Mildura Rural City
Victoria
Good to Know
Mildura is an affordable house market in the Mildura area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Home to roughly 56,972 adults across 32,019 dwellings, the market is trading with a vacancy rate of 1.86%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Mildura is exhibiting firm demand against constrained supply. Stock on Market sits at 0.71% and Inventory at 1.5 months — well below the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +14.3% YoY price growth and +1.5% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Mildura's combination of strong +14.3% annual price growth and muted rental uplift (+1.5%) points to a capital-growth-led cycle rather than a cashflow-driven surge. Supply-side metrics reinforce that signal: Inventory is just 1.5 months and Stock on Market is 0.71%, while days on market are fast at 33 days. For a visual of where this sits in the national picture, see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Mildura — and why it matters for investors
Mildura records an IRSAD of 931, slightly above HtAG's recommended benchmark, which suggests mix of socio-economic resilience and upside potential — read the broader implications in the IRSAD Crossover study. The renter/owner split is neutral at 30.0%, while the market is house-dominant with a units/houses ratio of 9.0% (an opportune structural mix for house buyers).
Why Mildura is a screening layer, not a final answer
Council- or LGA-level summaries can conceal very different suburb pockets — decisions should rest on the market's own metrics. Mildura's typical house price is $567,243, gross yield is 4.44%, Stock on Market is 0.71%, Inventory is 1.5 months and median days on market are 33 days. These local figures help define the likely holding period (8.08 years) and expected volatility. For methodology on why granular screening matters, see LGA vs Suburb research.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 50
HtAG's RCS™ (50) bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into a single composite. Reading the underlying sub-scores is important to match Mildura to a strategy (for example, strong capital growth but modest near-term rent momentum). Learn more about how the RCS™ is built. To explore the full dataset and scenario tools, open Mildura in HtAG Copilot.
Forward signals to watch
vacancy rate — currently 1.86%: a sustained sub-2% vacancy over 12–24 months typically supports rental tightening and protects cashflow downside.
building approvals ratio — currently 1.15%: a neutral approvals reading suggests developer activity is steady but unlikely to rapidly relieve supply pressure in the near term.
Melbourne cycle phase: a city-wide shift towards either tightening or easing momentum in Melbourne would typically amplify or dampen regional capital flows into Mildura, so watch metropolitan cycle moves for spillover effects on local demand.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Mildura Rural City's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Market Trends
Mildura Rural City's headline values — $567K to buy and $485PW to rent, a 4.44% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 127.26% and rents 81.27% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$567K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$485PW today, with rent growth at (+1.47% YoY) compared to price growth (+14.26%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Mildura Rural City in its cycle - and is the 4.44% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Mildura Rural City's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Mildura Rural City carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Mildura Rural City's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Mildura Rural City can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Mildura Rural City genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Mildura Rural City prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Mildura Rural City - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Mildura Rural City looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Mildura Rural City's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Mildura Rural City has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Mildura Rural City shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Mildura Rural City has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
Compared to the national average, there is greater buyer demand for houses in Mildura Rural City compared to units. Across Mildura Rural City, the greatest demand is for three and four bedroom houses, with two and three bedroom units and three bedroom semi-detached houses making up only a small portion of the demand profile in the area.
Three bedroom homes makeup the largest demand sector of the market in Mildura Rural City. As of Q2 2020 the rental gross yield for houses and units is 4.92% and 6.6% respectively.
How do Mildura Rural City houses & units compare to neighbouring LGAs? According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Mildura Rural City is A$305,316 with a -$162,000 to +$81,000 variance compared to the neighbouring LGAs. Wentworth Shire Council has a higher median house price, while Hindmarsh Shire and Yarriambiack Shire are sharply lower than Mildura Rural City.
Wentworth Shire Council: A$386,635
Renmark Paringa Council: A$382,296
Swan Hill Rural City: A$316,015
Mildura Rural City: A$305,316
The DC of Loxton Waikerie: A$254,449
Hindmarsh Shire: A$143,496
Yarriambiack Shire: A$109,712
House prices in Mildura Rural City have started 2020 strongly, increasing 4.09% as shown on the heat map. In comparison 2 of the remaining 6 neighbouring LGAs exhibited positive growth above 4%, with Wentworth Shire Council being the strongest performer in the area with 5.32%.
Wentworth Shire Council: 5.32%
Yarriambiack Shire: 4.85%
Mildura Rural City: 4.09%
The DC of Loxton Waikerie: 2.01%
Renmark Paringa Council: 1.67%
Swan Hill Rural City: 0.54%
Hindmarsh Shire: -0.99%
The unit market in Mildura Rural City is limited compared to the house market, with units priced at a median value of A$184,715.
Swan Hill Rural City: A$226,386
Mildura Rural City: A$184,715
Unit prices in Mildura Rural City have seen very strong growth in 2020 with a 6.47% increase.
Mildura Rural City is 6.47%
Swan Hill Rural City: 1.90%
Property Market Forecast for Mildura Rural City Houses. HtAG property market data for Mildura Rural City shows that sales volume for houses had been steadily decreasing since Q3 2016 where they peaked.
Sales volumes have been averaging 150 transactions each quarter since their bottom in Q2 2019. Rental volumes have been mostly flat since Q1 2015. Median house prices have been consistently increasing since 2008 reaching A$310,000 as of Q2 2020. HtAG forecasts show that median values are expected to move slightly higher to A$320,000 into Q2 2022.
The median value of 2, 3 and 4 bed houses had been rising steadily since 2008. Median values currently sit at A$210,000, A$280,000 and A$420,000 respectively. Median rents have increased steadily since 2008 but had small dips in 2011 and 2014 and currently sit at A$290. The median rental price of 2, 3 and 4 bed houses is A$240, A$300 and $310 respectively.
HtAG forecasts that the median rental value is expected to remain steady at A$300 into Q2 2022.The market cycle graph for Mildura Rural City highlights a considerable change in median price over the last 12 years since 2008. Growth is currently at 4.09% and is declining. In 2015, growth had been as high as 8.72%, with the prior peak in 2010 at 2.4%. There were two previous dips that saw growth fall to 1.54% in 2012 and 3.8% in 2013 and 2018.
According to HtAG forecasts, growth rates will continue lower into 2021 and 2022 reaching 2.05% in 2022. Currently house prices are at approximately 5 o’clock on the property clock as the growth cycle slows (declining).
Suburb Capital Growth and Price Variance Heatmaps for Houses in Mildura Rural City. The heatmap above represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis. The green areas show a percentage increase ranging from 9%-11% with the highest growth in the suburb of Red Cliffs (10.82%), Irymple (9.04%) and Merebein (5.67%). Mildura houses grew in value in 2020 by 5.76% to A$315,953
The scatter plot above shows all the individual sales over the past year and their concentration in the LGA. Mildura and Irymple are the higher end suburbs where most of the sales in the A$500,000-A$600,000 range occurred. Sales in the range of A$100,000-A$300,000 have been Red Cliffs. Sales volumes have been consistent across Mildura and Irymple.
The median price for units in Mildura Rural City is significantly lower than the median price for houses. Units had a median price of A$180,000 in the second quarter of 2020. Overall, the trend in median prices has been continually increasing since 2008.
The trend is very different with rental prices for units where they have seen two price peaks in 2016 and 2018. The maximum median rent was A$230 where it sits currently, while the lowest level was A$120 per week in Q4 2010.
Sales volumes have been relatively consistent with 10 transactions on average. According to market forecasts by HtAG, the median price of units will increase headed into Q2 2022, to A$200,000 from the current value of A$180,000. By Q2 2022, it is forecast that the median rent will increase to A$250 per week from the current value of A$230.
Property Cycle Position of Mildura Rural City Units. Market cycle graph for Mildura Rural City units above shows that prices increased significantly in 2013 (5.3%) and 2018 (7.26%) as well as seeing further growth into 2020, where the growth rate looks to have peaked at 6.47%. The growth rate fell to 1.77% in 2015.
According to HtAG forecasts, that growth in unit values will continue to slow to 4.48% into 2021. According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for units in this LGA are starting to slow down after a strong run of increasing capital growth and would be approximately 12 o’clock on the property clock (peak).
The heatmap above represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis for units in Mildura Rural City in 2020. Mildura units grew in value in 2020 by 7.57% to A$190,607
However, we must note there have only been 4 sales in the unit market. Looking at the scatter plot, there are far fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. Sales are evenly distributed around Mildura, with prices in the A$120,000 to A$180,000 range.
Mildura Rural City appears to be coming into a period of strong returns, with a number of suburbs within the LGA set for solid growth headed into 2022. That said the LGA is assessed at being at its peak for houses.
Over the next two years, HtAG forecasts Mildura houses to grow by +7.32% (to A$339,093) by Q2 2022 which is assessed as high confidence due to the strong sales volumes (15) in the quarter. Mildura is assessed as being at the peak of the market.
Merbein is also predicted to grow strongly by +14.92% (to A$270,531) by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having medium confidence based on 12 sales. Merbein is assessed as a rising market.
Red Cliffs is predicted to grow strongly by +7.76% (to A$327,007) by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having medium confidence based on 16 sales. Red Cliffs is assessed as being at the peak of the market.
Irymple is predicted to see strong growth of +6.82% (to A$447,908) by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having medium confidence based on 4 sales. Irymple is assessed as being at the peak of the market.
The suburbs that are expected to show the strongest rental yields by Q1 2022 are Ouyen (7.42%), Merbein (5.77%), and Mildura (5.43%).
For the unit market, the suburb of Mildura is predicted to grow at +5.93% (to A$201,905) by Q2 2022, with medium confidence based on 4 sales data. Yields for Mildura units are forecasted to be 7.24% in Q2 2022.