Moreton Bay Regional
Queensland
Good to Know
Moreton Bay QLD is a high-value house market in the Moreton Bay QLD area, currently positioned as a capital-growth submarket. Located north of Brisbane CBD, the LGA is home to roughly 476,340 adults across 226,148 dwellings and currently records a vacancy rate of 1.16%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Moreton Bay QLD is exhibiting a balanced supply environment with firm demand. Stock on Market sits at 1.26% and Inventory at 2.57 months — around the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +15.0% YoY price growth and +5.8% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Prices in Moreton Bay QLD have risen strongly over the last 12 months (+15.0%) while rents have increased more modestly (+5.8%), a classic sign of capital-led momentum where buyers are chasing growth rather than immediate cashflow. Gross yield sits at 2.7%, which is below the commonly recommended 3% threshold and indicates tightening cashflow margins for buy-and-hold landlords.
Supply-side readings are neutral: Stock on Market is 1.26% and Inventory is 2.57 months, so the current balance of listings versus buyers helps sustain price gains for now. For a quick visual of where Moreton Bay QLD sits in the cycle, see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Moreton Bay QLD — and why it matters for investors
Moreton Bay QLD records an IRSAD index of 981, above the minimum recommended value of 927, which indicates modest socio-economic advantage and typically lower downside volatility in long-cycle years. The renter/owner split is 32.0% (neutral) and the units/houses mix is 14.0% (neutral), pointing to a predominantly owner-occupied, house-focused market profile.
These demographic signals — plus an adult population of 476,340 and a large dwelling base of 226,148 — support durable demand. For research on how socio-economic position influences property cycles, see the IRSAD Crossover study.
Why Moreton Bay QLD is a screening layer, not a final answer
Council-level averages like those for Moreton Bay QLD blend many different suburbs and neighbourhood pockets. Decisions should rest on the suburb-level metrics within the LGA rather than the LGA average alone. Relevant summary figures for Moreton Bay QLD include a typical house price of $1,194,836, gross yield of 2.7%, Stock on Market at 1.26%, Inventory at 2.57 months and median days on market of 34 days — each of these tells a different part of the risk/reward picture.
For more on why council averages can mask important variation, read LGA vs Suburb research.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 58
The HtAG RCS™ (58 here) bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into one composite so you can quickly screen markets. Each dimension can point you toward a different strategy, so always inspect the sub-score breakdown when matching Moreton Bay QLD to your objectives. Learn more about how the RCS™ is built.
open Moreton Bay QLD in HtAG Copilot to drill into submarket score components and tailored filters.
Forward signals to watch
vacancy rate — currently 1.16%: a balanced vacancy reading that supports steady rent growth if demand remains, but it is not low enough to force rapid rental inflation over 12–24 months.
building approvals ratio — currently 1.93%: a neutral approvals pipeline that suggests new supply is present but not overwhelming; a sustained rise would weigh on capital gains, while a fall would tighten supply and support prices.
Brisbane cycle phase: any material shift in the wider Brisbane cycle (slowdown or renewed expansion) would likely filter into Moreton Bay QLD and alter local momentum — watch city-level indicators alongside the LGA metrics.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Moreton Bay Regional's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Market Trends
Moreton Bay Regional's headline values — $1,194K to buy and $620PW to rent, a 2.69% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 160.19% and rents 69.67% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$1,194K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$620PW today, with rent growth at (+5.79% YoY) compared to price growth (+15.05%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Moreton Bay Regional in its cycle - and is the 2.69% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Moreton Bay Regional's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Moreton Bay Regional carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
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Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Moreton Bay Regional's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Moreton Bay Regional can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Moreton Bay Regional genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Moreton Bay Regional prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Moreton Bay Regional - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Moreton Bay Regional looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Moreton Bay Regional's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Moreton Bay Regional has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Moreton Bay Regional shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Moreton Bay Regional has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
Property Market Trends in Moreton Bay, QLD
The local government area (LGA) of Moreton Bay occupies an enviable position between Brisbane City to the south and the Sunshine Coast to the north. The LGA includes the facilities of its major towns —Burpengary, Morayfield, and Caboolture – along with rolling countryside and accessible beaches. Areas like Moreton Bay, to the north of Brisbane offer a stable place for real estate investors with great property market outlook.
As can be seen in the map above, areas to the north of Brisbane are faring better in the current property market for houses than the LGAs to the south of Queensland’s capital.
Brisbane and its surrounding LGAs didn’t appreciate as dramatically during the boom years asSydney’s urban zone. The price correction occurring down in New South Wales isn’t as severe up in the north.
As a suburban and semi-rural zone, Moreton Bay is dominated by family homes. While house sales in the last quarter didn’t reach the levels of the densely packed Brisbane City LGA, to the south, sales volumes were higher in Moreton Bay than in all of the other LGAs that border the capitol district. The rental market for houses is particularly strong in Moreton Bay.
Comparing Moreton Bay to neighbouring council areas
In Q4 2019 Brisbane City saw a small price fall of 0.61 percent in YoY Capital Growth on a sales volume of 567 houses, compared to an average price increase of 3.05 percent recorded over 312 house sales in Moreton Bay. The closest comparison to Moreton Bay lies just to the north in the Sunshine Coast LGA,. It had a price increase of 3.63 percent on average from the sale of 287 houses. Glamorous Gold Coast City to the south of the Brisbane area is more influenced by the property markets in Sydney and Melbourne, being a vacation home destination for residents of the big cities of the south. Prices there fell slightly by 0.03 percent on the sale of 417 houses. The worst price performance in the immediate vicinity of Brisbane occurred in Logan City. There prices fell by 1.64 percent in the last quarter with sales of 188 houses.
Capital Growth for Houses in Moreton Bay (Q4 2019)
Unfortunately, the HtAG map doesn’t yet show results for unit sales in Brisbane City, where city centre locations are more likely to be provisions with a high proportion of apartments.
The volume of unit sales in the LGAs around Brisbane city are very low. Moreton Bay illustrates this situation well, experiencing only 27 unit sales in the last quarter, but registering and average price increase of 3.51 percent. Sunshine Coast had more unit sales volume in the last quarter: 85, where prices rose on average by 2.67 percent.
Capital Growth for Units in Moreton Bay (Q4 2019)
the Gold Coast LGA had a significant number of unit sales. Those iconic views of high-rise ocean-front blocks tell us that this district is a hotbed of activity in the market for units. There were 207 units sold in that LGA during the last quarter of 2019. However, the average price of sold units in Gold Coast City fell slightly, by 0.3 percent.
The demand for houses in the LGA is at the very top end of the scale for the entire country – both as rental and for sale. The rental and sale activity for units is also very high in the LGA when compared to the rest of the nation. High demand is always a good indicator for property investors and implies that the Moreton Bay council area will continue to be a good location for property investment.
Although rents have risen over the past year, the cost of buying property to let is also on an upward trend. This situation puts a squeeze on yields. Although capital values will continue in positive territory.
Most in-demand property types in Moreton Bay
The demand profile for property sales over the past year, above, shows houses greatlyu dominate the market in Moreton Bay. Suburban LGAS close to the major cities of Australia typically show more demand for three and four bedroomed houses. However, this trend is amplified in Moreton Bay. The very large proportion of four bedroom house sales is particularly notable. The sale of five bedroom houses is also much higher than in comparable suburban LGAs.
The big message from the demand profile is that the sale volumes for houses in the LGA outstrips the sale of units.
Families are more likely to occupy houses than units. Another maxim in the property industry is that families prefer to buy than rent. This has never been the case in Moreton Bay. In every quarter since the HtAG data begins in Q3 2009, completed rental contracts have always outstripped house sale contracts in volume.
Moreton Bay Property Market Outlook for Houses
From 2011, house sale volumes started to climb dramatically, rising up towards the volumes experienced in the rental sector. However, this was not a switch over from rental to ownership because over the same period, rental contracts continued to increase. The volume of completed rental contracts has never decreased in Moreton Bay quarter-to-quarter. The volume of house sales has decreased quite dramatically since the end of 2018.
The house sales market volume peaked in Q4 2016 with 1,800 sales. In the same quarter, completed rental contract volumes stood at 1,900. This is the closest the two statistics have ever been and they have diverged ever since with sales falling and rental volumes rising.
Average sales prices dipped from Q3 2010 through to a low in Q2 2013. Since then, house prices have increase quarter on quarter to the present day. HtAG expects this rising trend to continue over the next two years, but at a decrease rate of increase, and also expects sales volumes to get onto a rising trend.
Average rents in Moreton Bay have never fallen. HtAG expects that trend to continue with rent level increases rising at an increase that is roughly in line with rent rises in the past two years. HtAG expects the demand for rental houses to remain roughly at current levels.
HtAG’s bedroom-level forecasts are currently using a beta model source, so expect these forecasts to be revised once the model is fine-tuned by our data science team.
The price changes indicated in the forecast graph can be seen more clearly in the market cycle graph for house sales, shown above. That one dip into negative price change territory from 2010 to 2013 is the one notable feature of the graph. The red section of the line graph denotes prospective price changes. The line stays above the zero line, meaning that prices in the housing market in Moreton Bay will continue to rise but at a slower rate.
Capital Growth Rate for Moreton Bay Houses
The heatmap of house price changes for Moreton Bay strikes a note of caution. Investors want certainty and all information thus far points to Moreton Bay being a safe investment for house buyers. However, those red patches on the zoomed-in price performance map modifies enthusiasm. What are those red patches? Why are there dark green areas immediately next to dark red areas. Clearly dark green means extreme price rises and dark red means heavy losses.
Desirable waterfront zones, such as Scarborough, Woody Point, and Beachmere show large price rises for the quarter: and 6.78, 7.11 percent, and 9.25 percent respectively. However, when Burpengary East, right next Beachmere saw a fall of 2.77 percent, worry sets in. However, the sales volumes in these areas are negligible. On estate sale or a divorce-forced sale in the quarter can easily push down average prices, whereas, the sale of one property with spectacularly landscaped grounds can push up the average price for the quarter in a neighbouring area.
Overall, Moreton Bay has a respectable sales volume level and so the continued price rises are reassuring. Burpengary East saw only two sales in the last quarter and so is not indicative of the overall direction of prices.
The scatter map above shows much more intense sales activity in the south of the LGA and almost no sales in the north. If you’re a Sydney-sider, this LGA is very similar to the varied nature of the Shire of Hornsby with the South forming part of Sydney’s suburbs and the North and West including sparsely populated rural areas.
The scatter map of the house sales that occurred in the last quarter shows where all the market activity lies. A combination of local knowledge and statistics should help any house purchaser in Moreton Bay steer towards a safe investment.
Price Trends and Forecasts for Moreton Bay Units
Moreton Bay is not a major destination for investors who seek units. The Gold Coat, The Sunshine Coast, and Brisbane City are much more likely to attract unit buyers in larger volumes. In most markets, units are a better bet for buy-to-let investors. However, in Moreton Bay, renters are much more interested in houses than units.
There is more demand for rental units than units for sale in Moreton Bay and as a proportion, the turnover of rentals compared to sales is much larger in the unit market than in the market for sales. However, the demand for houses has always been higher in the rental market for houses than in the unit rental market.
One interesting factor that might make the unit market more interesting for buy-to-let investors is that the while average sales prices have risen steadily, rental prices are on a steeper incline. HtAG analysis sees this trend continuing with the percentage increase in rents increasing at a greater rate than the increase in sales prices.
Capital Growth Rate for Moreton Bay Units
The growth rate graph for units is very similar to the graph for houses in Moreton Bay. The unit sale value dip was actually a little shorter than the dip in house prices. Nevertheless, HtAG forecasts see continued unit sale price increases over the next two years, although at a slower pace.
The heatmap of unit sales in Moreton Bay is woefully short of sales data for districts within the LGA. But this just illustrates how small the market for units within the LGA is. There is no sales data for Caboolture, which makes up the largest population centre of the LGA. The two red areas in the map represent locations with unit sales price falls.
These are Deception Bay, where prices fell by 4.85 percent on a sales volume of three units and Clontarf, where the average unit sales price for units fell by 3.5 percent, but with only two sales in the quarter. As with the market for house sales, investors in units in Moreton Bay should ignore zone sales data and focus on individual property attributes when looking for capital growth.
The scatter plot of unit sales shows how low the turnover is in this market. This means that aggregated data across the LGA as a whole is more reliable than zone-by-zone statistics.
Conclusion
Property investors looking to avoid the price falls that many LGAs in Australia threaten should certainly invest in Moreton Bay with confidence. The demand for houses in this LGA is particularly strong. Although prices aren’t expected to grow at a rapid pace over the next two years, they will grow. Better yet, rent levels are expected to grow at a faster rate. This means that Moreton Bay is a good place to invest for buy-to-let investors who can expect steadily growing income plus capital growth.