Narre Warren, VIC 3805
Casey City, Victoria
Good to Know
Narre Warren, VIC 3805 is a family-focused house market in the Casey City area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Approximately 38 km south‑east of Melbourne CBD, Narre Warren is home to roughly 27,689 adults across 11,152 dwellings, and is currently recording a vacancy rate of 1.61%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Narre Warren is exhibiting supply-constrained conditions. Stock on Market sits at 0.28% and Inventory at 2.08 months — both below the ~3‑month balanced-market threshold — driving +3.7% YoY price growth and +2.5% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Narre Warren’s house market shows modest capital appreciation outpacing rental growth: prices are up 3.7% over 12 months while rents have risen 2.5%. That divergence, combined with an indicative gross yield of 3.49% (above the common 3% benchmark), points to a market where capital returns are the clearer driver of total returns today.
Supply-side indicators are supportive: Stock on Market is just 0.28% and Inventory is 2.08 months, pressuring upward momentum if demand holds. For a live view of how Narre Warren fits into national momentum see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Narre Warren — and why it matters for investors
Narre Warren records an IRSAD decile of 4, indicating a lower-middle socio‑economic profile that can correlate with greater price sensitivity and more cyclical demand. The renter/owner split is 28% (neutral band) and the units/houses ratio is 13% (neutral), suggesting this market is still mainly owner-occupied houses with a stable rental cohort. For deeper context on how socio‑economic bands influence long-cycle growth, see the IRSAD Crossover study.
Why suburb-level data matters for Narre Warren
Council or LGA averages can hide very different suburb dynamics, so investment decisions should be grounded in Narre Warren’s own metrics. Locally the typical house price sits at $842,250, the indicative gross yield is 3.49%, Stock on Market is 0.28%, Inventory is 2.08 months and days on market average 42 days — all the numbers an investor needs to assess entry timing and strategy. For more on why you should screen at the suburb level, read our LGA vs Suburb research.
For a downloadable breakdown of Narre Warren metrics, see the full Narre Warren data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 75
The HtAG RCS™ score of 75 bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into a single composite to help match markets to strategy. Reading the underlying sub-scores matters: a high composite can reflect strong capital drivers with moderate cashflow, or vice versa. Learn more about how the RCS™ is built.
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Forward signals to watch
vacancy rate — currently 1.61%: a sustained balanced vacancy near 1.6% tends to support steady rent growth rather than rapid increases; a fall below 1% over 12–24 months would signal tightening rental conditions and stronger rent upside.
building approvals ratio — currently 0.16%: this low approvals reading implies limited new housing supply coming online, which can sustain price and rent resilience unless approvals pick up materially above ~0.3%.
Melbourne cycle phase: watch the capital-city cycle for directional momentum — an upswing in Melbourne would likely lift demand and prices in Narre Warren, while a city-wide downturn would slow local price momentum and place more emphasis on rental income.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Narre Warren's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Critical to know
Market Trends
Narre Warren's headline values — $842K to buy and $566PW to rent, a 3.49% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 62.02% and rents 61.08% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$842K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$566PW today, with rent growth at (+2.52% YoY) compared to price growth (+3.67%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Narre Warren in its cycle - and is the 3.49% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Narre Warren's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Narre Warren carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Narre Warren's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Narre Warren can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Narre Warren genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Narre Warren prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Narre Warren - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Narre Warren looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Narre Warren's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Narre Warren has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Narre Warren shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Narre Warren has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Narre Warren 3805 VIC is 22,317, with a median age of 35. Of those, 48.13% are married, 11.46% are divorced or separated, 36.44% are single and 3.96% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.9 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $7,696. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,733 which is 22.52% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)