The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby
New South Wales
Good to Know
Hornsby NSW is a high-value house market in the Hornsby NSW area, currently positioned as a cashflow-challenged, income-driven submarket. Located to the north of the Sydney CBD, it is home to roughly 151,811 adults across 88,503 dwellings, with a vacancy rate of 1.45%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Hornsby NSW is exhibiting balanced supply-demand conditions. Stock on Market sits at 0.88% and Inventory at 2.87 months — both around the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving -1.7% YoY price growth and +4.9% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Hornsby NSW shows a soft short-term price path (1-year price change -1.7%) while rents are strengthening (+4.9%), a mix that often signals rental demand is supporting values despite modest capital weakness. Gross yield is low at 1.93%, which highlights a cashflow-constrained opportunity for buy-and-hold investors seeking income.
Supply-side indicators are neutral: the vacancy rate (1.45%), Stock on Market (0.88%) and Inventory (2.87 months) all sit in balanced bands, suggesting no acute oversupply or shortage. For a visual of where Hornsby NSW sits in the market cycle see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Hornsby NSW — and why it matters for investors
Hornsby NSW scores 1099 on IRSAD, indicating a relatively advantaged socio-economic profile; this typically reduces volatility and supports long-run demand for quality housing. The renter/owner split is neutral at 23.0%, and the units/houses mix is neutral at 38.0%, so tenure patterns are not extreme drivers of short-term price swings. For evidence on how socio-economic crossover affects capital growth, see our IRSAD Crossover study.
Why Hornsby NSW is a screening layer, not a final answer
Council-level figures are useful for initial screening but can hide important pockets of risk or opportunity. At the Hornsby NSW level we see a typical house price of $2,239,570, a gross yield of 1.93%, Stock on Market at 0.88%, Inventory at 2.87 months and a median days-on-market of 32 days — these suburb/LGA metrics should be the basis for any asset-level decision rather than relying on broader averages. Read more on why granular analysis matters in our LGA vs Suburb research.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 53
The HtAG RCS™ (overall 53) bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into a single composite to help match markets to strategy. Because Hornsby NSW shows low yields but solid rent growth, investors should inspect sub-score detail to see whether the market better suits capital-focused strategies or income-seeking plans; learn more about how the RCS™ is built. To analyse Hornsby NSW interactively, open Hornsby NSW in HtAG Copilot.
Forward signals to watch
vacancy rate — currently 1.45%: sustained vacancy in the balanced band tends to support steady rent growth but won’t create the strong upward pressure on rents that sub-1% vacancies deliver.
building approvals ratio — currently 0.42%: this neutral reading suggests new supply is not overwhelming existing stock, but a sustained rise above the neutral band would warn of future softening in rents and prices.
Sydney cycle phase: any shift in the broader Sydney cycle (for example, a transition to a recovery-led upswing) would likely support stronger capital momentum in Hornsby NSW; conversely a city-wide slowdown would add downside risk to local pricing.
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RCS Breakdown
The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Critical to know
Market Trends
The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby's headline values — $2,239K to buy and $830PW to rent, a 1.92% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 53.57% and rents 38.04% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$2,239K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$830PW today, with rent growth at (+4.92% YoY) compared to price growth (-1.71%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby in its cycle - and is the 1.92% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
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Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
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Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether The Council Of The Shire Of Hornsby has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
2020-2021 Property Market Outlook for The Shire of Hornsby, NSW
The market for houses in all LGAs around Sydney performed badly 2019 Q3. However, the Shire of Hornsby fared worse than most of its neighbouring LGAs, which all experience price falls.
The market for houses in the Shire of Hornsby showed YoY sales price falls of 6.86 percent during Q3 2019. Neighbouring Northern Beaches to the East saw prices fall 4.29 percent and the Hills Shire to the West saw house sales registering an average price fall of 5.49 percent. Moving north from the Shire of Hornsby, price falls lessen. Central Coast saw price falls of 3.64 percent in Q3 2019. Looking to the North of Central Coast, prices increased during the last quarter as the influence of the Sydney housing market lessens: Lake Macquarie, Cessnock City, and Newcastle City to the north increased by 0.24, 2.58, and 1.49 percent respectively.
House sales volumes in the Shire of Hornsby were comparable to its immediate neighbours. The LGA saw the sale of 157 houses in Q3 2019 compared to 117 sales in the Hills Shire and 123 sales in Northern Beaches. The market was more active in Central Coast, to the north with 356 sales.
The market for units in the Shire of Hornsby also experienced the largest price falls in region during Q3 2019. The average unit sales price fell by 6.42 percent. In comparison, prices fell by 3.29 percent in Northern Beaches and 5 percent in the Hills Shire. The market for units fared better in Central Coast, where prices fell by 0.56 percent. Closer to the centre of Sydney, Ku-ring-gai saw unit prices rise by 0.79 percent.
Unit sales volumes were low in the areas that showed better price performance, however: 23 sales in Ku-ring-gai and 24 in Central Coast, 35 in the Shire of Hornsby, and 10 units in the Hills Shire. Only Northern Beaches showed respectable unit sales levels with 109 units sold during the quarter.
The demand for houses in the LGA is a great deal higher than the average rate of sales for all local government areas in Australia, while the sales rate for units is slightly lower than the national average. Demand for houses for rent is a little lower in the area than the national average and the demand for units for rent is considerably lower.
Over the past year, prices for houses have fallen in the LGA by 6.45 percent, while prices for units fell by 6.07 percent. The movement in prices the rental sector was negative for both houses and units with falls of 3.79 and 4.78 percent respectively. Those falls in rent levels were not as steep as the sales prices. In the case of the house rental sector, average yields actually improved by 2.89 percent.
The demand profile above shows that four bedroom houses sold in far greater quantities than any other property type and size during 2018 – 2019. Three and five bedroom houses also sold in high volumes.
Interest in units settles on one and two bedroom properties – a size that shows far less demand in the house sale sector.
House prices in Hornsby Shire
House sales volumes have been volatile, surging and falling with no clear pattern. There is no specific season that can be said to see regular sales volumes rises or falls. However, the trend in house sales volumes has been in overall decline since 2014. The most active quarters in the history of house sales in the Shire of Hornsby saw volumes of 680 houses. In the last quarter, only 160 house sales completed.
House prices peaked in Q3 2017. HtAG analysis expects that sales volume will rise slightly quarter on quarter with steadily lower prices over the next year.
The rental market shows that the LGA seems to be switching over from a district of home owners to a place for renters. As sales volumes have dropped, house rental volumes have increased strongly to 590 new contracts in the last quarter. The last quarter had good news for those who buy to let because yields increased. However, HtAG foresees a dramatic fall in rent levels over the next two years, which will greatly outstrip the fall in house sale prices.
Price changes in the house market shows that the Shire of Hornsby has been a good place to buy from 2008 to 2017. The LGA’s average property price changes never dipped into negative territory since the beginning of the graph’s timeline but that situation changed dramatically in 2018.
Year-on-year price increases for houses stood at 8.83 percent at the beginning of 2017, but by January of the following year, that strong growth evaporated and yearly price changes switched down to a loss of 2.52 percent. That decline increased at the beginning of 2019 with a price fall of 6.45 percent.
The heatmap of house price changes for the Shire of Hornsby in 2019 Q3 shows no clear pattern. Districts that show heavy price falls neighbour areas that show the strongest price gains. There is no clear pattern to the price falls. So, it cannot be said that one side of the LGA is a better bet for property than another.
For example, the steepest price falls in the quarter occurred in the Mount Colah area where prices fell by 7.62 percent. Prices rose by 3.47 percent in the neighbouring Mount Luring-Gai area. The strongest price rises occurred in Galston with a rise of 7.76 percent. Although Galston does not border Mount Colah, the two areas are very close, separated by a very short distance with the district of Hornsby height, which showed price growth of 1.17 percent.
The irregular price performance pattern of these four areas is repeated across the Shire of Hornsby. However, the sales volumes during the quarter were low: 6 house sales in Mount Colah, 4 in Galston, 2 in Mount Kuring-Gai, and 7 in Hornsby Heights.
The scatter map above shows much more intense sales activity in the south of the LGA and almost no sales in the north. This reflects the varied nature of the Shire of Hornsby with the South forming part of Sydney’s suburbs and the North and West including sparsely populated rural areas.
Unit prices in Hornsby LGA
The market for units in the Shire of Hornsby LGA is not as active as the house markets with only 35 units sold in the last quarter. The rental sector is much more active, with 700 contracts being finalized in the LGA in 2019 Q3.
As with the house sales market, unit sales volumes have been erratic since 2008. The last quarter showed the lowest unit sales volume since Q1 2008. However, the previous quarter saw 91 units sold. Historically, apart from the occasional anomaly, unit sales volumes have been trending lower.
Average unit sales prices peaked in Q4 2017 at A$760,000. Prices have been falling since that date with the average unit sale price in the last quarter registering at A$680,000. HtAG expects that prices will continue to fall over the next two years, but unit sales volumes should improve steadily.
The rental market has expanded continually in the Shire of Hornsby since 2009, reinforcing the LGA’s profile as a rental neighbourhood. The average rent level has been flat at around A$500 since the beginning of 2017. Average rents have dipped slightly to A$490 over the past year and HtAG expects those levels to drop a little further to A$480 over the next two years. HtAG also believes that rental volumes will dip slightly from its peak of 700 rental contracts in the last quarter down to about 61 in Q4 2021.
The fall in rent levels in the unit sector will be a lot less dramatic than the fall in rent levels in the housing sector over the next two years. As unit sales prices are expected to fall at a faster rate than rent levels, the next two years should see rent yields rise in the unit sector.
The price change graph for units has a very similar trend to the graph for house price changes in the LGA. This has been a very good property sector for investors looking for capital growth all the way from 2008 up to the beginning of 2017. Events during 2017 took price changes into negative territory. Year-on-year prices for units rose by 7.91 percent at the beginning of 2017 but unit prices fell by 1.33 percent in the year to January 2018.
The falling price trend continued into 2019 and HtAG predicts that prices will continue to fall over the next two years, though at a gradually decreasing rate.
The heatmap of unit sales in the Shire of Hornsby shows great price change variations within the LGA. However, in most of these areas, unit sales volumes were in single figures. Castle Hill showed the worst price performance with an average sale price fall of 4.67 percent over 6 sales. The highest average unit sales price increase occurred in Wahroonga, but that area had only two sales.
Hornsby and Waitara had the highest unit sales volumes during the past quarter with 16 and 12 unit sales respectively. Prices fell slightly in both of those districts – by 1.55 percent in Hornsby and by 0.94 percent in Waitara.
The scatter plot of unit sales shows that most unit sales occurred in the south of the LGA with none in the larger rural zones in the North. The price bracket of A$700,000 to A$800,000 was more active than any other unit price range.
Conclusion
The property market in the Shire of Hornsby has turned sour since 2017. Whereas once, the LGA was a very good place to invest in property falling valuations and steeply declining rental yields over the next few years make the LGA a place to avoid while the market correction runs its course. The unpredictability of price performance within the LGA is another worrying factor that should discourage professional investors from buying property in the Shire of Hornsby. Those who have a strong local knowledge may be able to read the market a little better because price changes seem to be influenced by the state of individual properties rather than by the status of the areas that they are in.
Local investors who need to focus on property buying within driving distance would be better off exploring nearly districts to the north, such as Lake Macquarie and Cessnock.
Are you a real estate professional with an extensive knowledge of the Shire of Hornsby property market? Our members would love to hear from you! What is the market outlook for Hornsby LGA from your point of view? Share your insights in a comment below.