Ballarat City
Victoria
Good to Know
Ballarat VIC is a balanced-value house market in the Ballarat VIC area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital-growth submarket. It sits about ~110 km west of Melbourne CBD, home to roughly 113,763 adults across 64,244 dwellings, and has a vacancy rate of 1.21%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Ballarat VIC is exhibiting tight-supply dynamics. Stock on Market sits at 1.33% and Inventory at 1.69 months — well below the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +17.1% YoY price growth and +4.1% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Ballarat VIC's strong +17.1% annual price growth alongside more modest rent growth of +4.1% suggests capital appreciation is currently the dominant return driver. Gross yield at 3.17% sits just above the 3% guideline, while vacancy at 1.21% is in the balanced band — together these readings point to demand comfortably supporting prices but with constrained rental upside relative to capital gains. For a visual view of where Ballarat VIC sits in the national map, see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Ballarat VIC — and why it matters for investors
Ballarat VIC posts an IRSAD of 976, above the recommended minimum, indicating relatively stronger socioeconomic conditions that tend to lower downside volatility across cycles. The renter/owner split is neutral at 33.0%, while the units/houses ratio is 9.0% (opportune), signalling a housing-stock mix that supports traditional house investors. For how area-level socioeconomic crossover effects influence growth, see the IRSAD Crossover study.
Why Ballarat VIC is a screening layer, not a final answer
Council- or LGA-level averages can hide very different pockets inside their borders; using Ballarat VIC as a screening layer helps narrow options but should not replace suburb-level due diligence. Key Ballarat VIC metrics to anchor decisions: typical house price $705,656, gross yield 3.17%, Stock on Market 1.33%, Inventory 1.69 months, and median days on market 21 days. These figures describe a market with tight months of supply and quick turnover, but buyers should still validate the specific suburb micro-market before transacting. Read more on why LGA-level research is an early filter rather than a final answer in our LGA vs Suburb research.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 60
HtAG's RCS™ bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into a single composite so you can quickly compare markets. A score of 60 for Ballarat VIC reflects a balance between solid capital growth prospects and moderate cashflow metrics; reviewing the sub-score breakdown helps match the area to your strategy. Learn more about how the RCS™ is built. To explore Ballarat VIC further in our modelling tool, open Ballarat VIC in HtAG Copilot.
Forward signals to watch
The vacancy rate — currently 1.21%: a sustained fall below ~1% would tighten rental availability and push stronger rent growth over 12–24 months; a persistent rise above ~3.5% would signal weakening rental momentum.
The building approvals ratio — currently 1.4%: this sits in the neutral band, implying a moderate new-supply pipeline that is unlikely to swamp demand in the near term but should be watched if approvals accelerate.
The Melbourne cycle phase: changes in the Melbourne-wide cycle (particularly a city-level slowdown) would tend to influence Ballarat VIC's momentum via buyer sentiment and investor flow; a stronger Melbourne upswing would likely amplify Ballarat's capital-growth tailwinds.
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RCS Breakdown
Ballarat City's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
starter
Investor
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Critical to know
Market Trends
Ballarat City's headline values — $705K to buy and $430PW to rent, a 3.16% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 102.85% and rents 46.76% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$705K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$430PW today, with rent growth at (+4.12% YoY) compared to price growth (+17.09%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Ballarat City in its cycle - and is the 3.16% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Ballarat City's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Ballarat City carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Ballarat City's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Critical to know
Fundamentals
Ballarat City can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Ballarat City genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Ballarat City prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Ballarat City - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Ballarat City looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Ballarat City's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Ballarat City has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Ballarat City shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Ballarat City has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
How do Greater Melbourne property markets compare?
A number of suburban LGAs in the Greater Melbourne urban area experienced year on year (YoY) price falls of more than 7 percent (Mooney Valley City, Moreland City, and Darebin City) in the 1st quarter of 2020. At the same time, typical house price in Ballarat City property market rose by 5.49 percent. Whilst the neighbouring LGAs also showed similar trends:
In Hepburn Shire, immediately to the north west, prices rose by 5.86 percent YoY and the LGA’s neighbour to the south west, Moorabool Shire, had a rise in the typical house price of 5.6 percent YoY. Both of these neighbouring areas have much higher house prices than Ballarat City with the typical price in Hepburn Shire being A$629, 797 and the typical value in Moorabool Shire being A$585,574.
Ballarat LGA Heatmap for Units. The property market for units in Ballarat City is much smaller than the market for houses, with a lower typical price (A$213,195) and slower price growth (2.61 percent YoY). Within the commuter belt of Melbourne, that price growth rate isn’t as spectacular as some other areas equally distant from the centre of Melbourne, such as :
Mitchell Shire with 7.16 percent YoY and
Latrobe City with 6.72 percent YoY price growth
However, the LGA’s unit market is much safer than areas closer to the city, such as
Melton City, which had a 0.63 percent YoY price drop,
Glen Eira City, where unit prices fell by 3.03 percent YoY, and
Manningham City, which had a 4.23 percent YoY unit price fall.
Demand by Dwelling Type. Demand for both houses and units in the sales and rental sectors in Ballarat is very high compared to national averages. Strong house price growth has outstripped rental price growth, causing rental yields to fall over the last year. Ballarat Property Type Demand Profile. Three bedroom houses are the most in demand property type in Ballarat City. The HtAG Demand Profile for the LGA shows this very clearly. Unit sales numbers only exceed the sales volume for houses in the one bedroom category.
Housing Market in Ballarat Council Area. The typical house price in Ballarat property market has never fallen – as can be seen in the forecast chart below. Although many LGAs in Australia face challenges over the next two years, HtAG forecasts show that house prices will continue to rise in Ballarat City.
The typical house price is currently at an all-time high of $470,000 and that is expected to rise to A$530,000 by Q4 2021 – a 12.8 percent price rise over two years. House sales volumes peaked in Q4 2017 at 570. After falling steadily over the next four quarters, sales turnover dropped dramatically in Q1 2019 down to 230 sales in Q1 2019. House sales volumes have been rising steadily through 2019, reaching 360 sales in Q4. HtAG expects volumes of house sales to continue to rise, reaching 400 sales per quarter in Q4 2021.
Ballarat Rental Market for Houses. The rental sector is currently experiencing its greatest volume ever, with 600 contracts signed in Q4 2019. HtAG sees the rental sector’s turnover increase slightly to 610 rentals in Q2 2019 and then staying at that level through to Q4 2021.
Rent levels have risen steadily over the years except for a slight dip in Q4 2019. Rent prices had been at A$330 for 11 quarters up to that point, but fell to A$320 and stayed at that level until Q1 2017. After getting back to A$330 in that quarter, prices have risen steadily up to A$360 in Q1 2019. HtAG forecasts show that median rent levels should continue to rise to A$400 in Q4 2021. Although this is strong growth, at an increase of 11 percent, it is a little lower that the forecasted typical price increase over the same period. So, the rental yield for houses in Ballarat City should drop slightly over the next two years.
Growth Rate Cycle for Ballarat Houses. The market cycle graph above emphasises that typical house sale prices have never fallen in Ballarat City. The lowest point on the graph in 2014 represents an annual price increase of 1.74 percent. As can be seen, price increases have escalated dramatically since 2016. Prices have increased at the beginning of 2020.
Ballarat Property Growth Rate Cycles for Houses. May 2021 Update: LGA GRC charts now show YoY Typical Price change. However, the figure for this year only includes January 2020. So, this lower price increase for the year is not yet indicative for the year as a whole. The red line represents a forecast and it can be seen that the price increase for 2021 is expected to be at 6.68 percent. It is likely that once all of the figures for 2020 have been recorded, that dip seen at the end of the graph will disappear.
Suburb Capital Growth Heatmap for Ballarat Houses. The heat map shows price movements in each district within the LGA. The initial map for this report showed red areas that had price drops. In this map, the scale is different. No colour denotes price falls. A red area experienced a price increase of between zero and two percent.
The worst performance in Q1 2020 occurred in the Brown Hills housing property market, which saw price growth of 0.76 percent over six house sales. Mount Helen Houses saw the second smallest price rise at 1.988 percent – also over six sales. The biggest house price gains occurred in Newington Houses, where prices rose by 9.98 percent, but calculated over just two house sales. Following on from Newington Houses in the price gain chart were Sebastopol Houses and Black Hill Houses with 9.66 percent and 8.91 percent respectively. While Black Hill Houses had only two sales in Q1 2020, Sebastopol Houses had 19.
Ballarat Capital Growth Heatmap for Houses. The areas with the largest and smallest price gains in Ballarat City are not in specific geographical areas but are interspersed around the LGA. So, it isn’t possible to say whether one side of the LGA is more successful than another. Distance to the centre of town also doesn’t seem to have any influence on price performance. Therefore, the magnitude of price gains seems to more influenced by the features offered for individual properties rather than their location.
The scatter plot above shows all of the sales in the past year and their prices. The south west of the LGA contains almost all of the sales. This is to be expected because that cluster of sales is located where the city is positioned.
Ballarat Scatter Plot for House Sales. The rural areas outside of that cluster is less densely populated and so has few houses for sale in each year.
Unit Property Market in Ballarat City Council. The typical price for units in Ballarat City is under half of the typical price for houses. However, the median rent for units in the area is two thirds that for houses. That means buy to let investors would get higher returns on their investment by specialising in units.
There are far fewer units in the LGA than houses and the rental market for units is much bigger than the sales market. Sales volume peaked in Q2 2018 at a level of 51 sales. From that point, sales volumes declined every quarter to 15 sales in Q1 2019. Since then, sales have improved a little up to 28 sales in Q4 2020. HtAG forecast expect that sales volume of units will continue to recover up to 31 units in Q4 2021.
Since the beginning of 2008, the typical price of units has only ever fallen in one quarter – Q1 2014. That dip took the typical price down from A$180,000 to A$170,000, but the typical unit price was back up to A$180,000 in the next quarter. Since that time, the typical price has risen to A$210,000. HtAG expects that prices for units in Ballarat City will continue to rise, reaching A$220,000. That rise isn’t exactly spectacular, however, the property market in Australia is expected to go through a downturn over the next two years, so any gains represent a big win.
The drop in unit sales in Q3 2018 reflects a national trend. The constant rise in unit rentals is also typical of the property market across Australia. Unit rental volumes in Ballarat City hit an all-time high in Q4 2019. HtAG forecasters see this as a peak level. They expect that rental volumes will fall quarter-on-quarter down to an estimated 81 unit rentals in Q4 2021.
Price Trend for Unit Sales and Rentals. May 2021 Update: HtAG Analytics revised data curation method for LGA unit prices, which are now calculated as an average of all suburb typical prices in the area. Unit rental prices have risen steadily and slowly over the years up to a median of A$220 per month in Q4 2019. HtAG forecasts indicate that price will continue to rise from this point on, reaching A$240 per month at the beginning of 2021 and staying at that level up until the end of 2021.
The market cycles graph for unit sales in Ballarat City shows the percentage change in price levels since 2008. As you can see, the one and only dip in typical price in 2014 appears where the line drops below the zero line.
Ballarat Property Growth Rate Cycles. May 2021 Update: LGA GRC charts now show YoY Typical Price change. The red part of the line represents forecasted unit price changes and they show a slight increase, but not as pronounced as the big rise that occurred in 2019.
Suburb Capital Growth Heatmap for Units in Ballarat City. The area heat map for the LGA only includes those zones where unit sales occurred in the last quarter. There are only four. None of the zones experienced price falls and all sales were of properties in the urban area of the LGA. Four sales took place in Savastopol Houses and three sales were completed in Wendouree Units.
Ballarat Suburb Heatmap for Units. Two sales completed in each of Ballarat Central Units and Redan Units. The smallest price rise was seen in Redan Units at an increase of 0.9 percent. The highest typical price rise happened right next door in Ballarat Central Units. The scatter plot above shows that all unit sales in the past year occurred in Ballarat City proper. However, this is to be expected because units are rare in rural areas.
Ballarat City is in a lucky position. It has a buoyant local economy and is also within commuting distance of Melbourne. Both rental and sales prices in the area are accessible despite high levels of work opportunity, which would ordinarily force prices higher.
Prices will continue to rise despite the general property price downturn across the country, which has already started elsewhere. Ballarat property market is a safe place to invest in; the buy to let market for units in Ballarat City is particularly attractive.
Are you a real estate professional with an extensive knowledge of the Ballarat Council property market? What is the outlook of the market from your point of view? Our members would love to hear from you! Share your insights in a comment below.