Mitchell Shire
Victoria
Good to Know
Mitchell Shire is a mid-priced house market in the Mitchell Shire area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Located north of the Melbourne CBD, the LGA is home to roughly 49,460 adults across 32,741 dwellings and records a vacancy rate of 1.82%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Mitchell Shire is exhibiting mixed supply signals with firm buyer interest. Stock on Market sits at 0.35% and Inventory at 3.37 months — just above the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +6.7% YoY price growth and +1.3% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Mitchell Shire shows capital growth momentum outpacing rental growth: prices are up 6.7% year-on-year while rents have lifted 1.3%. That divergence, combined with an indicative gross yield of 3.36%, suggests investors are still getting acceptable yield while capital gains are the stronger near-term return driver. For a visual of how Mitchell Shire fits into broader market heatmaps see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Mitchell Shire — and why it matters for investors
Mitchell Shire scores an IRSAD decile of 7, indicating relatively advantaged socio-economic characteristics that tend to support lower volatility and steadier long-cycle growth. The renter/owner split sits at 20% (neutral), while the units/houses mix is only 5% (opportune), meaning the housing market is house-dominant — a structural plus for house investors. Read the IRSAD Crossover study for how socio-economic mix influences long-term outcomes.
Why Mitchell Shire is a screening layer, not a final answer
LGA-level averages can mask very different suburb pockets inside council boundaries; Mitchell Shire should be treated as an initial screen to identify candidates for deeper suburb-level due diligence. Key local metrics to take forward include a typical house price of $708,009, a gross yield of 3.36%, a Stock on Market of 0.35% and Inventory of 3.37 months, with median days on market at 42 days. These figures describe a market with tight listings but a neutral month-stock balance — useful context before you drill into individual towns and streets. See LGA vs Suburb research for why suburb-level metrics must guide purchase decisions.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 39
The HtAG RCS™ (Rating Composite Score) bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into one composite figure. A score of 39 signals a market with some upside in growth but trade-offs in affordability and supply dynamics; reviewing the separate sub-scores helps match Mitchell Shire to your strategy. Learn how the RCS™ is built. To explore the detailed metrics and scenario modelling, open Mitchell Shire in HtAG Copilot.
Forward signals to watch
The vacancy rate — currently 1.82%: sustained vacancies in the balanced band typically keep rental growth constrained; a sustained move below 1% would tighten rents, while a rise above 3.5% would signal weakening rental demand.
The building approvals ratio — currently 2.82%: this elevated approvals reading is unfavourable for price upside if it translates to a wave of completions, so watch consent-to-completion timing and where new stock is concentrated.
The Melbourne cycle phase: a city-wide slowdown or acceleration will influence buyer demand and finance availability across Mitchell Shire; an adverse shift would damp local momentum, while a renewed metro upswing would flow northward into this LGA.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Mitchell Shire's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Market Trends
Mitchell Shire's headline values — $708K to buy and $458PW to rent, a 3.36% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 93.68% and rents 53.18% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$708K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$458PW today, with rent growth at (+1.32% YoY) compared to price growth (+6.71%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Mitchell Shire in its cycle - and is the 3.36% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Mitchell Shire's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Mitchell Shire carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Mitchell Shire's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Mitchell Shire can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Mitchell Shire genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Mitchell Shire prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Mitchell Shire - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Mitchell Shire looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Mitchell Shire's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Mitchell Shire has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Mitchell Shire shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Mitchell Shire has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
Property Market Outlook for Mitchel Shire, VIC
In Mitchell Shire there were 452 residential buildings approved to be built in the financial year 2019-20 Feb FYTD.
Population 46,082
Unemployment Rate 4.3%
Industry Construction
Occupation Non-Professionals
Building Approvals 452
Vacancy Rate 0.88%
Rental Population 19.33%
Dwelling Type Demand Profile
Compared to the national average, there is greater buyer demand for houses in Mitchell Shire compared to units. Across Mitchell Shire, the greatest demand is for three and four bedroom houses, with two and three bedroom units making up only a small portion of the demand profile in the area.
Three bedroom homes makeup the largest demand sector of the market in Mitchell Shire. As of Q2 2020 the rental gross yield for houses and units is 3.8% and 4.41% respectively.
How does Mitchell Shire market compare to neighbouring LGAs?
According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Mitchell Shire is A$508,409 with a -$81,000 to +$278,000 variance compared to the neighbouring LGAs. Macedon Ranges Shire has a significantly higher median house price, while Greater Bendigo City and Murrindindi Shire are slightly below Mitchell Shire.
Macedon Ranges Shire: A$786,800
Whittlesea City: A$631,469
Hume City: A$588,843
Mitchell Shire: A$508,409
Greater Bendigo City: A$455,749
Murrindindi Shire: A$448,952
Strathbogie Shire: A$427,438
House prices in Mitchell Shire have started 2020 strongly, increasing 3.16% as shown on the heat map. In comparison 4 of the remaining 6 neighbouring LGAs exhibited positive growth above 3%, with Greater Strathbogie Shire being the strongest performer in the area with 5.93%.
Strathbogie Shire: 5.93%
Macedon Ranges Shire: 4.95%
Greater Bendigo City: 4.37%
Murrindindi Shire: 4.21%
Mitchell Shire: 3.16%
Whittlesea City: -0.78%
Hume City: -2.83%
The unit market in Mitchell Shire is limited compared to the house market, with units priced at a median value of A$331,643. Neighbouring LGA prices vary in the range of -$95,000 to +$69,000 with the median price for units reported as:
Hume City: A$400,179
Whittlesea City: A$398,041
Mitchell Shire: A$331,643
Greater Bendigo City: A$236,720
Unit prices in Mitchell Shire have seen very strong growth in 2020 with a 9.02% increase. Out of the neighbouring LGAs, Mitchell Shire has seen the highest rate of growth in 2020, by a significant margin.
Mitchell Shire: 9.02%
Whittlesea City: 0.61%
Hume City: 0.43%
Greater Bendigo City: -0.67%
Property Market Outlook for Mitchell Shire Houses
HtAG property market data for Mitchell Shire shows that sales volume for houses had been steadily increasing up until Q1 2019 where it fell away slightly. Sales volumes have been averaging 130-150 transactions each quarter since their bottom in Q1 2019. Rental volumes have been in a steady up trend since Q1 2018, but have always risen since 2008.
Median house prices have been consistently increasing since 2008 reaching A$510,000 as of Q2 2020. HtAG forecasts show that median values are expected to move slightly higher to A$520,000 into Q2 2022. The median value of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses had been rising steadily since 2008. Median values currently sit at A$360,000, A$430,000, A$570,000 and A$670,000 respectively.
Median rents have increased steadily since 2008 but had small dips in 2013 and 2014 and currently sit at A$370. The median rental price of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses is A$290, A$340, $400 and $440 respectively. HtAG forecasts that the median rental value is expected to remain steady at A$370 into Q2 2022.
Property Cycle Position of Mitchell Shire Houses
Annual Growth of rate for Mitchel Shire Housing Market is currently at 3.06% and is at its lowest level since 2015 and is declining. In 2018, growth had been as high as 9.43%, with the prior peak in 2012 at 3.88%. There were two previous dips that saw growth fall to 1.94% in 2011 and 1.74% in 2013.
According to HtAG forecasts, growth rates will continue lower into 2021 and 2022 reaching 0.59% in 2022. Currently house prices are at approximately 5 o’clock on the property clock as the growth cycle slows (declining).
Suburb Capital Growth and Price Heatmaps for Houses in Mitchell Shire
The heatmap above represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis. The green areas show a percentage increase ranging from 6%-7% with the highest growth in the suburb of Seymour (7.64%), Avenel (4.93%) and Kilmore (4.9%).
Kilmore houses grew in value in 2020 by 4.9% to A$5502,904
Wallan houses grew in value in 2020 by 2.6% to A$511,931
Beveridge houses grew in value in 2020 by 1.77% to A$600,200
The red areas show the suburbs that have decreased in value by less than 2.7% in 2020. The suburb with the weakest growth in that range was Beveridge Houses at 1.77%.
The scatter plot above shows all the individual sales over the past year and their concentration in the LGA. Wangond is the higher end suburb where most of the sales in the A$600,000-A$900,00 range occurred.
The vast majority of sales have been in and around Kilmore, Wallan and Broadford in the price range of A$400,000-A$550,000. Sales volumes have been consistent across the town centre areas of the LGA.
Property Market Forecast for Mitchell Shire Units
The median price for units in Mitchell Shire is only modestly lower than the median price for houses. Units had a median price of A$330,000 in the second quarter of 2020. Overall, the trend in median prices has been continually increasing since 2008, with a flat period from 2013-2015.
The trend is very different with rental prices for units where they have seen three price peaks in 2011, 2015 and 2018 followed by subsequent falls. The maximum median rent was A$300 per week in Q4 2018, while the lowest level was A$220 per week in Q4 2013. The median rent is currently $270 per week.
Sales volumes fell away sharply in late-2017 and remain low at under 10 transactions on average. According to market forecasts by HtAG, the median price of units will increase headed into Q2 2022, to A$360,000 from the current value of A$330,000. By Q2 2022, it is forecast that the median rent will increase to A$280 per week from the current value of A$270.
Property Cycle Position of Mitchell Shire Units
Market cycle graph for Mitchell Shire units above shows that prices increased significantly in 2013 (6.15%) and 2018 (7.9%) as well as seeing further growth into 2020, where the growth rate peaked at 9.02%. The growth rate fell to 0.93% in 2015. According to HtAG forecasts, that growth in unit values will continue to slow to 2.97% into 2022.
According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for units in this LGA are starting to slow down after a strong run of increasing capital growth and would be approximately 12 o’clock on the property clock (peak).
Suburb Capital Growth & Price Variance Heatmaps for Units in Mitchell Shire
The heatmap above represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis for units in Mitchell Shire in 2020.
Wallan units grew in value in 2020 by 3.91% to A$350,324. Kilmore units grew in value in 2020 by 2.1% to A$325,392. However, we must note there has only been 2-5 sales in each of the suburbs mentioned in the unit markets.
Looking at the scatter plot, there are far fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. Sales are evenly distributed around Wallan and Kilmore, with prices in the A$300,000 to A$400,000 range.
Conclusion
Mitchell Shire appears to be coming into a short-term period of lower returns, however, a number of suburbs within the LGA are set for continued solid growth headed into 2022. Over the next two years, HtAG forecasts Seymour houses to grow by +7.37% by Q2 2022 which is assessed as high confidence due to the strong sales volumes (4) in the quarter.
Wallan is also predicted to grow strongly by +6.18% (to A$543,570) by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 9 sales. Wallan is assessed as a rising market. Kilmore is predicted to grow strongly by +5.53% (to A$530,700) by Q2 2022 and is also assessed as having high confidence based on 8 sales. Kilmore is assessed as a declining market.
Beveridge is predicted to see modest growth of +0.87% (to A$605,437) by Q2 2022 and is assessed as having medium confidence based on 4 sales. Beveridge is assessed as a declining market. In terms of areas that will likely see weak growth by Q1 2022, HtAG forecasts Broadford houses to grow in median value by only 0.15% with high confidence.
The suburbs that are expected to show the strongest rental yields by Q1 2022 are Broadford (4.58%), Avenel (4.51%), and Flowerdale (4.05%). For the unit market, the suburb of Wallan is predicted to grow at +4.47% by Q2 2022, with low confidence based on limited sales data. Kilmore is expected to grow at +3.51% with high confidence.
Yields for Wallan and Kilmore units are forecast to be 4.82% and 4.88% respectively in Q2 2022.