The Council of the Shire of Hornsby, NSW

Hornsby Shire is a local government area in the state of New South Wales, Australia, including sections of Northern Sydney and the Hills District. The shire is the biggest local government council by total area in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area.

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Property values in the LGA are very closely tied to the economic success of the county’s largest city. After experiencing very strong price growth, the Sydney property boom is slowing down, however the prices in Hornsby Shire are still on the rise.

The Hornsby Real Estate Market is one of Sydney’s most dynamic development zones. It is an area that has gone from a collection of sleepy little town to being a major hub in less than 10 years. Developers build up apartment blocks at a high rate with many more in the pipeline which may be a signal for over-supply in the unit segment. However because of new developments, there are new cafes, restaurants and shops opening all the time, which draws in additional population from other Sydney LGAs

Despite new apartment developments In Hornsby, 73.4 % of occupied private residences are detached houses and 8.7 % are semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses, or other dwellings. The remaining 17.3 % are flats or apartments.

Professionals (33.7 %), Managers (15.6 %), Clerical and Administrative Workers (14.6 %), Technicians and Trades Workers (9.8 %), and Community and Personal Service Workers (8.8 %) are the most prevalent jobs in Hornsby. In Hornsby LGA, the typical weekly personal income for residents aged 15 years and above is $793.

In order to find out what factors influence a Hornsby Real Estate Market rises and falls, feel free to explore the data for Hornsby LGA suburbs using our interactive dashboard below.

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Capital Growth Heatmap

Property Market Snapshot

This page provides an overview of the LGA real estate market. The data in this snapshot illustrates typical price, median rent and gross yield metrics for this council area. You are able to drill down to suburb-level data and charts which visualise these 3 key metrics as well as other important indicators in the dashboard section that follows.

Buy

2BR

3BR

4BR

5BR

Typical Price for houses in this council area. Percent changes indicate Year on Year growth or decline in house values. Council area house prices are calculated by averaging Typical Price of all suburbs within the area. Typical Price is a more accurate metric than Median Price.

Rent

2BR

3BR

4BR

5BR

Median Weekly Rent for houses in this council area. Percent changes indicate Year on Year growth or decline in rental prices. Calculated via median value formula applied to rental prices from online listings.

Yield

2BR

3BR

4BR

5BR

Yearly Gross Yield for houses in this council area. Calculated by multiplying the Median Rent by 52 and dividing the resulting value by Typical Price. Percent changes indicate Year on Year growth or decline in Gross Yield for houses.

Buy

1BR

2BR

3BR

Typical Price for units in this council area. Percent changes indicate Year on Year growth or decline in unit values. Council area house prices are calculated by averaging Typical Price of all suburbs within the area. Typical Price is a more accurate metric than Median Price.

Rent

1BR

2BR

3BR

Median Weekly Rent for units in this council area. Percent changes indicate Year on Year growth or decline in rental prices. Calculated via median value formula applied to rental prices from online listings.

Yield

1BR

2BR

3BR

Yearly Gross Yield for units in this council area. Calculated by multiplying the Median Rent by 52 and dividing the resulting value by Typical Price. Percent changes indicate Year on Year growth or decline in Gross Yield for units.

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How to use this Dashboard

This interactive dashboard illustrates the trends for key real estate metrics in the area. Use these metrics to determine potential return on investment from this property market and its’ sub-markets.

Upgrade to Personal Plan to unlock the trend forecast section on the Price, Rent & Yield graphs.

Get the Professional Subscription to see trends for advanced metrics such as Buy & Rent Search Index that indicate real estate demand and supply in this LGA.

Upgrade to Professional Plan to see Growth Rate Cycle data.

Property Market in The Council of the Shire of Hornsby, NSW

What other property markets are there near The Council of the Shire of Hornsby, NSW?

The Council of the Shire of Hornsby is surrounded by 7 other council areas – Northern Beaches, Hawkesbury, The Hills Shire, Central Coast, Ku-Ring-Gai, Parramatta, Ryde.

Suburbs/localities in this Local Government Area: Asquith 2077, Cowan 2081, Dangar Island 2083, Dural 2158, Fiddletown 2159, Forest Glen 2157, Galston 2159, Glenorie 2157, Hornsby 2077, Hornsby Heights 2077, Laughtondale 2775, Beecroft 2119, Middle Dural 2158, Milsons Passage 2083, Mount Colah 2079, Mount Kuring-Gai 2080, Normanhurst 2076, North Epping 2121, Berowra 2081, Berowra Heights 2082, Berowra Waters 2082, Berrilee 2159, Pennant Hills 2120, Singletons Mill 2775, Thornleigh 2120, Wahroonga 2076, Waitara 2077, Westleigh 2120, Wisemans Ferry 2775, Brooklyn 2083, Arcadia 2159, Canoelands 2157, Castle Hill 2154, Cheltenham 2119, Cherrybrook 2126

2 thoughts on “The Council of the Shire of Hornsby, NSW”

  1. 2020-2021 Property Market Outlook for The Shire of Hornsby, NSW

    The market for houses in all LGAs around Sydney performed badly 2019 Q3. However, the Shire of Hornsby fared worse than most of its neighbouring LGAs, which all experience price falls.

    The market for houses in the Shire of Hornsby showed YoY sales price falls of 6.86 percent during Q3 2019. Neighbouring Northern Beaches to the East saw prices fall 4.29 percent and the Hills Shire to the West saw house sales registering an average price fall of 5.49 percent. Moving north from the Shire of Hornsby, price falls lessen. Central Coast saw price falls of 3.64 percent in Q3 2019. Looking to the North of Central Coast, prices increased during the last quarter as the influence of the Sydney housing market lessens: Lake Macquarie, Cessnock City, and Newcastle City to the north increased by 0.24, 2.58, and 1.49 percent respectively.

    House sales volumes in the Shire of Hornsby were comparable to its immediate neighbours. The LGA saw the sale of 157 houses in Q3 2019 compared to 117 sales in the Hills Shire and 123 sales in Northern Beaches. The market was more active in Central Coast, to the north with 356 sales.

    The market for units in the Shire of Hornsby also experienced the largest price falls in region during Q3 2019. The average unit sales price fell by 6.42 percent. In comparison, prices fell by 3.29 percent in Northern Beaches and 5 percent in the Hills Shire. The market for units fared better in Central Coast, where prices fell by 0.56 percent. Closer to the centre of Sydney, Ku-ring-gai saw unit prices rise by 0.79 percent.

    Unit sales volumes were low in the areas that showed better price performance, however: 23 sales in Ku-ring-gai and 24 in Central Coast, 35 in the Shire of Hornsby, and 10 units in the Hills Shire. Only Northern Beaches showed respectable unit sales levels with 109 units sold during the quarter.

    The demand for houses in the LGA is a great deal higher than the average rate of sales for all local government areas in Australia, while the sales rate for units is slightly lower than the national average. Demand for houses for rent is a little lower in the area than the national average and the demand for units for rent is considerably lower.

    Over the past year, prices for houses have fallen in the LGA by 6.45 percent, while prices for units fell by 6.07 percent. The movement in prices the rental sector was negative for both houses and units with falls of 3.79 and 4.78 percent respectively. Those falls in rent levels were not as steep as the sales prices. In the case of the house rental sector, average yields actually improved by 2.89 percent.

    The demand profile above shows that four bedroom houses sold in far greater quantities than any other property type and size during 2018 – 2019. Three and five bedroom houses also sold in high volumes.

    Interest in units settles on one and two bedroom properties – a size that shows far less demand in the house sale sector.

    House prices in Hornsby Shire

    House sales volumes have been volatile, surging and falling with no clear pattern. There is no specific season that can be said to see regular sales volumes rises or falls. However, the trend in house sales volumes has been in overall decline since 2014. The most active quarters in the history of house sales in the Shire of Hornsby saw volumes of 680 houses. In the last quarter, only 160 house sales completed.

    House prices peaked in Q3 2017. HtAG analysis expects that sales volume will rise slightly quarter on quarter with steadily lower prices over the next year.

    The rental market shows that the LGA seems to be switching over from a district of home owners to a place for renters. As sales volumes have dropped, house rental volumes have increased strongly to 590 new contracts in the last quarter. The last quarter had good news for those who buy to let because yields increased. However, HtAG foresees a dramatic fall in rent levels over the next two years, which will greatly outstrip the fall in house sale prices.

    Price changes in the house market shows that the Shire of Hornsby has been a good place to buy from 2008 to 2017. The LGA’s average property price changes never dipped into negative territory since the beginning of the graph’s timeline but that situation changed dramatically in 2018.

    Year-on-year price increases for houses stood at 8.83 percent at the beginning of 2017, but by January of the following year, that strong growth evaporated and yearly price changes switched down to a loss of 2.52 percent. That decline increased at the beginning of 2019 with a price fall of 6.45 percent.

    The heatmap of house price changes for the Shire of Hornsby in 2019 Q3 shows no clear pattern. Districts that show heavy price falls neighbour areas that show the strongest price gains. There is no clear pattern to the price falls. So, it cannot be said that one side of the LGA is a better bet for property than another.

    For example, the steepest price falls in the quarter occurred in the Mount Colah area where prices fell by 7.62 percent. Prices rose by 3.47 percent in the neighbouring Mount Luring-Gai area. The strongest price rises occurred in Galston with a rise of 7.76 percent. Although Galston does not border Mount Colah, the two areas are very close, separated by a very short distance with the district of Hornsby height, which showed price growth of 1.17 percent.

    The irregular price performance pattern of these four areas is repeated across the Shire of Hornsby. However, the sales volumes during the quarter were low: 6 house sales in Mount Colah, 4 in Galston, 2 in Mount Kuring-Gai, and 7 in Hornsby Heights.

    The scatter map above shows much more intense sales activity in the south of the LGA and almost no sales in the north. This reflects the varied nature of the Shire of Hornsby with the South forming part of Sydney’s suburbs and the North and West including sparsely populated rural areas.

    Unit prices in Hornsby LGA

    The market for units in the Shire of Hornsby LGA is not as active as the house markets with only 35 units sold in the last quarter. The rental sector is much more active, with 700 contracts being finalized in the LGA in 2019 Q3.

    As with the house sales market, unit sales volumes have been erratic since 2008. The last quarter showed the lowest unit sales volume since Q1 2008. However, the previous quarter saw 91 units sold. Historically, apart from the occasional anomaly, unit sales volumes have been trending lower.

    Average unit sales prices peaked in Q4 2017 at A$760,000. Prices have been falling since that date with the average unit sale price in the last quarter registering at A$680,000. HtAG expects that prices will continue to fall over the next two years, but unit sales volumes should improve steadily.

    The rental market has expanded continually in the Shire of Hornsby since 2009, reinforcing the LGA’s profile as a rental neighbourhood. The average rent level has been flat at around A$500 since the beginning of 2017. Average rents have dipped slightly to A$490 over the past year and HtAG expects those levels to drop a little further to A$480 over the next two years. HtAG also believes that rental volumes will dip slightly from its peak of 700 rental contracts in the last quarter down to about 61 in Q4 2021.

    The fall in rent levels in the unit sector will be a lot less dramatic than the fall in rent levels in the housing sector over the next two years. As unit sales prices are expected to fall at a faster rate than rent levels, the next two years should see rent yields rise in the unit sector.

    The price change graph for units has a very similar trend to the graph for house price changes in the LGA. This has been a very good property sector for investors looking for capital growth all the way from 2008 up to the beginning of 2017. Events during 2017 took price changes into negative territory. Year-on-year prices for units rose by 7.91 percent at the beginning of 2017 but unit prices fell by 1.33 percent in the year to January 2018.

    The falling price trend continued into 2019 and HtAG predicts that prices will continue to fall over the next two years, though at a gradually decreasing rate.

    The heatmap of unit sales in the Shire of Hornsby shows great price change variations within the LGA. However, in most of these areas, unit sales volumes were in single figures. Castle Hill showed the worst price performance with an average sale price fall of 4.67 percent over 6 sales. The highest average unit sales price increase occurred in Wahroonga, but that area had only two sales.

    Hornsby and Waitara had the highest unit sales volumes during the past quarter with 16 and 12 unit sales respectively. Prices fell slightly in both of those districts – by 1.55 percent in Hornsby and by 0.94 percent in Waitara.

    The scatter plot of unit sales shows that most unit sales occurred in the south of the LGA with none in the larger rural zones in the North. The price bracket of A$700,000 to A$800,000 was more active than any other unit price range.

    Conclusion

    The property market in the Shire of Hornsby has turned sour since 2017. Whereas once, the LGA was a very good place to invest in property falling valuations and steeply declining rental yields over the next few years make the LGA a place to avoid while the market correction runs its course. The unpredictability of price performance within the LGA is another worrying factor that should discourage professional investors from buying property in the Shire of Hornsby. Those who have a strong local knowledge may be able to read the market a little better because price changes seem to be influenced by the state of individual properties rather than by the status of the areas that they are in.

    Local investors who need to focus on property buying within driving distance would be better off exploring nearly districts to the north, such as Lake Macquarie and Cessnock.

  2. Are you a real estate professional with an extensive knowledge of the Shire of Hornsby property market? Our members would love to hear from you! What is the market outlook for Hornsby LGA from your point of view? Share your insights in a comment below.

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