Australian Property Hotspots May 2024 vs Reality May 2026: A Data Filter Beat Every Major Forecaster

Quick Summary

In May 2024, every major Australian property forecaster — CoreLogic, Hotspotting, Money Magazine, Soho, Canstar — was telling investors to buy Perth, Brisbane city, and Adelaide. A simple data filter on htag.com.au returned ten different suburbs: three Townsville house markets, three Cairns house markets, two regional NSW, one regional SA, one regional VIC. Twenty-four months later, the data filter delivered an average +25.7% capital growth across the ten suburbs — with seven of ten exceeding 20% growth and four of ten exceeding 30%. This article publishes the original screenshot, the filter inputs, and the per-suburb price outcomes.

A subscriber found the May 2024 screenshot on their phone, posted the retrospective, and asked us to publish the receipts. We did.

The May 2024 Screenshot

I found a screenshot on my phone from 8 May 2024 — a property research filter I was running on htag.com.au back when the platform had about 10 inputs total. No AI, no hex maps, no copilot. Just deciles, RCS scores, IRSAD, affordability index, days on market, and a few supply metrics.

The filter returned 16 Australian suburbs. The first 10 visible on screen were:

Brinsmead QLD 4870, Kirwan QLD 4817, Mount Louisa QLD 4814, Warrnambool VIC 3280, Gordonvale QLD 4865, Griffith NSW 2680, Idalia QLD 4811, Bayview Heights QLD 4868, Goulburn NSW 2580, Clare SA 5453.

What’s striking two years later is that none of these matched the mainstream Australian property forecasts being published in May 2024.

What the Australian Property Media Was Forecasting in May 2024

The May 2024 consensus across Australian property media was unambiguous, well-promoted, and — in hindsight — mostly wrong on direction.

• CoreLogic’s “Best of the Best 2024” had Perth taking all 10 top spots for capital city house growth — Armadale, Mount Hawthorn, Gosnells, all delivering 30%+ year-on-year at the time.
• Hotspotting and Terry Ryder were calling Joondalup (Perth) and Douglas (Townsville unit market) as joint top hotspots.
• Money Magazine, Soho, Canstar were pushing Brisbane inner-ring (Carseldine, Chelmer, Wynnum West, Woolloongabba) and Adelaide (Elizabeth North, Flinders Park, Salisbury East).
• Smart Property Investment flagged Heathmont in outer-east Melbourne.
• Propertyology (credit where due) had tagged Townsville for 50% growth to 2026 — they were the only major firm doing so.
• Sydney commentary was pushing $3M-$4M plays in Coogee, Neutral Bay, Curl Curl.

The consensus in May 2024 was clear: Perth, Brisbane city, and Adelaide. Regional Queensland houses (other than Townsville units) and regional NSW were largely written off. The narrative was momentum-driven — the cities that had grown fastest in 2023 were assumed to keep growing fastest in 2024-2025.

For a deeper read on why momentum-only forecasts mislead, see HtAG’s explainer on why median price is not a reliable metric for property investors.

What the HtAG Data Filter Returned Instead

Three Townsville house markets (Mount Louisa, Kirwan, Idalia), three Cairns house markets (Brinsmead, Gordonvale, Bayview Heights), two regional NSW (Griffith, Goulburn), one regional SA (Clare), and one regional VIC (Warrnambool).

Zero Perth. Zero Sydney. Zero Melbourne. Zero Brisbane city.

The filter was specifically excluding suburbs with an Affordability Index above 35 (years to own a typical house at the median income). Perth had already blown past that threshold by mid-2024 — which is why none of the Perth suburbs CoreLogic was celebrating made the cut. The math said the buyer pool was tapped out, even though the rear-view-mirror data still looked great.

The filter also required Lower Risk RCS > 50, Capital Growth RCS ≥ 45, IRSAD > 2, Stock-on-Market % below 2, Inventory below 1.5 months, BA Ratio below 1, and Hold Period of at least 8 years. That combination of constraints biased the output toward affordable markets with measurable supply scarcity and historically resilient buyer behaviour.

The 24-Month Outcome — May 2024 to April 2026

Typical house price data from the HtAG Analytics data warehouse, period-end May 2024 to period-end April 2026:

Portfolio averages across all 10 suburbs:

• Mean 24-month growth: +25.7%
• Median: +24.6%
• CAGR: ~12.1% per annum
• Suburbs above 20% growth: 7 of 10
• Suburbs above 30% growth: 4 of 10
• Best performer: Mount Louisa QLD 4814 at +46.5%
• Only underperformer: Warrnambool VIC 3280 at +5.1%

For investors who want to see the methodology behind these signals applied to current markets, HtAG’s Suburb Growth Forecasts 2026 and Top 10 High-Yield Suburbs Q1 2026 lists run on the same data layer.

How This Compares to the May 2024 Consensus Picks

The Perth suburbs that dominated CoreLogic’s late-2023 / early-2024 top-10 lists have largely flatlined or gone backwards across 2025-2026 as affordability compressed and stock came back on. The Sydney $3M-$4M plays haven’t materially moved. Melbourne calls (Heathmont and similar) have underperformed broader VIC trends.

Two of the four major narratives from May 2024 — Brisbane inner-ring and Adelaide — held up partially, but neither delivered the asymmetric returns the Townsville and Cairns house markets did. Looking back across 24 months, the data filter sat several percentage points ahead of every mainstream forecast on portfolio-level outcomes — and was the only public methodology that surfaced Cairns houses as a coherent group.

Methodology

• Filter platform: htag.com.au (Australian property analytics platform)
• Filter run date: 8 May 2024
• Filters applied: Price > $450,000; Confidence = High; IRSAD > 2; Affordability Index < 35; Lower Risk RCS > 50; Capital Growth RCS ≥ 45; SoM% < 2; Inventory < 1.5; BA Ratio < 1; Hold Period ≥ 8
• Property type: Houses, all bedrooms
• Price data source: HtAG Analytics data warehouse, typical price (median of 6-month rolling sales window)
• Outcome measurement window: May 2024 to April 2026 (24 months)

For full methodology context — including how RCS, IRSAD, and supply-demand metrics interact — see HtAG’s Growth Rate Cycle explainer and the case studies tracked in real time on the HtAG Evidence Portal.

Key Takeaways

• Forward signal ≠ backward signal. By the time a suburb appears on CoreLogic’s “Best of the Best” list, it’s already late in its cycle. The data filter excluded suburbs where Years-to-Own had blown past the sweet spot — which is why Perth, despite being everyone’s favourite, didn’t make the cut.
• Crowded trades underperform. Every property influencer and major outlet was pushing Perth in mid-2024. That consensus is the signal that the trade is mature.
• Boring suburbs outperform. Mount Louisa, Bayview Heights, Clare, Griffith — none of these have a “story.” No social media buzz, no influencer hype, no narrative. Which is exactly why they were mispriced.
• Affordability is the leading indicator nobody talks about. The Affordability Index < 35 filter (years to own at median income) was the single biggest driver of why this filter avoided Perth and surfaced Townsville, Cairns, and regional markets. Affordability headroom predicts future buyer demand. Crowded affordability ceilings predict deceleration.
• A simple ten-input filter beat the entire mainstream forecasting industry. No AI, no machine learning, no copilot — just disciplined application of supply, demand, affordability, and risk metrics. The methodological edge was structure, not sophistication.

From Data Signal to Portfolio Decision

The filter that produced this 10-suburb shortlist used the same data layer that powers HtAG Analytics’ GeoDex heatmap, Market in Motion, and the live suburb-scoring engine across 15,000+ Australian markets. Every input — IRSAD, Affordability Index, RCS scores, Stock-on-Market, BA Ratio, Hold Period — is updated quarterly and available in the platform today.

If you want to run an equivalent filter against current Australian property data, start with the HtAG Starter Plan. It’s the most direct way to move from reading retrospectives to running your own.

For investors working with a buyers agent, HtAG’s advisory services extend the data layer into a direct research engagement. For the macro view that sits behind these suburb-level signals, see the Australian Property Forecast 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

What were the top performing Australian suburbs between May 2024 and April 2026?

Based on HtAG Analytics data warehouse typical-price data, Mount Louisa QLD 4814 (+46.5%), Kirwan QLD 4817 (+40.7%), and Idalia QLD 4811 (+36.3%) were the top three suburbs from this 10-suburb shortlist over the 24 months from May 2024 to April 2026. All three are Townsville house markets that did not appear on any mainstream forecaster’s May 2024 top-suburb list.

Did Townsville outperform Perth between 2024 and 2026?

Yes, materially. Townsville house markets including Mount Louisa, Kirwan, and Idalia delivered 36–46% growth between May 2024 and April 2026, while most Perth suburbs from CoreLogic’s 2024 top-10 list have flatlined or declined since late 2024 as affordability compressed and stock returned to market.

Why did mainstream property forecasters miss Townsville and Cairns houses in 2024?

Most mainstream Australian property forecasters in May 2024 were focused on capital city momentum (Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide) and used backward-looking growth as their primary signal. Data-driven filters that incorporated affordability headroom, days on market, and inventory ratios independently surfaced Townsville and Cairns house markets that lacked media narrative but had strong forward-looking fundamentals.

What is the IRSAD score in Australian property research?

IRSAD is the Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. In property research, IRSAD deciles 4–7 are widely considered the “sweet spot” for capital growth — high enough to indicate genuine economic activity, low enough to retain affordability headroom and forward buyer migration capacity.

What is the Affordability Index in HtAG methodology?

The Affordability Index represents Years-to-Own — the number of years it would take to fully pay for the typical house at the median household income. Values below 35 indicate genuine affordability headroom and forward-looking demand capacity; values above 35 are associated with affordability fatigue and decelerating buyer pools.

How accurate were Australian property forecasts for 2024?

Mainstream Australian property forecasts in May 2024 were heavily concentrated on Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide — markets that had already experienced significant growth. Data-driven filters that emphasised affordability headroom and forward-looking supply/demand metrics outperformed mainstream forecasts by surfacing Townsville and Cairns house markets that subsequently delivered 24–46% growth over the following 24 months. For broader context on suburb vs LGA-level dispersion, see HtAG’s LGA vs Suburb Analysis.

Source: HtAG Analytics data warehouse, retrieved 9 May 2026. Filter screenshot dated 8 May 2024. Growth percentages calculated from typical-price (rolling median) data, period-end May 2024 to April 2026.

Original Reddit thread: r/auspropertyinvesting — Australian Property Hotspots May 2024 vs Reality May 2026. Posted 9 May 2026 by an htag.com.au subscriber.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Property investment involves substantial financial risk. Always conduct independent due diligence and consult appropriately licensed advisers before making any property investment decision.