The need for HtAG Analytics arose in response to the complexity of the property investment space as well as barriers to entry for obtaining accurate and valuable information about the property market’s movements. Australian property market is comprised of a plethora of submarkets, each with its own patterns and trajectories sometimes moving to different ‘beats’ and in different directions. Organising information to compare the investment potential of these numerous submarkets is more often than not a lengthy and costly process requiring a team of professionals.
As such, the need to Synthesise information in order to make timely and informed property investment decisions was turned into our business mandate. This has led to the development HtAG’s business model that focuses on providing a service that is accurate, easy to access and easy to understand by all, be it institutional and/or everyday investors.
We have conducted numerous tests to ensure viability of our model and the accuracy of our service which currently stands at the average of 90% accuracy level for a two-year projection. This level of accuracy exceeds that of other organisations in the market providing price forecast and other property market predictions. HtAG’s continuous improvement philosophy will ensure that we stay at the forefront of the ‘prediction market’ by maintaining the high level of accuracy since inception.
What is different about HtAG’s services in comparison to similar services of other market players is that HtAG eliminates the complexity and thus reduces margin for error in its data analysis. At HtAG, we divorce the analysis of causality between fundamental market variables such as population and unemployment and property price changes.
By recording real time movements in the property market, the plethora of causes that impact on fluctuations in property prices have already been accounted for within the collected Big Data that serves as an input into HtAG’s algorithms. At HtAG, any market changes become an instantaneous input into the HtAG prediction model ensuring the continuous agility of our predictions and alignment with existing market conditions.
HtAG forecasts property price changes on both LGA and suburb level, Australia wide and in doing so seeks to provide pertinent information to our clients so that they are able to assess the investment potential of a particular geographical location.
HtAG algorithm uses the real time recorded property sales data as an input for producing property price predictions and highlighting any future changes in property prices. Our model has the capacity to predict property prices with an accuracy well above that of our competitors. We predict property prices in one and two-year future intervals with the first-year predictions being at an average of 95% accuracy and the second-year at average 90% accuracy. That is because we trust the data, not opinions…
At HtAG, we do not allow any data to go to waste: we strive to recycle our data by packaging it in different ways with the aim of highlighting and deriving different benefits for our clients. Our aim is to continually develop different ways to organise and present the real time recorded data so that it serves evolving interest of our clients and enables more streamlined decision making.
One example of a differently packaged data set is our Growth Rate Cycle Analysis service. The Growth Rate Cycle Analysis service highlights patterns in price changes so our clients understand the current position of a geographical location within what we call the HtAG mini cycle. By looking closer at recorded data, out team has come to a realisation that in addition to the 7-10-year macro property price cycle, markets also show predictable movement patterns on a smaller 2-3 years scale.
Similarly to our price forecast service offering, the HtAG price percentage change cycles are than used to forecast future cycle movements and predict future percentage changes in property prices in a particular geographical location. Depending on their needs, this service can assist our clients in making decisions such as when to sell, when to buy or even how long they have to develop and renovate a property to take advantage of the mini cycles market movements. At HtAG, we continually keep our finger on the pulse of the market.
Highlighting the percentage change cycles of a particular suburb or LGA, our clients can also asses the long-term investment viability of an area by focusing on what we at HtAG call the ‘above zero’ benchmark – ranking an area that has experienced negative growth in the past as having lower investment appeal.
Another way HtAG aims to improve clients’ decision making is by ranking geographical locations based on their level of activity or ‘heat’. We provide a geographical scatter plot that demonstrates a level of activity in a particular location within a particular timeframe; We also turn the scatter plot data into a heat map which highlight per suburb level of activity in a particular LGA; Our clients also have the option of generating tables which provide ranking of suburbs and LGAs based on the activity volumes; Finally, the focus of our service extends to generating tables of best performing streets within a suburb/LGA based on their activity volumes.
The fundamentals analysis service offering is where we highlight correlation between price increases and exogenous variables such as population, building approvals, unemployment and interest rates. What is different about this service offering when compared to similar services in the market is that we assess fundamental variables and their impact on the price changes in a particular geographical location based on statistical analysis.
The output of this service offering serves to quantify the impact of a variable on price changes. It provides definitive relationships between fundamental variables and property prices and ranks the variables based on their level of impact.