Berwick, VIC 3806
Casey City, Victoria
Good to Know
Berwick, VIC 3806 is a tightly-held house market in the City of Casey area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Located about 40 km south‑east of Melbourne CBD, Berwick is home to roughly 50,298 adults across 22,379 dwellings, with a vacancy rate of 1.69%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Berwick is exhibiting a supply-constrained, capital-led market. Stock on Market sits at 0.37% and Inventory at 2.57 months — just under the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +8.7% YoY price growth and +1.6% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Berwick shows clear capital-growth momentum: house prices are up 8.7% over 12 months while rents have only risen 1.6%, producing yield compression (gross yield 2.94%, below the recommended 3% threshold). Low Stock on Market at 0.37% indicates constrained resale supply, while Inventory of 2.57 months sits near the balanced mark — a combination that supports further price upside unless rental growth or supply shifts materially.
Watch the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap for live, comparative momentum across nearby suburbs and segments.
Who lives in Berwick — and why it matters for investors
Berwick's IRSAD sits at 1049, which signals relatively strong socio-economic advantage and typically lower volatility in downside cycles. The renter/owner mix at 22.0% is in the neutral band, meaning capital returns are more likely to be driven by owner-occupier demand than by investment-driven rental yield play. Read our IRSAD Crossover study to see how neighbourhood advantage interacts with long-cycle growth.
Why suburb-level data matters for Berwick
Council and LGA averages can hide pockets like Berwick where low stock and fast sales drive different outcomes. For Berwick itself the typical house price is $1,030,633, gross yield is 2.94%, Stock on Market is 0.37%, Inventory is 2.57 months and days on market average 32 days — these are the metrics you should base decisions on rather than a broad council headline. See our methodology in LGA vs Suburb research.
For a downloadable summary, get the full Berwick VIC 3806 data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 88
HtAG's RCS™ score of 88 bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into one composite to help screen markets by strategy. Examining the sub-scores (growth vs cashflow vs risk) is essential to match Berwick to your investment goals; the high overall score reflects strong growth signals offset by stretched affordability and compressed yields. Learn more about how the RCS™ is built.
open Berwick in HtAG Copilot to inspect the underlying sub-scores and scenario filters.
Forward signals to watch
The vacancy rate — currently 1.69%: sustained neutral vacancy in the 1–3.5% band typically supports stable rents but won't prevent further price-driven yield compression unless vacancy rises materially.
The building approvals ratio — currently 0.44%: approvals sitting in the neutral band suggest incremental supply rather than a large new-supply wave, so local stock pressure is likely to persist in the near term.
The Melbourne cycle phase: a city-wide shift into a slower phase would likely ease capital momentum in Berwick and shift emphasis back to rental growth and affordability; an upswing would amplify the suburb's existing price momentum.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Berwick's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Market Trends
Berwick's headline values — $1,030K to buy and $583PW to rent, a 2.94% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 67.82% and rents 56.72% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$1,030K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$583PW today, with rent growth at (+1.56% YoY) compared to price growth (+8.69%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Berwick in its cycle - and is the 2.94% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Berwick's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Berwick carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Berwick's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Berwick can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Berwick genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Berwick prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Berwick - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Berwick looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Berwick's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Berwick has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Berwick shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Berwick has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Berwick 3806 VIC is 39,859, with a median age of 38. Of those, 54.32% are married, 10.13% are divorced or separated, 31.01% are single and 4.54% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.9 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $9,384. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $2,000 which is 21.31% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)