Kirwan, QLD 4817
Townsville City, Queensland
Good to Know
Kirwan, QLD 4817 is a tightly-held house market in the Townsville City Council area, currently positioned as a supply-constrained capital-growth submarket. Located within the Townsville region, Kirwan is home to roughly 20,780 adults across 8,820 dwellings and currently records a vacancy rate of 1.57%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Kirwan is exhibiting constrained supply against steady rental demand. Stock on Market sits at 0.3% and Inventory at 1.62 months — well inside the ~3-month balanced-market threshold and indicative of low available stock — driving +15.1% YoY price growth and +6.2% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Kirwan's combination of strong one-year price growth (+15.1%) and solid rent gains (+6.2%) alongside low Stock on Market (0.3%) and tight Inventory (1.62 months) signals a market where buyers are competing for limited listings and landlords can push rents. For a visual of where Kirwan sits today, see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Kirwan — and why it matters for investors
Kirwan posts an IRSAD of 958, above the recommended minimum of 927, which suggests moderate socio‑economic resilience that can dampen downside in downturns. The renter/owner split is 35.0% renters (neutral), while the units/houses ratio is 7.0% (opportune for house-focused investors). Read more about how neighbourhood socio‑economic crossover affects property returns in our IRSAD Crossover study.
Why suburb-level data matters for Kirwan
Suburb-level metrics give a clearer investment signal than broad council averages. Kirwan shows a Typical price of $768,900, a gross yield of 3.82%, Stock on Market at 0.3%, Inventory at 1.62 months and median days on market of 29 days — a combination that highlights tight listing supply and market momentum specific to Kirwan. Learn why council averages can hide these pockets in our LGA vs Suburb research. For the complete dataset, download the full Kirwan data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 90
HtAG's RCS™ consolidates three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital‑growth potential and cashflow resilience — into a single composite to help match markets to strategy. Kirwan's 90 overall score reflects strong recent capital growth and tight supply; however, reading the sub‑scores is essential to align with your hold period and risk tolerance. See how the RCS™ is constructed in how the RCS™ is built. To drill into the sub‑scores and scenario planning, open Kirwan in HtAG Copilot.
Forward signals to watch
The vacancy rate — currently 1.57%: sustained sub‑2% vacancy across 12–24 months would support further rent growth and tighter landlord leverage; a rising vacancy would signal softening rental demand.
The building approvals ratio — currently 0.06%: this very low approvals ratio points to minimal new supply pipeline, which preserves scarcity and underpins medium‑term price resilience.
The wider Townsville cycle phase: a city‑level upturn would likely amplify Kirwan's momentum, while a cyclical slowdown in the Townsville cycle would test near‑term growth despite tight local supply.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Kirwan's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Market Trends
Kirwan's headline values — $768K to buy and $563PW to rent, a 3.8% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 117.73% and rents 65.69% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$768K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$563PW today, with rent growth at (+6.2% YoY) compared to price growth (+15.06%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Kirwan in its cycle - and is the 3.8% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Kirwan's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Kirwan carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Kirwan's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Kirwan can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Kirwan genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Kirwan prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Kirwan - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Kirwan looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Kirwan's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Kirwan has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Kirwan shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Kirwan has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Kirwan 4817 QLD is 16,598, with a median age of 38. Of those, 43.25% are married, 13.94% are divorced or separated, 38.22% are single and 4.57% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.6 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $7,800. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,450 which is 18.59% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)