Essendon, VIC 3040
Moonee Valley City, Victoria
Good to Know
Essendon, VIC 3040 is a high-value house market in the Moonee Valley City Council area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Located about 8km north‑west of Melbourne CBD, Essendon is home to roughly 21,240 residents across 11,331 dwellings, with a vacancy rate of 1.44%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Essendon is exhibiting constrained supply and steady rental demand. Stock on Market sits at 0.33% and Inventory at 2.42 months — slightly below the ~3‑month balanced‑market threshold — driving +8.1% YoY price growth and +3.0% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Essendon’s recent performance — +8.1% annual price growth versus +3.0% rent growth — points to a capital‑growth led cycle where prices are outpacing rental returns. Low listing supply (Stock on Market 0.33%) combined with fast marketing times (DOM 26 days) is propping up price momentum even as gross yield remains thin at 2.0%.
Explore relative short‑term heatmap signals on the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Essendon — and why it matters for investors
Essendon’s IRSAD 1083 indicates an affluent socioeconomic profile, which tends to support lower volatility and resilient demand for owner‑occupier buyers. The area’s mix (Units/Houses ratio 57%) and neutral renter/owner balance (36%) both influence turnover rates and rental market dynamics.
For more on how socioeconomic crossover affects property outcomes see the IRSAD Crossover study.
Why suburb-level data matters for Essendon
Council‑level averages can mask what’s happening in a specific pocket like Essendon. Your decision should rest on Essendon’s own metrics — for example: a typical house price of $1,959,763, gross yield of 2.0%, Stock on Market 0.33%, Inventory 2.42 months and median days on market 26. These suburb‑level readings tell a different story than a high‑level council average could.
Read more about why granular screening matters in our LGA vs Suburb research. For a downloadable breakdown see the full Essendon data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 69
HtAG’s RCS™ (69) bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital‑growth potential and cashflow resilience — into one composite to aid strategy alignment. Reviewing the component sub‑scores tells you whether Essendon better suits a growth or a stability‑first approach.
Learn more about how the RCS™ is built, or open Essendon in HtAG Copilot to explore sub‑score detail.
Forward signals to watch
The vacancy rate — currently 1.44%: this balanced reading suggests stable rental conditions; a sustained drop below 1% over 12–24 months would tighten the rental market and likely accelerate rent growth.
The building approvals ratio — currently 1.12%: a neutral development signal. If approvals trend above 2% it would add supply pressure over time; at present fresh supply is unlikely to materially upset tight listing conditions.
The wider Melbourne cycle phase: a city‑level shift into a slowdown would likely cool Essendon’s price momentum, while continued metropolitan strength supports further capital growth locally.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Essendon's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Critical to know
Market Trends
Essendon's headline values — $1,959K to buy and $754PW to rent, a 2.0% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 40.36% and rents 54.19% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$1,959K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$754PW today, with rent growth at (+3.01% YoY) compared to price growth (+8.12%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Essendon in its cycle - and is the 2.0% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Essendon's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Essendon carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Essendon's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Essendon can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Essendon genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Essendon prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Essendon - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Essendon looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Essendon's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Essendon has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Essendon shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Essendon has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Essendon 3040 VIC is 18,063, with a median age of 39. Of those, 45.37% are married, 9.92% are divorced or separated, 40.26% are single and 4.47% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.4 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $11,784. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $2,275 which is 19.31% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)