Property Market Outlook Wyndham City, VIC

Wyndham City is located in the outer south-western suburbs of Melbourne and is one of the fastest growing areas in Victoria.

The city had a population of 270,487 as of June 2018 and is the second largest local Government area in the state. Its population growth rate is also the second highest in the state at 5.9% and is currently a designated growth area of Melbourne.

The key industrial areas within the LGA are Laverton North and Truganina and the major industries are manufacturing and logistics. The professional and commercial sector includes Victoria University, CSIRO Food Innovation Centre and the University of Melbourne Veterinary Clinic and Hospital.

98,409 people living in the City of Wyndham in 2016 were employed, of which 66% worked full-time and 32% part-time.

More City of Wyndham residents worked in health care and social assistance than any other industry in 2016.

In the City of Wyndham there were 3,601 residential buildings approved to be built in the financial year 2019-20 Feb FYTD.

Population270,487
Rental Population25.85%
IndustryHealthcare, Social Assistance
OccupationProfessionals
Building Approvals3,601
Vacancy Rate2.17%
Unemployment Rate5.4%

Dwelling Type Demand Profile

 
Compared to the national average, there is greater buyer demand for houses in Wyndham City compared to units.

Across Wyndham City, the greatest demand is for three and four bedroom houses, with two and three bedroom units making up only a small portion of the demand profile in the area. There is also some small demand for three bedroom semi-detached housing.

Four bedroom homes makeup the largest demand sector of the market in Wyndham City.

As of Q2 2020 the rental gross yield for houses and units is 3.66% and 4.55% respectively, with (gross) yields on houses rising by 1.22%.

How do Wyndham City houses & units compare to neighbouring LGAs?

 
According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Wyndham City is A$551,481 with a -$4,000 to +$534,000 variance compared to the neighbouring LGAs.

Hobsons Bay City has a significantly higher median house price, while Melton City and Moorabool Shires are comparable to Wyndham City.

House prices in Wyndham City have started 2020 slowly, falling by -1.45% as shown on the heat map. In comparison 2 of the remaining 5 neighbouring LGAs exhibited positive growth above 3%, with Greater Geelong City being the strongest performer in the area with 4.03%.

  • Greater Geelong City: 4.03%
  • Moorabool Shire: 3.88%
  • Brimbank City: 0.67%
  • Melton City: -1.01%
  • Hobsons Bay City: -1.32%
  • Wyndham City: -1.45%

The unit market in Wyndham City is limited compared to the house market, with units priced at a median value of A$399,966. Neighbouring LGA prices vary in the range of -$45,000 to +$135,000 with the median price for units reported as:

  • Hobsons Bay City: A$535,192
  • Greater Geelong City: A$414,485
  • Brimbank City: A$392,313
  • Wyndham City: A$399,966
  • Melton City: A$355,384

Property Market Forecast for Wyndham City Houses

HtAG property market data for Wyndham City shows that sales volume for houses had been steadily increasing up until Q1 2018 when it began to drop away.

Sales volumes recovered and have been steady with more than 480 transactions each quarter since their bottom in Q1 2019. Rental volumes have been in a steady up trend since Q1 2013.

Median house prices have been consistently increasing since 2008 reaching A$570,000 as of Q1 2019. Since that point, median values have declined to A$550,000. HtAG forecasts show that median values are expected to continue to remain steady at A$550,000 into Q2 2022.

The median value of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses had been rising steadily since 2008 before falling away in a similar pattern since Q1 2019. Median values currently sit at A$440,000, A$500,000, A$610,000 and A$650,000 respectively.

Median rents have increased steadily since 2008 but have remained flat since Q1 2019 sitting at A$390. The median rental price of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses is A$340, A$350, $400 and $460 respectively.

HtAG forecasts that the median rental value is expected to increase to A$400 into Q2 2022.

Property Cycle Position of Wyndham City Houses

The market cycle graph for Wyndham City highlights a considerable change in median price over the last 12 years since 2008.

Growth is currently at -1.45% and is at its lowest level since 2008. In 2008, growth had been at 0.45% before climbing to the level of 18.9% in 2017.

According to HtAG forecasts, growth will be relatively flat into 2021 and 2022. Currently house prices are at approximately 6 o’clock on the property clock and are in a neutral position in the growth cycle (bottom).

Suburb Capital Growth and Price Variance Heatmaps for Houses in Wyndham City

 
The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis

The green areas show a percentage increase ranging from 7%-13% with the highest growth in the suburb of Manor Lakes (3.78%), Werribee South (2.51%) and Werribee (2.16%).

  • Tarneit houses grew in value in 2020 by 0.06% to A$588,805
  • Werribee houses grew in value in 2020 by 2.16% to A$579,472
  • Wyndham Vale houses fell in value in 2020 by -1.12% to A$491,560

The red areas show the suburbs that have decreased in value by less than 2% in 2020. The suburb with the weakest growth in that range were Wyndham Vale Houses at -1.12%.

The scatter plot below shows all the individual sales over the past year and their concentration in the LGA.

Point Cook and Williams Landing are the higher end suburbs where most of the sales in the A$600,000-A$900,00 range occurred.

The vast majority of sales have been in and around Werribee in the price range of A$400,000-A$550,000.

Sales volumes have been consistent across the inner areas of the LGA.

Property Market Forecast for Wyndham City Units

The median price for units in Wyndham City is only modestly lower than the median price for houses.

Units had a median price of A$400,000 in the second quarter of 2020. Overall, the trend in median prices has been continually increasing since 2014.

The trend is similar with rental prices for units where they have continued to rise to A$350 per week in Q1 2019, where they remained flat since that point.

Sales volumes fell away sharply in late-2017 and have since flattened out to the current levels after the big rise from mid-2015.

According to market forecasts by HtAG, the median price of units will increase headed into Q2 2022, to A$410,000 from the current value of A$400,000.

By Q2 2022, it is forecast that the median rent will increase to A$360 per week from the current value of A$350.

Property Cycle Position of Wyndham City Units

Market cycle graph for Wyndham City units below shows the yearly median price change starting from 2008.

Prices increased significantly between 2013 and 2017 where growth peaked at 13.73%. Since that point, prices have been growing just at a slower rate.

According to HtAG forecasts, that growth in unit values will continue to slow to 0.9% into 2022.

According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for units in this LGA are still slowing and would be approximately 5 o’clock on the property clock (declining).

Suburb Capital Growth & Price Variance Heatmaps for Units in Wyndham City

The heatmap below represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis for units in Wyndham City in 2020.

  • Werribee units fell in value in 2020 by -3.86% to A$365,545
  • Wyndham Vale units grew in value in 2020 by 5.2% to A$387,300
  • Tarneit units had no data for this period

Hoppers Crossing units grew in value in 2020 by 1.7% to A$394,458 However, we must note there has only been 1-3 sales in each of the suburbs mentioned in the unit markets.

Looking at the scatter plot, there are far fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. Sales are evenly distributed around Werribee and Laverton, with prices in the 400K to 500K range.

Conclusion

Wyndham City appears to be coming towards the bottom of the property cycle, with a number of suburbs within the LGA set for strong growth headed into 2022.

Over the next two years, HtAG forecasts Laverton houses to grow by +6.57% by Q2 2022 which is assessed as high confidence due to the strong sales volumes (6) in the quarter.

Manor Lakes is also predicted to grow strongly by +4.95% by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 6 sales.

Werribee is predicted to grow strongly by +2.67% by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 40 sales.

Wyndham Vale is predicted to grow by +2.67% by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 8 sales.

Tarneit is predicted to grow by +0.29% by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 26 sales.

In terms of areas that will likely see weak growth by Q1 2022, HtAG forecasts Hoppers Crossing houses to fall in median value by -0.03% with high confidence.

The suburbs that are expected to show the strongest rental yields by Q1 2022 are Tarneit (3.91%), Wyndham Vale (3.73%), Williams Landing (3.46%) and Werribee (3.37%).

For the unit market, the suburb of Wyndham Vale is predicted to grow at +5.35% by Q2 2022, with low confidence based on limited sales data. Werribee is expected to grow at -0.02% with high confidence.

Yields for Wyndham Vale and Werribee units are forecast to be 4.05% and 4.92% respectively in Q2 2022.

Need help interpreting the data above? See our FAQ page.

Leave a comment