Ku-Ring-Gai, NSW
Good to know:
Ku-ring-gai Council is an LGA located in the Upper North Shore region of Sydney, New South Wales. Renowned for its lush natural environment, it encompasses extensive bushland and part of the Garigal and Lane Cove National Parks. The area is known for its affluent suburbs, including Gordon, Killara, and Turramurra, featuring tree-lined streets and heritage-listed homes. It offers a family-friendly environment with excellent schools, parks, and sports facilities. Ku-ring-gai is committed to sustainability, showcased through numerous environmental initiatives and conservation efforts, making it one of Sydney's most desirable regions to live in.
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Market Trends
Essential metrics effectively streamline the process of identifying markets that match your financial situation and investment objectives. Typical Price, Indicative Yield and Total ROI provide a swift means to shortlist areas that resonate with what you’re seeking and can afford. These metrics also serve as valuable general trend indicators, allowing you to visualise transaction volumes and dynamics of change.
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The Growth Rate Cycle (GRC) is a metric used to analyse the year-on-year change in property values, providing insights into the growth cycle of a particular area. It uses the “typical price” metric to gauge property values more accurately than median prices, and includes both actual and projected data for the current year.
Fundamental metrics play a vital role in providing a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic environment within a specific suburb or region. Additionally, the Return on Investment (ROI) and Volatility Index are crucial metrics that aid in evaluating the prospective profitability and the level of risk or stability in the market.
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Supply metrics are crucial in gauging both the existing volumes of real estate listed for sale and the properties anticipated to enter the market soon. A diminished supply could signal opportunities for price appreciation, particularly when there’s corresponding buyer demand to buoy the market. The Stock on Market and Inventory level metrics (current values) are presented as a 3-month rolling average of monthly data shown in the charts. This means the last 3 months of data are averaged. The BA Ratio represents the proportion of building approvals over the latest 12 months relative to the total dwellings in the area.
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Demand metrics underscore the level of interest that potential property buyers or tenants have in a specific suburb or locality. When demand outstrips the available supply, or if the supply fails to meet the intensity of buyer/renter interest, there’s a potential for prices to climb, underscoring the pivotal relationship between demand dynamics and property value trends. The Days on Market and Clearance Rate metrics (current values) are presented as a 3-month rolling average of monthly data shown in the charts. This means the last 3 months of data are averaged.
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Year 2019 market outlook for Ku-Ring-Gai, NSW
Changes in the housing market have impacted most of Australia in the past 12 months. Decreasing median prices in the capital cities, the federal election and uncertainty around taxation reform have impacted buyers’ confidence in the first half of 2019. Melbourne and Sydney may have reached their ‘troughs’ with prices increasing only 0.2 and 0.1 per cent (according to the Sydney Morning Herald) respectively in the month of July.
On the other hand, rate cuts in June and July by the Reserve Bank of Australia have boosted demand while revised serviceability assessments have made loans slightly easier to attain (ABC 1 August 2019). Interest rates remain in 1 per cent at the time of publication.
What Ku Ring Gai property types are in most demand?
Ku Ring Gai has a smaller range of property types compared with some other council areas. With a total of 1135 houses and 581 units sold in the past 12 months, four-bedroom dwellings are the most popular. Detached homes represent the largest portion of sales, with units the second most popular option. Sales of four and five bedroom homes are dominant in this region, compared with the popularity of three-bedroom homes in other regions.
Median prices in the past decade for Ku Ring Gai have experienced volatile changes. From 2007 to 2015, values increased by 50 per cent, followed by a gradual slow down in price growth bottoming at 0 per cent in 2018. In 2019 the local housing market experienced its’ first decline in 10 years with prices crossing the red line into the negative region with yearly change of -1 per cent. HtAG forecast a marginal median price decline for houses within the next two years. However, considering overall changes to property values in the last decade, Ku Ring Gai median house price has increased by 76 per cent.
2019 Capital Growth Heatmaps for Ku Ring Gai houses
With median price growth entering the negative territory in 2019, Ku Ring Gai has experienced a range of price changes in the past 12 months. The heatmaps tab within our set of available tools illustrates the annual median price change for a specific area, in this case Ku Ring Gai, for 2018 to 2019.
Price changes for houses in Ku Ring Gai range from negative 3.2 to positive 1.5 per cent for the past 12 months. East Killara experienced the strongest growth at 1.52 per cent while Turramurra experienced a decline of 3.17 per cent. Given these changes, it is important to note that some suburbs may have characteristics such as a low number of property sales, which tends to produce low confidence medians. In these situations a single discounted sale may skew the suburb’s overalll median price. At a minimum an average of 10 sales is needed for a suburb to exhibit an accurate measurement of price median values.
Warrawee, Pymble and East Lindfield experienced almost neutral median price changes, between minus 0.67 and 0.65 per cent. Given the market cycle position, we can expect the percentage growth to increase slightly or stay the same across the region.
The overall trend shown in the heatmaps tab shows a range of sale prices spanning from $1,100,000 to $3,100,000, shown in red, orange, yellow, light and dark green. The suburbs of Turramurra, South Turramurra, West Pymble, and Killara show a dominant red heatmap representing sale prices of $1,100,000 to $1,500,000. The central areas of Pymble, Gordon, Killara, Lindfield and Roseville show a light green to dark green heatmap representing sale prices of $2,200,000 to $3,100,000. The north east suburbs of North Turramurra, St Ives, East Killara and East Lindfield have a mixed range from orange to dark green.
2019 Capital Growth Heatpas for Ku Ring Gai units
Units in Ku Ring Gai have seen a 52 per cent increase from 2007 to 2015, followed by a gradual slowdown in growth bottoming at just 1% in 2019. HtAG forecasts a 7 per cent increase in the median price for units within the next two years.
Most of the suburbs in Ku Ring Gai have experienced some positive growth, up to nine per cent, in the past year. However, St Ives experienced a reduction of 2.04 per cent in the value of units. St Ives has had only five sales this quarter which is commonly a poor indicator of median price confidence.
The highest growth area with dark green is Lindfield with price growth of 9.42 per cent. There have been only three sales this quarter, however this number is likely to duable by the time the quarter is closed. Given the market cycle position, we can expect the overall value of units to increase for most of the Ku Ring Gai area.
The overall trend shown in the heatmaps tab shows a dominant red to yellow range, representing sale prices from $500,000 to $1,200,000. The number of dots in the heatmap is limited due to lower numbers of sales of units compared with other council areas. The activity is also concentrated in the central area.
Warrawee, Turramurra and Pymble have more dominant red heatmaps representing $500,000 – $600,000 sale prices. Gordon, Killara and Lindfield have a array of red to dark green heatmap representing sale prices ranging from $500,000 to $1,800,000. However, there have been a relatively small number of sales within each colour bin.
Conclusion
The overall property market outlook for Ku Ring Gai shows mixed demand; houses will likely experience a minor decline in median price and units are set to continue exhibiting positive marginal growth. Two-bedroom units and four-bedroom homes are the most popular across the region. The area has experienced a range of price changes indicating a diverse mix of opportunity. There is stronger demand for properties in the central area while more expensive properties in the outer areas of the council area may experience a softening of sale price. Units across the LGA show strong demand, especially those in the central areas.
Are you a real estate professional with an extensive knowledge of the Ku-Ring-Gai Council property market? What is the outlook of the market from your point of view? Our members would love to hear from you! Share your insights in a comment below.