Box Hill, VIC 3128
Whitehorse City, Victoria
Good to Know
Box Hill, VIC 3128 is a high-value house market in the Whitehorse City Council area, currently positioned as a price-constrained, long-hold capital growth submarket. Located about 14 km east of Melbourne CBD, it is home to roughly 14,353 adults across 10,713 dwellings and records a vacancy rate of 1.47%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Box Hill is exhibiting mixed supply–demand behaviour. Stock on Market sits at 0.27% and Inventory at 4.11 months — just above the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +0.7% YoY price growth and +2.2% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Box Hill’s data shows constrained listings but only modest price upside. A very low Stock on Market (0.27%) and short days on market (32 days) indicate strong vendor confidence and limited supply, while a low gross yield (2.26%) and slow price growth (+0.7% YoY) show rental returns are weak relative to capital values.
Compare these signals visually on the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap to see where Box Hill sits vs other suburbs.
Who lives in Box Hill — and why it matters for investors
Box Hill records an IRSAD of 989, which sits above the recommended minimum of 927 and points to relatively high socio‑economic conditions. That said, a 58.0% renter share and a high units/houses mix (81.0%) are unfavourable for owner-occupier stability and can increase short-term turnover and rental churn.
For more on how local advantage and disadvantage can alter volatility and growth, see the IRSAD Crossover study.
Why suburb-level data matters for Box Hill
Decisions should be based on Box Hill’s own metrics: Typical house price $1,579,553, gross yield 2.26%, Stock on Market 0.27%, Inventory 4.11 months and median days on market 32. Those numbers describe a high‑priced, low‑yield pocket where rental returns are constrained even while listings remain tight.
Council- or LGA-level averages can mask these local dynamics — read more in our LGA vs Suburb research. For a printable breakdown, get the full Box Hill data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 25
HtAG’s RCS™ (overall 25) bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into one composite to help match markets to strategy. A low overall score here reflects low yield and affordability pressure alongside modest capital growth.
Dig into the sub-score breakdown to match Box Hill to an investment plan and learn how the RCS™ is built. Or open Box Hill in HtAG Copilot to model scenarios.
Forward signals to watch
The vacancy rate — currently 1.47%: a sustained balanced vacancy around 1.5% typically supports steady rents but is unlikely to fuel rapid rental inflation over the next 12–24 months.
The building approvals ratio — currently 1.94%: a neutral reading that suggests moderate development activity; it’s enough to add supply without overwhelming the market in the short term.
The wider Melbourne cycle phase: if Melbourne moves into a stronger expansion phase, Box Hill’s constrained listings and amenity profile would likely lift local momentum; a city-wide downturn would increase downside risk given weak yields and stretched affordability.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Box Hill's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Market Trends
Box Hill's headline values — $1,579K to buy and $685PW to rent, a 2.25% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved -5.53% and rents 43.22% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$1,579K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$685PW today, with rent growth at (+2.23% YoY) compared to price growth (+0.69%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Box Hill in its cycle - and is the 2.25% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Box Hill's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Box Hill carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Box Hill's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Box Hill can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Box Hill genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Box Hill prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Box Hill - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Box Hill looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Box Hill's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Box Hill has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Box Hill shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Box Hill has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Box Hill 3128 VIC is 12,970, with a median age of 33. Of those, 38.85% are married, 9.90% are divorced or separated, 46.96% are single and 4.25% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.2 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $6,376. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,950 which is 30.58% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)