Ermington, NSW 2115
City Of Parramatta Council, New South Wales
Good to Know
Ermington, NSW 2115 is a high-value house market in the City Of Parramatta Council area, currently positioned as a mature capital‑growth submarket. Located around 18 km north‑west of Sydney CBD, it is home to roughly 12,686 adults across 5,368 dwellings, with a vacancy rate of 1.13%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Ermington is exhibiting tight supply and rising rental pressure. Stock on Market sits at 0.11% and Inventory at 2.73 months — slightly below the ~3‑month balanced‑market threshold — driving -0.3% YoY price growth and +6.2% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Ermington shows a clear split between price and rent momentum: prices are essentially flat over 12 months (-0.3%) while rents are strong (+6.2%), compressing gross yields to 2.15% — below the commonly recommended 3% threshold. Low Stock on Market at 0.11% is an opportune supply signal that supports ongoing rental pressure, while Inventory at 2.73 months sits in the balanced band; together these factors suggest tighter rental conditions even as capital growth has paused. For a visual of where this sits in the broader spectrum, see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Ermington — and why it matters for investors
Ermington scores an IRSAD decile of 9, indicating an affluent demographic base that tends to support lower volatility and longer-term capital resilience. The renter/owner split is 43% (neutral) and the units/houses mix is 34% (neutral), so the suburb blends owner‑occupier stability with a sizeable rental cohort — a mix that can sustain demand in both sales and lettings. See our IRSAD Crossover study for how socio‑economic positioning affects long‑run outcomes.
Why suburb-level data matters for Ermington
Suburb metrics reveal the detail investors need: Ermington’s typical house price is $2,111,496 with a gross yield of 2.15%, Stock on Market at 0.11%, Inventory 2.73 months and median Days on Market at 69 days. Those locality‑level readings can be very different from council or region averages, so decisions should rest on the suburb’s own signals rather than broad averages. Read more on the limits of aggregation in our LGA vs Suburb research.
For a downloadable breakdown, get the full Ermington data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 33
The HtAG RCS™ bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital‑growth potential and cashflow resilience — into a single composite. A score of 33 signals that Ermington currently ranks lower on the combined scale, largely driven by compressed yields and the affordability stretch in the suburb; examining the sub‑scores is essential to match the market to a strategy (capital growth vs cashflow). Learn more about how the RCS™ is built. To investigate live, open Ermington in HtAG Copilot.
Forward signals to watch
The vacancy rate — currently 1.13%: this sits in the balanced band; sustained falls below 1% over 12–24 months would intensify rental pressure and likely push rents higher, while moves higher would relieve renter strain.
The building approvals ratio — currently 0.88%: this is in the neutral band, meaning new supply is moderate. A sustained rise above the high band would introduce meaningful additional stock and could ease rental tightness over time.
The Sydney cycle phase: a city‑wide upswing would likely lift local price momentum and shorten effective hold periods, while a broader Sydney slowdown would increase downside risk and could extend the time required to realise capital gains in Ermington.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Ermington's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Market Trends
Ermington's headline values — $2,111K to buy and $875PW to rent, a 2.15% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 66.89% and rents 58.05% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$2,111K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$875PW today, with rent growth at (+6.2% YoY) compared to price growth (-0.27%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Ermington in its cycle - and is the 2.15% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Ermington's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Ermington carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Ermington's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Ermington can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Ermington genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Ermington prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Ermington - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Ermington looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Ermington's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Ermington has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Ermington shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Ermington has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Ermington 2115 NSW is 10,235, with a median age of 37. Of those, 51.52% are married, 11.18% are divorced or separated, 32.74% are single and 4.59% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.8 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $9,268. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $2,600 which is 28.05% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)