Reservoir, VIC 3073

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3 thoughts on “Reservoir, VIC 3073”

  1. The total adult population (15 years or older) of Reservoir 3073 VIC is 43,146, with a median age of 38. Of those, 40.16% are married, 10.90% are divorced or separated, 42.40% are single and 6.53% are widowed.

    The average household size is 2.4 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $7,932. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,986 which is 25.04% of their earnings.

    Source: ABS Census Data (2021)

  2. Reservoir, VIC 3073

    Analysis performed on 17/08/2024

    1-4 timeframe performance:

    Supply side:

    Current values for all supply metrics are in the opportunistic range.

    SoM% long term trend is taking a substantial nosedive, and the recent trend (last 6 months) has seen a great reduction. The exact same can be said about inventory. This suggest that the direction of supply of existing stock to market will reflect a trend of reduction, which is a necessary foundation for future price growth.

    Building approval ratio has been increasing, including its overall trend which means that two years into the future we might see an influx of new stock which could slow down price growth if the demand is not strong enough to absorb it.

    Hold periods are currently sitting at close to 12 years which is leaps and bound above one property lifecycle. This suggests high liability factor of the area and separates the influx of existing dwelling from owner occupier selloff by 12 years. This means that those that are investing in the area for the future decade have a much more reduced concern about dampened price growth from increasing supply.

    Therefore, when looking at the supply side, the only minor concern is the influx of new dwelling to the market from the increasing building approvals.

    Demand side:

    Current value for days on market is sitting at 25 days, which paired with a reducing supply side of the equation—namely SoM% and Inventory—is reminiscent of a hot market. Judging by the last year growth sitting at close to 6%, we could say that the area is moving from a warm spot into a hot sport territory. More importantly, we are seeing a reduction in the long term DOM rend, as well as a persistently decreasing low short term trend with DOM values in the last 6 releases sitting below the overall trend mark.

    The current vacancy rate is sitting at a neutral 1.28%. This however matter less than the vacancy rate trend, both short term and long term which is reflecting a forceful movement to the downside. It therefore becomes much more understandable to see that rents have increased by 13% in the last year to a comparative 6% increase in typical values.

    Such arrangement between a dramatically decreasing Vacancy Rate trend, high increases in rental pricing and a reduction in both short term and long-term DOM trend indicate that ownership is becoming more and more desired in this suburb thus demonstrating that the trend in DOM will continue to decrease in the future and potentially rather forcefully.

    Such arrangement between supply and demand dynamics indicates that Reservoir, VIC 3073 is primed for above average growth in the next 1-4 years, with my hunch sitting at an average annual CG return of between 8-12% in the next 3-4 years.

    Judging by the algorithmic forecast on our platform, which is forecasting a cone of anywhere between -1 and + 14% ROI (ROI includes both capital growth and yield – yiled for this area is currently at 2.87%), I would say that my observation has a very high probability.

    4-10 years investment timeframe:

    Sitting at a price point of 972k, it is necessary for Reservoir to have a socioeconomic index of greater than 5. This is satisfied at it is currently sitting at 6/10.

    We also have the insurance policy satisfied because the suburb has high industry diversification and has no exposure to negative environmental effects. Currently its Low Risk RCS score is sitting at 89 out of a 100.

    The areas Growth Rate Cycle highlights that Reservoir has seen negative growth 3 times in the past since 2009, with a combined value of approximately -18%, if we only take into account peak negative values. This is not something that is preferred when assessing an areas long term performance potential and it might have something to do with the following point:

    The areas affordability index is currently sitting at 48.9 years to own, which for its price point, is above the preferred 45 years to own ceiling. Given that the areas industry is decentralised, we could infer that multiple dives into the negative growth zone are enabled by the forceful reduction of internal (i.e. owner occupier) demand caused by the increasingly tighter bottle neck of rising unaffordability for its residents.

    The positive in this negative story if you will is that negative growth has been reducing as time has went on: in 2012, the area has seen circa -9% growth; in 2018, circa 6% negative growth and in 2013 circa 3% negative growth.

    Now the crescendo!

    The influx of new stock from building approvals and potential disposal of investment property from the neutral renter to owner ratio which is currently sitting at 36% suggest that two and 6 years from now we could see some influx of supply which could restrict price growth. Why 2 and 6?

    Well two because it talks 2 years for a building approval to materialise into a dwelling and 6 because we are at the onset of a new cycle in interest rate reduction. Debt cycles move from 4-6 year timeframes meaning that 6 years into the future interest rates will again continue to rise which combined with rising unaffordability will see this area again plumet into the negative growth zone.

    Final verdict:

    This area provides great growth opportunities for 1-5 year timeframe and I suspect the area will see on average 7% growth all the way up to the 6 year mark. The issue with rising unaffordability and potential macroeconomic changes (interest rate increases) introduces a layer of uncertainty which tells me that after the 6-year mark, the area might experience some undesired volatility and turbulence which would reduce its 10 year long appeal.

    Strategy:

    Buy and hold for 6 years. If a 10 year timeframe is desired, take advantage of developing a 2 or 3 bedroom home into a 4 bedroom home to be able to comfortably ride out any weaves of uncertainty after the 6 year mark.

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