Property Market Outlook for Mitchel Shire, VIC

Mitchell Shire is located in central Victoria, about 30-90 kilometres north of the Melbourne CBD and is one of the fastest growing regional municipalities in Victoria.

The city had a population of 46,082 as of 2019 and is expected to reach 270,000 in the next 25-30 years. Most growth is expected in the southern townships of Beveridge, Kilmore, Kilmore East and Wallan.

18,407 people living in Mitchell Shire in 2016 were employed, of which 62% worked full-time and 36% part-time.

More Mitchell Shire residents worked in construction than any other industry in 2016 and features a large portion of technicians and trades workers.

In Mitchell Shire there were 452 residential buildings approved to be built in the financial year 2019-20 Feb FYTD.

Population46,082
Unemployment Rate4.3%
IndustryConstruction
OccupationNon-Professionals
Building Approvals452
Vacancy Rate0.88%
Rental Population19.33%

Dwelling Type Demand Profile

 
Compared to the national average, there is greater buyer demand for houses in Mitchell Shire compared to units.

Across Mitchell Shire, the greatest demand is for three and four bedroom houses, with two and three bedroom units making up only a small portion of the demand profile in the area.

Three bedroom homes makeup the largest demand sector of the market in Mitchell Shire.

As of Q2 2020 the rental gross yield for houses and units is 3.8% and 4.41% respectively.

How do Mitchell Shire houses & units compare to neighbouring LGAs?

 
According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Mitchell Shire is A$508,409 with a -$81,000 to +$278,000 variance compared to the neighbouring LGAs.

Macedon Ranges Shire has a significantly higher median house price, while Greater Bendigo City and Murrindindi Shire are slightly below Mitchell Shire.

  • Macedon Ranges Shire: A$786,800
  • Whittlesea City: A$631,469 
  • Hume City: A$588,843
  • Mitchell Shire: A$508,409
  • Greater Bendigo City: A$455,749
  • Murrindindi Shire: A$448,952
  • Strathbogie Shire: A$427,438

House prices in Mitchell Shire have started 2020 strongly, increasing 3.16% as shown on the heat map. In comparison 4 of the remaining 6 neighbouring LGAs exhibited positive growth above 3%, with Greater Strathbogie Shire being the strongest performer in the area with 5.93%.

  • Strathbogie Shire: 5.93%
  • Macedon Ranges Shire: 4.95%
  • Greater Bendigo City: 4.37%
  • Murrindindi Shire: 4.21%
  • Mitchell Shire: 3.16%
  • Whittlesea City: -0.78%
  • Hume City: -2.83%

The unit market in Mitchell Shire is limited compared to the house market, with units priced at a median value of A$331,643. Neighbouring LGA prices vary in the range of -$95,000 to +$69,000 with the median price for units reported as:

  • Hume City: A$400,179
  • Whittlesea City: A$398,041
  • Mitchell Shire: A$331,643
  • Greater Bendigo City: A$236,720

Unit prices in Mitchell Shire have seen very strong growth in 2020 with a 9.02% increase. Out of the neighbouring LGAs, Mitchell Shire has seen the highest rate of growth in 2020, by a significant margin.

  • Mitchell Shire: 9.02%
  • Whittlesea City: 0.61%
  • Hume City: 0.43%
  • Greater Bendigo City: -0.67%

Property Market Forecast for Mitchell Shire Houses

 
HtAG property market data for Mitchell Shire shows that sales volume for houses had been steadily increasing up until Q1 2019 where it fell away slightly.

Sales volumes have been averaging 130-150 transactions each quarter since their bottom in Q1 2019. Rental volumes have been in a steady up trend since Q1 2018, but have always risen since 2008.

Median house prices have been consistently increasing since 2008 reaching A$510,000 as of Q2 2020. HtAG forecasts show that median values are expected to move slightly higher to A$520,000 into Q2 2022.

The median value of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses had been rising steadily since 2008. Median values currently sit at A$360,000, A$430,000, A$570,000 and A$670,000 respectively.

Median rents have increased steadily since 2008 but had small dips in 2013 and 2014 and currently sit at A$370. The median rental price of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses is A$290, A$340, $400 and $440 respectively.

HtAG forecasts that the median rental value is expected to remain steady at A$370 into Q2 2022.

Property Cycle Position of Mitchell Shire Houses

 
The market cycle graph for Mitchell Shire highlights a considerable change in median price over the last 12 years since 2008.

Growth is currently at 3.06% and is at its lowest level since 2015 and is declining. In 2018, growth had been as high as 9.43%, with the prior peak in 2012 at 3.88%. There were two previous dips that saw growth fall to 1.94% in 2011 and 1.74% in 2013.

According to HtAG forecasts, growth rates will continue lower into 2021 and 2022 reaching 0.59% in 2022. Currently house prices are at approximately 5 o’clock on the property clock as the growth cycle slows (declining).

Suburb Capital Growth and Price Variance Heatmaps for Houses in Mitchell Shire

 
The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis

The green areas show a percentage increase ranging from 6%-7% with the highest growth in the suburb of Seymour (7.64%), Avenel (4.93%) and Kilmore (4.9%).

  • Kilmore houses grew in value in 2020 by 4.9% to A$5502,904
  • Wallan houses grew in value in 2020 by 2.6% to A$511,931
  • Beveridge houses grew in value in 2020 by 1.77% to A$600,200

The red areas show the suburbs that have decreased in value by less than 2.7% in 2020. The suburb with the weakest growth in that range was Beveridge Houses at 1.77%.

The scatter plot below shows all the individual sales over the past year and their concentration in the LGA.

Wangond is the higher end suburb where most of the sales in the A$600,000-A$900,00 range occurred.

The vast majority of sales have been in and around Kilmore, Wallan and Broadford in the price range of A$400,000-A$550,000.

Sales volumes have been consistent across the town centre areas of the LGA.

Property Market Forecast for Mitchell Shire Units

 
The median price for units in Mitchell Shire is only modestly lower than the median price for houses.

Units had a median price of A$330,000 in the second quarter of 2020. Overall, the trend in median prices has been continually increasing since 2008, with a flat period from 2013-2015.

The trend is very different with rental prices for units where they have seen three price peaks in 2011, 2015 and 2018 followed by subsequent falls.

The maximum median rent was A$300 per week in Q4 2018, while the lowest level was A$220 per week in Q4 2013. The median rent is currently $270 per week.

Sales volumes fell away sharply in late-2017 and remain low at under 10 transactions on average.

According to market forecasts by HtAG, the median price of units will increase headed into Q2 2022, to A$360,000 from the current value of A$330,000.

By Q2 2022, it is forecast that the median rent will increase to A$280 per week from the current value of A$270.

Property Cycle Position of Mitchell Shire Units

 
Market cycle graph for Mitchell Shire units below shows the yearly median price change starting from 2008.

Prices increased significantly in 2013 (6.15%) and 2018 (7.9%) as well as seeing further growth into 2020, where the growth rate peaked at 9.02%. The growth rate fell to 0.93% in 2015.

According to HtAG forecasts, that growth in unit values will continue to slow to 2.97% into 2022.

According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for units in this LGA are starting to slow down after a strong run of increasing capital growth and would be approximately 12 o’clock on the property clock (peak).

Suburb Capital Growth & Price Variance Heatmaps for Units in Mitchell Shire

 
The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis for units in Mitchell Shire in 2020.

  • Wallan units grew in value in 2020 by 3.91% to A$350,324
  • Kilmore units grew in value in 2020 by 2.1% to A$325,392

However, we must note there has only been 2-5 sales in each of the suburbs mentioned in the unit markets.


Looking at the scatter plot, there are far fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. Sales are evenly distributed around Wallan and Kilmore, with prices in the A$300,000 to A$400,000 range.


Conclusion

 
Mitchell Shire appears to be coming into a period of lower returns, however, a number of suburbs within the LGA are set for continued solid growth headed into 2022.

Over the next two years, HtAG forecasts Seymour houses to grow by +7.37% by Q2 2022 which is assessed as high confidence due to the strong sales volumes (4) in the quarter.

Wallan is also predicted to grow strongly by +6.18% (to A$543,570) by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 9 sales. Wallan is assessed as a rising market.

Kilmore is predicted to grow strongly by +5.53% (to A$530,700) by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 8 sales. Kilmore is assessed as a declining market.

Beveridge is predicted to see modest growth of +0.87% (to A$605,437) by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having medium confidence based on 4 sales. Beveridge is assessed as a declining market.

In terms of areas that will likely see weak growth by Q1 2022, HtAG forecasts Broadford houses to grow in median value by only 0.15% with high confidence.

The suburbs that are expected to show the strongest rental yields by Q1 2022 are Broadford (4.58%), Avenel (4.51%), and Flowerdale (4.05%).

For the unit market, the suburb of Wallan is predicted to grow at +4.47% by Q2 2022, with low confidence based on limited sales data. Kilmore is expected to grow at +3.51% with high confidence.

Yields for Wallan and Kilmore units are forecast to be 4.82% and 4.88% respectively in Q2 2022.

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