Box Hill, NSW 2765
The Hills Shire Council, New South Wales
Good to Know
Box Hill, NSW 2765 is a high-value house market in the Box Hill area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Home to roughly 6,450 adults across 7,695 dwellings, the suburb is showing elevated rental slack with a 5.97% vacancy rate.
According to HtAG Analytics, Box Hill is exhibiting soft rental demand and elevated vacancy. Stock on Market sits at 0.75% and Inventory at 4.27 months — above the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +9.4% 1-year price growth and +4.4% 1-year rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Box Hill shows a classic price-led patch: strong +9.4% annual capital growth has outpaced rent growth of +4.4%, compressing gross yields to 2.5% (below the recommended 3% minimum). At the same time a high 5.97% vacancy rate and an elevated 5.2% building-approvals ratio suggest near-term rental weakness and rising supply risk.
Explore the spatial momentum on the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap to see how Box Hill's signals sit vs other suburbs.
Who lives in Box Hill — and why it matters for investors
Box Hill's IRSAD of 1127 sits above the recommended threshold, indicating relatively advantaged socio-economic conditions that typically smooth downside volatility and support long-term capital retention. The renter/owner split of 20.0% is in the neutral band, while a Units/Houses ratio of 1.0% is opportune for buyers seeking low competition from unit investors.
For more on how socio-economic position affects property performance see the IRSAD Crossover study.
Why suburb-level data matters for Box Hill
Suburb-level metrics like Box Hill's own typical price ($1,432,853), gross yield (2.5%), Stock on Market (0.75%), Inventory (4.27 months) and median days on market (57 days) are what determine local investment outcomes — council-wide averages can mask these pockets. Other risk signals to factor into your hold strategy are the stretched affordability of 49 years and a short reported hold period of 3.89 years.
Read our methodology on why local detail matters: LGA vs Suburb research. For a downloadable summary, get the full Box Hill data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 43
The HtAG RCS™ of 43 bundles three dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — so the headline score hides trade-offs (for example strong recent price growth but weak yield and high vacancy). Reviewing the sub-scores shows whether Box Hill better suits a growth, income or low-volatility mandate.
Learn more about how the RCS™ is built, then open Box Hill in HtAG Copilot to inspect the sub-scores and scenario outputs.
Forward signals to watch
The vacancy rate — currently 5.97%: sustained vacancy above ~3.5% over 12–24 months typically depresses rental growth and increases time-to-lease, raising holding costs for investors.
The building approvals ratio — currently 5.2%: a high approvals ratio signals strong pipeline supply that can amplify downward pressure on rents and limit near-term capital gains if delivery materialises.
The Sydney cycle phase: a city-wide shift from expansion to slowdown would likely reduce demand momentum in Box Hill and could moderate the suburb's recent price growth.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Box Hill's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Market Trends
Box Hill's headline values — $1,432K to buy and $688PW to rent, a 2.49% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 51.61% and rents 28.79% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$1,432K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$688PW today, with rent growth at (+4.39% YoY) compared to price growth (+9.42%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Box Hill in its cycle - and is the 2.49% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Box Hill's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Box Hill carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Box Hill's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Box Hill can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Box Hill genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Box Hill prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Box Hill - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Box Hill looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Box Hill's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Box Hill has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Box Hill shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Box Hill has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Box Hill 2765 NSW is 4,599, with a median age of 31. Of those, 64.93% are married, 7.05% are divorced or separated, 26.40% are single and 1.59% are widowed.
The average household size is 3.3 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $11,584. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $3,000 which is 25.90% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)