Warragul, VIC 3820
Baw Baw Shire, Victoria
Good to Know
Warragul, VIC 3820 is a balanced house market in the Baw Baw Shire area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Located around 100 km south‑east of Melbourne CBD, Warragul is home to roughly 19,856 adults across 11,750 dwellings and records a vacancy rate of 1.59%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Warragul is exhibiting balanced supply and steady demand. Stock on Market sits at 0.46% and Inventory at 3.16 months — slightly above the ~3‑month balanced‑market threshold — driving +8.7% YoY price growth and +6.7% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Warragul shows simultaneous capital and rental momentum: 1‑year price growth of +8.7% with rent growth of +6.7%, while yields remain market‑competitive at 3.59%. With vacancy at 1.59% and neutral supply readings, this combination signals continued buyer interest supporting capital gains alongside firm rental demand. See the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap for visual context.
Who lives in Warragul — and why it matters for investors
Warragul records an IRSAD of 992, above our minimum recommended threshold, indicating a modestly advantaged socio‑economic profile that tends to stabilise demand and reduce downside volatility. The renter/owner mix at 22.0% sits in the neutral band, and a units/houses ratio of 8.0% is opportune for house investors because limited unit stock can reduce intra‑market competition. For the evidence behind socio‑economic effects see the IRSAD Crossover study.
Why suburb-level data matters for Warragul
Suburb‑level metrics matter because council or LGA averages can mask pockets like Warragul. Decisions should be driven by Warragul’s own indicators: a typical house price of $759,175, gross yield of 3.59%, Stock on Market at 0.46%, Inventory of 3.16 months and median days on market of 51 days. Localised figures like these are what determine short‑term liquidity and medium‑term upside — not broad averages. Read more in our LGA vs Suburb research.
Download the full Warragul, VIC 3820 data guide for the complete suburb report.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 86
Warragul’s HtAG RCS™ of 86 is a composite that bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital‑growth potential and cashflow resilience — into one score to simplify initial screening. Digging into the sub‑scores is important to match the market to your strategy: high composite scores can hide whether the strength is tilted to capital or to cashflow. Learn how the RCS™ is built. To explore this suburb interactively, open Warragul in HtAG Copilot.
Forward signals to watch
Monitor the vacancy rate — currently 1.59%: sustained neutral‑to‑low vacancy over 12–24 months usually supports further rent growth and reduces downside cashflow risk for investors.
Watch the building approvals ratio — currently 0.41%: this neutral reading suggests only a modest development pipeline; a sustained rise above the neutral band would signal growing supply pressure.
Keep an eye on the wider Melbourne cycle phase: a city‑level shift — either slowing or accelerating — will influence local buyer sentiment and financing conditions, which in turn affects Warragul’s momentum.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
Get full accessCritical to know
RCS Breakdown
Warragul's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
starter
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Market Trends
Warragul's headline values — $759K to buy and $523PW to rent, a 3.58% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 103.72% and rents 71.80% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$759K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$523PW today, with rent growth at (+6.72% YoY) compared to price growth (+8.7%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Warragul in its cycle - and is the 3.58% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
Investor
Pro
Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Warragul's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Warragul carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Warragul's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Fundamentals
Warragul can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Warragul genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Warragul prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Warragul - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
Investor
Pro
Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Warragul looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Warragul's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Warragul has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
Investor
Pro
Full HtAG Intelligence
Warragul shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Warragul has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Warragul 3820 VIC is 16,218, with a median age of 40. Of those, 48.37% are married, 12.37% are divorced or separated, 33.20% are single and 6.07% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.5 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $7,936. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,625 which is 20.48% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)