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Mitchell Shire, VIC

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Mitchell Shire is a local government district in Victoria’s Hume region, about 30-90 kilometres north of the Melbourne CBD and is one of the fastest growing regional municipalities in Victoria. The city had a population of 46,082 as of 2019 and is expected to reach 270,000 in the next 25-30 years. Most growth is expected in the southern townships of Beveridge, Kilmore, Kilmore East and Wallan.

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According to the latest Census, 18,407 people living in Mitchell Shire are employed, of which 62% worked full-time and 36% part-time. More Mitchell Shire residents worked in construction than any other industry and features a large portion of technicians and trades workers.

The LGA is one of Victoria’s fastest growing regional municipalities. Properties in Mitchell Shire are a magnet for families with children as its affluence and many quality schools make it a prime location.

Mitchell Shire has low crime rates and excellent transport infrastructure making it a desired location for home owners. As homes are more affordable in Mitchell Shire than in Melbourne, a lot of investors chose to increase rentability of their property by renovating and upgrading after purchase.

In addition Mitchel Shire is one of the most sought after places for people looking to buy a piece of land. With beautiful views, residential appeal and the opportunity to build on these special properties the demand for land in this LGA is not surprising.

Discover the latest trends in the Mitchll Shire LGA property market by exploring the real estate data using the interactive dashboard below.

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Suburb Heatmap Analysis

Property Market Snapshot

This page provides an overview of the LGA real estate market. The data in this snapshot illustrates typical price, median rent and gross yield metrics for this council area. You are able to drill down to suburb-level data and charts which visualise these 3 key metrics as well as other important indicators in the dashboard section that follows.

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Auction chart

How was this calculated? Typical Price is a continuous metric calculated via a process called data fitting. Median Rent is weekly advertised rent based on rentals over the preceding 12 months. Gross Yield is Median Rent x 52 x 100 / Typical Price. To discover additional information, click the “i” icon in the top left corner of each graph or visit the Data Dictionary page.

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Property Market in Mitchell Shire, VIC

What other property markets are there near Mitchell Shire, VIC?

Mitchell Shire is surrounded by 6 other council areas – Murrindindi, Strathbogie, Hume, Greater Bendigo, Mount Alexander, Whittlesea.

Suburbs/localities in this Local Government Area: Glenaroua 3764, Glenhope 3444, Glenhope East 3522, Heathcote Junction 3758, Heathcote South 3523, High Camp 3764, Highlands 3660, Hilldene 3660, Kilmore 3764, Kilmore East 3764, Mia Mia 3444, Moranding 3764, Northwood 3660, Nulla Vale 3435, Puckapunyal 3662, Pyalong 3521, Seymour 3660, Beveridge 3753, Sugarloaf Creek 3658, Sunday Creek 3658, Tallarook 3659, Tarcombe 3666, Tooborac 3522, Trawool 3660, Tyaak 3658, Upper Plenty 3756, Wallan 3756, Wandong 3758, Waterford Park 3658, Whiteheads Creek 3660, Willowmavin 3764, Reedy Creek 3658, Broadford 3658, Bylands 3762, Clonbinane 3658, Avenel 3664, Flowerdale 3717, Forbes 3764

1 thought on “Mitchell Shire, VIC”

  1. Property Market Outlook for Mitchel Shire, VIC

    In Mitchell Shire there were 452 residential buildings approved to be built in the financial year 2019-20 Feb FYTD.

    Population 46,082
    Unemployment Rate 4.3%
    Industry Construction
    Occupation Non-Professionals
    Building Approvals 452
    Vacancy Rate 0.88%
    Rental Population 19.33%

    Dwelling Type Demand Profile

    Compared to the national average, there is greater buyer demand for houses in Mitchell Shire compared to units. Across Mitchell Shire, the greatest demand is for three and four bedroom houses, with two and three bedroom units making up only a small portion of the demand profile in the area.

    Three bedroom homes makeup the largest demand sector of the market in Mitchell Shire. As of Q2 2020 the rental gross yield for houses and units is 3.8% and 4.41% respectively.

    How does Mitchell Shire market compare to neighbouring LGAs?

    According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Mitchell Shire is A$508,409 with a -$81,000 to +$278,000 variance compared to the neighbouring LGAs. Macedon Ranges Shire has a significantly higher median house price, while Greater Bendigo City and Murrindindi Shire are slightly below Mitchell Shire.

    Macedon Ranges Shire: A$786,800
    Whittlesea City: A$631,469
    Hume City: A$588,843
    Mitchell Shire: A$508,409
    Greater Bendigo City: A$455,749
    Murrindindi Shire: A$448,952
    Strathbogie Shire: A$427,438

    House prices in Mitchell Shire have started 2020 strongly, increasing 3.16% as shown on the heat map. In comparison 4 of the remaining 6 neighbouring LGAs exhibited positive growth above 3%, with Greater Strathbogie Shire being the strongest performer in the area with 5.93%.

    Strathbogie Shire: 5.93%
    Macedon Ranges Shire: 4.95%
    Greater Bendigo City: 4.37%
    Murrindindi Shire: 4.21%
    Mitchell Shire: 3.16%
    Whittlesea City: -0.78%
    Hume City: -2.83%

    The unit market in Mitchell Shire is limited compared to the house market, with units priced at a median value of A$331,643. Neighbouring LGA prices vary in the range of -$95,000 to +$69,000 with the median price for units reported as:

    Hume City: A$400,179
    Whittlesea City: A$398,041
    Mitchell Shire: A$331,643
    Greater Bendigo City: A$236,720

    Unit prices in Mitchell Shire have seen very strong growth in 2020 with a 9.02% increase. Out of the neighbouring LGAs, Mitchell Shire has seen the highest rate of growth in 2020, by a significant margin.

    Mitchell Shire: 9.02%
    Whittlesea City: 0.61%
    Hume City: 0.43%
    Greater Bendigo City: -0.67%

    Property Market Outlook for Mitchell Shire Houses

    HtAG property market data for Mitchell Shire shows that sales volume for houses had been steadily increasing up until Q1 2019 where it fell away slightly. Sales volumes have been averaging 130-150 transactions each quarter since their bottom in Q1 2019. Rental volumes have been in a steady up trend since Q1 2018, but have always risen since 2008.

    Median house prices have been consistently increasing since 2008 reaching A$510,000 as of Q2 2020. HtAG forecasts show that median values are expected to move slightly higher to A$520,000 into Q2 2022. The median value of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses had been rising steadily since 2008. Median values currently sit at A$360,000, A$430,000, A$570,000 and A$670,000 respectively.

    Median rents have increased steadily since 2008 but had small dips in 2013 and 2014 and currently sit at A$370. The median rental price of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses is A$290, A$340, $400 and $440 respectively. HtAG forecasts that the median rental value is expected to remain steady at A$370 into Q2 2022.

    Property Cycle Position of Mitchell Shire Houses

    Annual Growth of rate for Mitchel Shire Housing Market is currently at 3.06% and is at its lowest level since 2015 and is declining. In 2018, growth had been as high as 9.43%, with the prior peak in 2012 at 3.88%. There were two previous dips that saw growth fall to 1.94% in 2011 and 1.74% in 2013.

    According to HtAG forecasts, growth rates will continue lower into 2021 and 2022 reaching 0.59% in 2022. Currently house prices are at approximately 5 o’clock on the property clock as the growth cycle slows (declining).

    Suburb Capital Growth and Price Heatmaps for Houses in Mitchell Shire

    The heatmap above represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis. The green areas show a percentage increase ranging from 6%-7% with the highest growth in the suburb of Seymour (7.64%), Avenel (4.93%) and Kilmore (4.9%).

    Kilmore houses grew in value in 2020 by 4.9% to A$5502,904
    Wallan houses grew in value in 2020 by 2.6% to A$511,931
    Beveridge houses grew in value in 2020 by 1.77% to A$600,200

    The red areas show the suburbs that have decreased in value by less than 2.7% in 2020. The suburb with the weakest growth in that range was Beveridge Houses at 1.77%.

    The scatter plot above shows all the individual sales over the past year and their concentration in the LGA. Wangond is the higher end suburb where most of the sales in the A$600,000-A$900,00 range occurred.

    The vast majority of sales have been in and around Kilmore, Wallan and Broadford in the price range of A$400,000-A$550,000. Sales volumes have been consistent across the town centre areas of the LGA.

    Property Market Forecast for Mitchell Shire Units

    The median price for units in Mitchell Shire is only modestly lower than the median price for houses. Units had a median price of A$330,000 in the second quarter of 2020. Overall, the trend in median prices has been continually increasing since 2008, with a flat period from 2013-2015.

    The trend is very different with rental prices for units where they have seen three price peaks in 2011, 2015 and 2018 followed by subsequent falls. The maximum median rent was A$300 per week in Q4 2018, while the lowest level was A$220 per week in Q4 2013. The median rent is currently $270 per week.

    Sales volumes fell away sharply in late-2017 and remain low at under 10 transactions on average. According to market forecasts by HtAG, the median price of units will increase headed into Q2 2022, to A$360,000 from the current value of A$330,000. By Q2 2022, it is forecast that the median rent will increase to A$280 per week from the current value of A$270.

    Property Cycle Position of Mitchell Shire Units

    Market cycle graph for Mitchell Shire units above shows that prices increased significantly in 2013 (6.15%) and 2018 (7.9%) as well as seeing further growth into 2020, where the growth rate peaked at 9.02%. The growth rate fell to 0.93% in 2015. According to HtAG forecasts, that growth in unit values will continue to slow to 2.97% into 2022.

    According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for units in this LGA are starting to slow down after a strong run of increasing capital growth and would be approximately 12 o’clock on the property clock (peak).

    Suburb Capital Growth & Price Variance Heatmaps for Units in Mitchell Shire

    The heatmap above represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis for units in Mitchell Shire in 2020.

    Wallan units grew in value in 2020 by 3.91% to A$350,324. Kilmore units grew in value in 2020 by 2.1% to A$325,392. However, we must note there has only been 2-5 sales in each of the suburbs mentioned in the unit markets.

    Looking at the scatter plot, there are far fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. Sales are evenly distributed around Wallan and Kilmore, with prices in the A$300,000 to A$400,000 range.

    Conclusion

    Mitchell Shire appears to be coming into a short-term period of lower returns, however, a number of suburbs within the LGA are set for continued solid growth headed into 2022. Over the next two years, HtAG forecasts Seymour houses to grow by +7.37% by Q2 2022 which is assessed as high confidence due to the strong sales volumes (4) in the quarter.

    Wallan is also predicted to grow strongly by +6.18% (to A$543,570) by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 9 sales. Wallan is assessed as a rising market. Kilmore is predicted to grow strongly by +5.53% (to A$530,700) by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 8 sales. Kilmore is assessed as a declining market.

    Beveridge is predicted to see modest growth of +0.87% (to A$605,437) by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having medium confidence based on 4 sales. Beveridge is assessed as a declining market. In terms of areas that will likely see weak growth by Q1 2022, HtAG forecasts Broadford houses to grow in median value by only 0.15% with high confidence.

    The suburbs that are expected to show the strongest rental yields by Q1 2022 are Broadford (4.58%), Avenel (4.51%), and Flowerdale (4.05%). For the unit market, the suburb of Wallan is predicted to grow at +4.47% by Q2 2022, with low confidence based on limited sales data. Kilmore is expected to grow at +3.51% with high confidence.

    Yields for Wallan and Kilmore units are forecast to be 4.82% and 4.88% respectively in Q2 2022.

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