
  • Swan Hill Rural City: 1.90%

Property Market Forecast for Mildura Rural City Houses

 
HtAG property market data for Mildura Rural City shows that sales volume for houses had been steadily decreasing since Q3 2016 where they peaked.

Sales volumes have been averaging 150 transactions each quarter since their bottom in Q2 2019. Rental volumes have been mostly flat since Q1 2015.

Median house prices have been consistently increasing since 2008 reaching A$310,000 as of Q2 2020. HtAG forecasts show that median values are expected to move slightly higher to A$320,000 into Q2 2022.

The median value of 2, 3 and 4 bed houses had been rising steadily since 2008. Median values currently sit at A$210,000, A$280,000 and A$420,000 respectively.

Median rents have increased steadily since 2008 but had small dips in 2011 and 2014 and currently sit at A$290. The median rental price of 2, 3 and 4 bed houses is A$240, A$300 and $310 respectively.

HtAG forecasts that the median rental value is expected to remain steady at A$300 into Q2 2022.

Property Cycle Position of Mildura Rural City Houses

 
The market cycle graph for Mildura Rural City highlights a considerable change in median price over the last 12 years since 2008.

Growth is currently at 4.09% and is declining. In 2015, growth had been as high as 8.72%, with the prior peak in 2010 at 2.4%. There were two previous dips that saw growth fall to 1.54% in 2012 and 3.8% in 2013 and 2018.

According to HtAG forecasts, growth rates will continue lower into 2021 and 2022 reaching 2.05% in 2022. Currently house prices are at approximately 5 o’clock on the property clock as the growth cycle slows (declining).

Suburb Capital Growth and Price Variance Heatmaps for Houses in Mildura Rural City

 
The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis

The green areas show a percentage increase ranging from 9%-11% with the highest growth in the suburb of Red Cliffs (10.82%), Irymple (9.04%) and Merebein (5.67%).

  • Mildura houses grew in value in 2020 by 5.76% to A$315,953

The scatter plot below shows all the individual sales over the past year and their concentration in the LGA.

Mildura and Irymple are the higher end suburbs where most of the sales in the A$500,000-A$600,000 range occurred.

Sales in the range of A$100,000-A$300,000 have been Red Cliffs.

Sales volumes have been consistent across Mildura and Irymple.

Property Market Forecast for Mildura Rural City Units

 
The median price for units in Mildura Rural City is significantly lower than the median price for houses.

Units had a median price of A$180,000 in the second quarter of 2020. Overall, the trend in median prices has been continually increasing since 2008.

The trend is very different with rental prices for units where they have seen two price peaks in 2016 and 2018

The maximum median rent was A$230 where it sits currently, while the lowest level was A$120 per week in Q4 2010.

Sales volumes have been relatively consistent with 10 transactions on average.

According to market forecasts by HtAG, the median price of units will increase headed into Q2 2022, to A$200,000 from the current value of A$180,000.

By Q2 2022, it is forecast that the median rent will increase to A$250 per week from the current value of A$230.

Property Cycle Position of Mildura Rural City Units

 
Market cycle graph for Mildura Rural City units below shows the yearly median price change starting from 2008.

Prices increased significantly in 2013 (5.3%) and 2018 (7.26%) as well as seeing further growth into 2020, where the growth rate looks to have peaked at 6.47%. The growth rate fell to 1.77% in 2015.

According to HtAG forecasts, that growth in unit values will continue to slow to 4.48% into 2021.

According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for units in this LGA are starting to slow down after a strong run of increasing capital growth and would be approximately 12 o’clock on the property clock (peak).

Suburb Capital Growth & Price Variance Heatmaps for Units in Mildura Rural City

 
The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis for units in Mildura Rural City in 2020.

  • Mildura units grew in value in 2020 by 7.57% to A$190,607

However, we must note there have only been 4 sales in the unit market.

Looking at the scatter plot, there are far fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. Sales are evenly distributed around Mildura, with prices in the A$120,000 to A$180,000 range.

Conclusion

 Mildura Rural City appears to be coming into a period of strong returns, with a number of suburbs within the LGA set for solid growth headed into 2022. That said the LGA is assessed at being at its peak for houses.

Over the next two years, HtAG forecasts Mildura houses to grow by +7.32% (to A$339,093) by Q2 2022 which is assessed as high confidence due to the strong sales volumes (15) in the quarter. Mildura is assessed as being at the peak of the market.

Merbein is also predicted to grow strongly by +14.92% (to A$270,531) by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having medium confidence based on 12 sales. Merbein is assessed as a rising market.

Red Cliffs is predicted to grow strongly by +7.76% (to A$327,007) by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having medium confidence based on 16 sales. Red Cliffs is assessed as being at the peak of the market.

Irymple is predicted to see strong growth of +6.82% (to A$447,908) by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having medium confidence based on 4 sales. Irymple is assessed as being at the peak of the market.

The suburbs that are expected to show the strongest rental yields by Q1 2022 are Ouyen (7.42%), Merbein (5.77%), and Mildura (5.43%).

For the unit market, the suburb of Mildura is predicted to grow at +5.93% (to A$201,905) by Q2 2022, with medium confidence based on 4 sales data.

Yields for Mildura units are forecasted to be 7.24% in Q2 2022.

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