Rye, VIC 3941
Mornington Peninsula Shire, Victoria
Good to Know
Rye, VIC 3941 is a tightly-held house market in the Mornington Peninsula Shire area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Located on the Mornington Peninsula about 90 km south‑east of Melbourne CBD, Rye is home to roughly 9,438 adults across 10,249 dwellings and currently records a vacancy rate of 1.71%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Rye is exhibiting constrained supply with steady rental momentum. Stock on Market sits at 0.18% and Inventory at 3.28 months — marginally either side of the ~3‑month balanced threshold — driving -1.1% YoY price growth and +4.0% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Rye shows falling headline prices over 12 months (-1.1%) while rents are rising (+4.0%), a combination that often improves rental returns even when capital gains are soft. With a gross yield of 3.12% (above the 3% guideline) and very low Stock on Market at 0.18%, the market is supply‑constrained — though Inventory of 3.28 months keeps listing cadence near the balanced zone. For a visual of where Rye sits in broader momentum, see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Rye — and why it matters for investors
Rye's IRSAD of 1009 (above the 927 threshold) signals relative affluence, which tends to reduce volatility and support long‑run capital resilience. The Renter/Owner split is 21.0% (neutral), while the Units/Houses mix is only 4.0% (opportune for house investors because unit competition is limited). Longer hold periods (10.73 years) also indicate an owner cohort that typically reduces turnover — see the HtAG IRSAD Crossover study for how socio‑economic mix affects growth patterns.
Why suburb-level data matters for Rye
Council‑level averages can mask pockets like Rye: local sellers, buyer demand and housing composition create distinct micromarkets. For Rye specifically, the typical house price is $999,832, gross yield is 3.12%, Stock on Market is 0.18%, Inventory is 3.28 months and median days on market are 56 days. Those suburb‑level metrics should drive buy/sell decisions rather than a single council average — read more in our LGA vs Suburb research.
For downloadable detail, get the full Rye, VIC 3941 data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 64
HtAG's RCS™ score of 64 bundles three orthogonal dimensions — risk minimisation, capital‑growth potential and cashflow resilience — into one composite so investors can quickly screen suitability to strategy. The sub‑score breakdown matters for matching Rye to specific goals: a stronger cashflow leg (rent growth and yield) versus weaker short‑term capital tone. Read how the RCS™ is constructed at how the RCS™ is built, or open Rye in HtAG Copilot to explore the score breakdown interactively.
Forward signals to watch
vacancy rate — currently 1.71%: sustained balanced vacancy around this band over 12–24 months typically keeps rent growth steady but limits upside from extreme tightness.
building approvals ratio — currently 0.33%: this reading sits in the neutral zone (not enough new supply to flood the market, but not so low as to guarantee supply scarcity later).
Melbourne cycle phase: a shift in the Melbourne‑wide cycle (either towards recovery or decline) would influence buyer appetite and capital flows into Rye, so monitor city‑level indicators to anticipate local momentum changes.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Rye's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Critical to know
Market Trends
Rye's headline values — $999K to buy and $597PW to rent, a 3.1% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 58.74% and rents 71.63% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$999K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$597PW today, with rent growth at (+3.99% YoY) compared to price growth (-1.06%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Rye in its cycle - and is the 3.1% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Rye's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Rye carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Rye's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Rye can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Rye genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Rye prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Rye - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Rye looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Rye's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Rye has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Rye shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Rye has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Rye 3941 VIC is 8,071, with a median age of 51. Of those, 46.17% are married, 16.18% are divorced or separated, 31.38% are single and 6.31% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.2 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $6,848. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,800 which is 26.29% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)