Hoppers Crossing, VIC 3029
Wyndham City, Victoria
Good to Know
Hoppers Crossing, VIC 3029 is a tightly-held house market in the Wyndham City Council area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Located around 23 km west of Melbourne CBD, Hoppers Crossing is home to roughly 37,216 adult residents across 15,388 dwellings, with a vacancy rate of 2.1%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Hoppers Crossing is exhibiting constrained supply and strong price momentum. Stock on Market sits at 0.28% and Inventory at 1.18 months — well below the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +10.4% YoY price growth and +1.5% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling for Hoppers Crossing
Hoppers Crossing shows capital gains materially outpacing rental growth: price growth is +10.4% (1yr) versus rent growth of +1.5% (1yr), a pattern that typically signals yield compression and investor interest focused on capital upside. At the same time, Hoppers Crossing's supply metrics are tight — Stock on Market is 0.28% and Inventory is 1.18 months — supporting further price momentum unless new supply lifts.
Compare local momentum on the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap to see how Hoppers Crossing stacks up across short-term signals.
Who lives in Hoppers Crossing — and why it matters for investors
Hoppers Crossing records an IRSAD of 951, above the recommended threshold of 927, which points to moderate socio-economic resilience and demand stability. The renter/owner split sits at 26.0% (neutral), while the Units/Houses ratio is just 9.0% (opportune) — indicating this is predominantly a houses market, which affects vacancy sensitivity and redevelopment risk. For more on why socio-economic mix changes long-run growth outcomes, see the IRSAD Crossover study.
Why suburb-level data matters for Hoppers Crossing
Suburb-level metrics reveal the local supply/demand balance that drives returns. Hoppers Crossing's typical house price is $767,986 with a gross yield of 3.21%, Stock on Market at 0.28%, Inventory at 1.18 months and median days on market of 20 days. These are the precise signals investors should read when assessing purchase timing and holding strategy — council averages can mask pockets like Hoppers Crossing.
Read more on why council-level screens are an early step and suburb analysis must follow: LGA vs Suburb research. For a downloadable compilation, view the full Hoppers Crossing data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 84
HtAG's RCS™ (Rating Composite Score) of 84 bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into one composite to help match markets to strategy. Each sub-score matters: a high overall RCS can come from strong growth potential even where affordability is stretched.
See how the metric is constructed at how the RCS™ is built, then open Hoppers Crossing in HtAG Copilot to explore the sub-score breakdown and model scenarios.
Forward signals to watch
The vacancy rate — currently 2.1%: this neutral reading implies rental availability is balanced today; if vacancy drifts below 1% over 12–24 months expect upward pressure on rents and faster yield compression.
The building approvals ratio — currently 0.12%: this low/opportune approval rate points to limited incoming supply, which supports capital growth unless approvals accelerate materially.
The Melbourne cycle phase: city-wide shifts in the Melbourne cycle would feed through to Hoppers Crossing momentum — a city expansion phase typically lifts local demand, while a downturn can expose affordability-stretched suburbs to weaker price growth.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Hoppers Crossing's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
starter
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Critical to know
Market Trends
Hoppers Crossing's headline values — $767K to buy and $474PW to rent, a 3.2% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 70.28% and rents 51.44% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$767K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$474PW today, with rent growth at (+1.5% YoY) compared to price growth (+10.37%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Hoppers Crossing in its cycle - and is the 3.2% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Hoppers Crossing's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Hoppers Crossing carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Hoppers Crossing's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Hoppers Crossing can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Hoppers Crossing genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Hoppers Crossing prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Hoppers Crossing - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Hoppers Crossing looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Hoppers Crossing's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Hoppers Crossing has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Hoppers Crossing shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Hoppers Crossing has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Hoppers Crossing 3029 VIC is 30,147, with a median age of 37. Of those, 49.17% are married, 11.41% are divorced or separated, 35.29% are single and 4.13% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.8 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $7,172. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,600 which is 22.31% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)
Hoopers Crossing, VIC 3029 is in my view the epitome of the hidden gem.
Before we move onto looking at the market snapshot, lets first inquire into its past growth.
In the last three years, the growth of Hoopers Crossing, VIC 3029 has slowed down—it has growth only 16.7% in the last three years. This nis interesting considering that mots areas in Australia have grown substantially in the last three years, before the rise of interest rates, given the macroeconomic conditions of low borrowing cost.
Its 10-year growth is sitting at 97.69%, suggesting that the area has doubled in value in the last cycle. This is always a good sign and is indicative of solid market fundamentals.
The growth in rents has not seen the increase that occurred in capital growth. In the last decade, rents have increased by 32.73%. This suggest that Hoopers Crossing, VIC 3029 is more suited for a capital growth focused portfolio strategy.
Now lets looks at the market snap shot—yield only 2.51% at the moment, indicating, as mentioned, the areas main growth was seen in the capital growth domain.
This is also evident from the RCS scores. Let’s see what they are and what they mean.
WHY:
With a Relative Composite Score (RCS) of:
1. 95 / 100 for risk;
2. 41 / 100 for cashflow;
3. 95 / 100 for capital growth;
4. 77 / 100 score for overall.
The RCS scores for Hoopers Crossing, VIC 3029 in good order. Its overall score of 77 is in the top 5% of Australia. How do we know this? Well, there are 5,686 suburb entries in HtAG Analytics tables and Hoopers Crossing, VIC 3029 is in the top 207 entries for the overall score. You can find this out by filtering and introducing conditions ta the home page (make sure you toggle to suburbs, not councils).
The suburb has a score of 95 for risk, which also puts it in the top 5% (3% to be exact). This means there is virtually no risk of investing in Hoopers Crossing, VIC 3029.
What are some of the metrics that form part of HtAG Analytics risk scores:
• Flood risk;
• Bushfire risk;
• Costal and/or river erosion risk;
• IRSAD;
• Renter to owner ratio;
• GRC;
• Average age of properties;
• Average monthly sales volume;
• Average monthly rentals volume;
• Error rate;
• Plus, over 60 other metrics….
The suburb also has a capital growth of 95, which also puts it in the top 5% (3% to be exact).
Its cash flow score is 41, which is just a tad over the 50th percentile. This is not a surprise given such a high score for capital growth.
A rule of thumb is that exorbitant growth cannot be seen in both domains—either one substantially growth or the other.
Overall, its RCS scores confirm my previous observation that Hoopers Crossing, VIC 3029 is the epitome of the hidden gem. This is only is one’s strategy is capital growth focused.
Let’s look at other important metrics that buttress or form part of the RCS:
Fundamentals
ISRAD score: 3 — the ISRAD metric highlights the socio-economic standards of the area in question. For Hoopers Crossing, VIC 3029, the score of 8 represents balanced conditions. In the context of other data, this score is not a deal breaker. It just reinstates that we should not find any surprises with respect to the socio-economic conditions of the area which is inadvertently exemplified in the doubling of the areas typical price in the last decade.
Investment is about balancing a multitude of different metrics to predict the future so a single variable is usually not the Holy Grail.
Be patient, we need to look at other metrics.
R|O Ratio: 26% — this relatively balanced score and one that is favourable for price growth. In comparison to Wyndham City Council, which score is 38%, Hoopers Crossing represents a stand out and potentially a much more liveable place in comparison to its Council areas. This is something to take note off.
The flow on effect from this data point can go like this:
Balanced or favourable R|O ration = better liveability = higher hold periods = restricted supply = price growth.
Side note about hold periods: In simple terms, data indicates that people who own their homes are more likely to either sell them after a short period or keep them for a long time. On the other hand, investors are more likely to sell them after a few years.
U|H Ratio: 7% — In addition to above, this figure is also extremely favourable, suggesting that area supports larger family compositions which tends to add to the stability of the area.
The flow on effect is usually exemplified as such:
Higher proportion of units = higher proportion of renters which = surplus in the supply of properties due to more change over (lower hold periods) in rental in comparison to owner occupier properties = subdued price and rental growth.
GRC: its GRC is very favourable for many reasons, most of which relate to the evident cyclicality in the market. This is suggestible of healthy market fundamentals—the cyclical nature of growth and decline immediately indicates that the area is not supported by a single industry or unfavourable demographics.
A general rule of thumb is—is there are no cycles to the GRC and if there are also outlier sharp increases and decreases in the growth rate of an area, this is indicative of unbalanced market fundamentals with respect to industry and demographics.
The only negative I can find with the GRC is that it has crossed into the negative growth territory twice in the past, once around 2012 and the second time in 2019. I usually have a rule to take a close look into other metric for areas that have crossed the ‘zero threshold’.
Supply Metrics
Before I move on the statistics, I will say that all supply metrics for Hoopers Crossing, VIC 3029 are favourable, meaning that has been a restriction on the supply of new properties to the market.
SoM%: 0.20% (28 listings)
Inventory: 0.66 months
Hold Periods: 13.13 years
Not only are these statistics all very opportunistic, but their respective trend lines are moving all in accordance with putting more pressure on the restriction of the supply.
SoM% trend line is reducing = restricted supply = price growth all things being equal;
Inventory trend line reducing, rather dramatically = restricted supply = price growth all things being equal;
Hold periods increasing, rather dramatically = restricted supply = price growth all things being equal;
On top of all of this BA Ratio is at 0.09%, which is extremely opportunistic meaning there is no new property scheduled to be introduced into the area to balance the reduced supply.
Demand Metrics
Demand metric, in combination with the supply metrics, highlight a perfect storm. Let’s dive deeper.
DoM: 37 — this is a rather balanced figure meaning that the reducing supply will not be offset by reducing demand. This means prices are definitely poised for further growth. More importantly, the trend line of DoM has been reducing, meaning that demand has gradually been increasing for properties in Hoopers Crossing since 2020.
Vacancy Rate: 1.27% (224 vacancies)—This is a balanced figure meaning that again the reducing supply will not be offset by reducing demand. More importantly, same as DoM, the trend line for the vacancy rate has been reducing, rather dramatically, since 2020.
Judging by DoM and vacancy rate statistics, the demand has been increasing while, as seen in the supply metrics, supply has been increasing, hence my ‘perfect storm’ observation.
Overall, I am really happy with the data on Hoopers Crossing, VIC 3029. The area would definitely form part of my shortlist.
For a cheat sheet which highlights what are unfavourable, balanced and opportunistic statistics, refer to our Data Dictionary.
If you want something similar with better metrics, have a look at Brighton, QLD 4017 which I did an overview for recently.
Hi Matt,
Great breakdown, as this was 18 months ago, whats your thoughts on Hoppers Crossing today. All the RCS scores are very appealing and all in the upper end. THis is looking like a good medium to long term hold, with rents looking on the increase too.
I did notice building approvals in Tarneit the neighbouring suburb are very high with more then 2000 dwellings to be built in the coming year, plus another 2000 in close by suburbs, but 0% for Hoppers Crossing itself. Do you think this will have an impact on potential growth? Also affordability index is high at 40yrs, do you think this is a big concern for growth? Im finding majority of these suburbs with low economics all have high affordabilty index’s?
Very interested in your thoughts with this suburb/area? Particularly when i see alot of talk with current investors about the Northern suburbs, not as much with the Western.
Cheers
Nick
Hey Nick,
I have this morning pasted some insights regarding the effects of land releases on suburbs and their adjoining suburbs. History tells us that building approvals and land releases are usually there to keep pace with population growth. This council in particular has one of the highest population growth rates in Australia (take a look at this Government website: https://population.gov.au/data-and-forecasts/dashboards/fastest-growing-local-government-areas)
We also see minimum negative corrosion across suburbs–i.e. oversupply in one suburb does not equal negative growth in another and this can be seen from unequal growth rates in suburbs within the same council. Now, when it comes to comparison, the question is never about the suburb in isolation, but rather if there are better options with less risk under the same price point. This means that we come to a position where we can consider the rise of building approvals as a risk factor for the particular area in question, but we must do so in a proportional manner–we cannot assign extreme weighting to one metric while completely disregarding others. What this means is that if we come across two suburbs that are exactly the same in all metric but one has much larger building approvals than the other, than we should pick one with less building approvals. This however never occurs to perfection meaning that building approvals should always be considered in the context of demand also.
My concern is similar to yours for Hoppers Crossing–the rising unaffordability could produce a friction point so my next step would be to ascertain whether there are suburbs with similar typical value and better affordability, and in this instance, there are such as for example Taylor Hills.
Below are some observations I have recently posted in the Mastermind community on the land = oversupply issue:
Vacant land does not = oversupply
Below are the areas that 11 years ago have had the biggest land releases in Australia.
However, when filtered for high confidence data and look at 10-year growth:
1. Blacktown (NSW): 23 high confidence suburbs out of which lowest growth of 83% was seen in Riverstone and highest growth of 165% was seen in Colebee
2. Camden (NSW): 10 high confidence suburbs out of which lowest growth of 13.47% was seen in Catherine Fields and highest growth of 200% was seen in Gledswood Hills. Out of the 10 high confidence areas, 9 have seen above 84% growth in a decade with the exception of Catherine Fields.
Side note: Camden is a perfect example of lack of corrosion that happens across suburbs in the same LGA. Excess supply in one suburb DOES NOT MEAN negative growth in another.
3. Casey (VIC): 17 high confidence suburbs out of which lowest growth of 70% was seen in Lyndhurts and highest growth of 186% was seen in Clyde North. Out of the 17 high confidence areas, 15 have seen above 84% growth in a decade.
4. Ipswich (QLD): 26 high confidence suburbs out of which lowest growth of 101% was seen in Springfield and highest growth of 215% was seen in South Ripley.
6. Logan (QLD): 36 high confidence suburbs out of which lowest growth of 73% was seen in Greenbank and highest growth of 228% was seen in Yarrabilba.
7. Moreton Bay (QLD): 29 high confidence suburbs out of which lowest growth of 74% was seen in Newport and highest growth of 165% was seen in Toorbul.
8. Wyndham (VIC): 10 high confidence suburbs out of which lowest growth of 68% was seen in Laverton and highest growth of 167% was seen in Manor Lakes.
9. The Hills District (NSW): 10 high confidence suburbs out of which lowest growth of 78% was seen in Rouse Hill and highest growth of 180% was seen in Gables
10. Wanneroo (WA): 24 high confidence suburbs out of which lowest growth of 44% was seen in Madeley and highest growth of 136% was seen in Eglinton
What ‘rules’ can we extract from the data set?
1. Good performance in one suburb does not mean good performance in another in the same LGA.
2. Poor performance in one suburb does not mean poor performance in another in the same LGA
3. Land releases in one LGA do not mean oversupply and negative growth in every suburb across the board in the same LGA
4. Land releases are a government measure to keep pace with regions experiencing highest population growth
5. Land releases are more correlated to above average growth than negative growth.
Point Cook sat comfortably with an IRSAD score of 1066 out of 1217 hence the IRSAD arrow was pointing towards green colour.
Hoppers Crossing 3029 exhibited an encouraging socio-economic score (IRSAD) of 945 out of 1217, pointing towards strong financial resources, attractive income brackets and a professional population base within the region. But still the IRSAD arrow was at orange colour for the suburb? Shouldn’t it also point towards the green colour?
Keen to learn and understand the HtAG metrics hence leaving a query here.
Thanks
Hi Ritesh,
The displayed graph utilises IRSAD deciles, a rank score that ranges from 1 to 10, computed from the raw score by the ABS.
Since the distribution of raw IRSAD scores tends to be skewed, employing deciles offers a more accurate method for comparing various markets.
Put simply, opt for deciles when contrasting markets across Australia. Use raw scores in the comments when looking to glean a nuanced understanding of individual markets.