Mildura, VIC 3500
Mildura Rural City, Victoria
Good to Know
Mildura, VIC 3500 is a supply-constrained house market in the Mildura area, home to roughly 34,565 adults across 19,987 dwellings and currently reporting a vacancy rate of 1.98%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Mildura is exhibiting constrained supply and strong capital momentum. Stock on Market sits at 0.31% and Inventory at 1.54 months — well below the ~3-month balanced threshold — driving +12.4% YoY price growth and +3.8% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Mildura's market shows clear capital-led momentum: 1-year price growth of +12.4% is outpacing rent growth of +3.8%, while gross yield remains healthy at 4.12%. Low visible supply — Stock on Market 0.31% and Inventory 1.54 months — alongside a quick median DOM of 32 days supports continued upward price pressure. For a visual of where Mildura sits today, see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Mildura — and why it matters for investors
Mildura's IRSAD of 913 sits below the recommended threshold, indicating relatively lower socio‑economic advantage and a profile that can increase downside sensitivity during stressed cycles. At the same time the Renter/Owner split of 37.0% is in the neutral band and the Units/Houses mix of 11.0% is also neutral, which supports stable demand patterns. Investors should read the socio‑economic signal alongside occupancy and yield data — see our IRSAD Crossover study for how disadvantage and advantage affect growth volatility.
Why suburb-level data matters for Mildura
Suburb-level metrics matter because averages at higher geographies can hide pockets with very different risk and return. Mildura's own indicators — typical price $625,809, gross yield 4.12%, Stock on Market 0.31%, Inventory 1.54 months and DOM 32 days — tell a picture of tight supply and strong capital momentum that should be assessed on its own merits. For more on why council or LGA figures are only a screening layer, read LGA vs Suburb research.
For a downloadable pack of the suburb metrics, get the full Mildura data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 85
The HtAG RCS™ score of 85 is a composite that bundles three dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into one headline metric. Examining each sub-score matters because it shows whether the score is driven by strong capital upside, robust cashflow, or low risk. Learn more about how the RCS™ is built.
open Mildura in HtAG Copilot to inspect sub‑scores and scenario tests for timed entry and exit strategies.
Forward signals to watch
vacancy rate — currently 1.98%: this balanced reading (1–3.5%) suggests rental market stability; a sustained fall below 1% would tighten rents further over 12–24 months, while a sustained rise above 3.5% would pressure rents.
building approvals ratio — currently 0.61%: a neutral BA rate that indicates moderate new supply; materially higher approvals sustained over 12–24 months could relieve price pressure, while persistently low approvals support tighter fundamentals.
Melbourne cycle phase: a city‑wide shift in Melbourne’s cycle (upturn or downturn) would influence capital flows and lending conditions across Victoria, which can amplify or moderate Mildura’s local momentum depending on the direction of that shift.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Mildura's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
starter
Investor
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Critical to know
Market Trends
Mildura's headline values — $625K to buy and $495PW to rent, a 4.11% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 111.84% and rents 72.82% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$625K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$495PW today, with rent growth at (+3.76% YoY) compared to price growth (+12.38%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Mildura in its cycle - and is the 4.11% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Mildura's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Mildura carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Mildura's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Mildura can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Mildura genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Mildura prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Mildura - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Mildura looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Mildura's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Mildura has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Mildura shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Mildura has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Mildura 3500 VIC is 28,305, with a median age of 39. Of those, 41.70% are married, 14.27% are divorced or separated, 37.53% are single and 6.51% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.4 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $6,540. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,300 which is 19.88% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)
Analysing Mildura’s Property Market
As real estate investors, it is crucial to examine various suburbs and towns using real estate data to identify the best investment opportunities. In this article, we dive into the property market of Mildura, a town in rural Victoria, Australia. We will analyse its the cash flow potential, its affordability, and capital growth prospects to determine whether it is a suitable investment choice.
Mildura is a town well-positioned for a cash flow strategy. Its yield is nearly 5%, making it a fairly lucrative option for investors. Both typical values and rents have grown in the last year, at 3.29% and 6.35% respectively.
The affordability factor also plays a significant role in attracting investors. With typical property values below $500k, Mildura’s low entry cost offers investors the opportunity to leverage capital growth. Considering the limited number of areas in Australia with such affordability, it is expected that this area will attract considerable interest.
Risk and Cash Flow Scores
Mildura features a very high Low Risk Score, indicating that the risk of jeopardizing investment returns is minimal. Additionally, the town has an impressive Cash Flow Score of 97, placing it within the top 3% of areas within Australia for cash flow potential. When comparing typical values expressed in thousands to rent, the figures appear to be relatively close. This suggests that Mildura’s market will likely experience more growth in the capital growth domain rather than purely cash flow, making the area also suitable for a balanced investing strategy.
Property Market Fundamentals
An analysis of Mildura’s property market reveals a steady and sustainable trend in growth. Factors such as population, demographic employment, and business centres have contributed to the town’s continued progress. Mildura has not experienced negative growth since 2010, which further supports its healthy market fundamentals and indicates the presence of a diversified industry in the town.
Supply and Demand
The supply and demand equation in Mildura appears balanced, potentially slightly favouring demand. The current data suggests that a reduced demand will counter increasing supply, thus maintaining market balance. In the past decade, Mildura has experienced a growth of 120%, doubling its property values in one property cycle.
Building approvals in Mildura stand at a moderate 0.44%, maintaining a balance in the supply side of the market. The town’s decreasing vacancy rate and stable days on market also contribute to a favourable investing environment in Mildura.
Conclusion
When looking at real estate data, Mildura presents an attractive investment opportunity, particularly for those considering a cash flow strategy. Its affordability, balanced market, and sustained growth are appealing factors for potential investors. It is important to consider the context of the overall Australian property market and continuously analyse various suburbs and towns for the best investment choices.
To eliminate the impact or low IRSAD, investors should look for areas in Mildura with greater appeal.
By utilizing real estate data and monitoring property markets, investors can make well-informed decisions and maximize returns on their investments. Stay updated on the latest trends and industry news by following experts in the field, and don’t hesitate to ask questions or seek advice from knowledgeable sources.
If you’re considering investing in the property markets, don’t overlook Mildura as an option. Its affordability, growth potential, and healthy market fundamentals make it an excellent choice. Happy investing!
Current Demand Overview
• Days on Market (DOM):
• Properties in Mildura on an average get sold under 40 days, indicating a high demand.
• DOM has remained below 50 days for the past four years and has shown a steady decline over the last 8 months, pointing to increased market pressure.
• Vacancy Rate:
• Currently at 0.7% – well below the balanced benchmark of 2%, highlighting very tight rental availability.
• Historically, vacancy rates hovered around 2%, but they dropped significantly from Dec 2023 to the present.
• Search Trends:
• The search interest has risen steadily over the last three quarters, further suggesting growing demand.
Current Supply Overview
• Building Approvals (BA):
• 0.44%, reflecting a low supply of new residential projects. Given the two-year timeline from approval to completion, the low rate signals limited future stock.
• Over the last 3 years, building approvals have been steadily declining, which may lead to future scarcity.
• Stock on Market (SOM):
• Currently at 0.24%, indicating very low availability of properties. A figure under 1.5% is considered great.
• Hold Period:
• Average hold period is 8.6 years, demonstrating a high level of livability and community stability.
• This metric has seen a rising trend since 2014, when it was 6 years, reflecting the long-term attractiveness of Mildura.
• Inventory:
• Inventory is at 0.79 months—meaning it would take under a month to sell the entire current stock. A 3-month inventory is considered balanced, so Mildura’s high absorption rate reflects strong demand.
Affordability Index
• Years to Own:
• This metric represents the number of years required to fully own a property based on factors such as current interest rates, median family income, and property prices, assuming a standard 30-year mortgage.
• In Mildura, this index has consistently been below 30 years, indicating that homes are relatively affordable.
• Over the past year, it has stabilized at 26-27 years, suggesting that there is room for property prices to grow without becoming unaffordable.
Historical Typical Price Trends
• Consistent Growth with Limited Negative Fluctuations:
• Mildura’s real estate market has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Since 2010, the suburb has never experienced sustained negative growth, only minor corrections.
• This is important to understand because temporary negative growth or corrections are normal, but the duration and frequency of such declines are key indicators of market health.
• Over the past 10 years, property prices in Mildura have doubled (100% growth), reflecting strong long-term performance.
• In the last five years, prices grew by 48%, and in the last three years, by 19%.
• These growth patterns show that while the market has performed well recently, there remains significant potential for further growth.
Demographics and Other Fundamentals
• Population: 35,000
• Renter-to-Owner Ratio: 37% renters, indicating a neutral rental market. A ratio under 40% supports market stability.
• Units to Houses Ratio: 9%, meaning houses dominate the market. This is considered very favorable for price appreciation, as houses generally offer higher growth potential compared to units.
Summary and Recommendations
Mildura offers a compelling real estate market with strong demand, low vacancy rates, and limited future supply, indicating favorable conditions for investors. The livability appeal has grown consistently, reflected in the increasing hold periods and a steady search interest. With affordable pricing metrics and positive growth trends across the board, Mildura presents an excellent long-term investment opportunity. Future restrictions on building approvals may further drive prices up, so early entry into this market would be prudent.
Hi all, Pretty new here and to investing. How do we determine the future development plans, long term employment factors and diversity of industries for Mildura
Hi Pretty,
Development plans often include considerations of the building approval ratio and its trends. In some cases, upcoming land releases might be seen as a potential risk.
The key factor to consider is the staggered nature of these releases and the timeline involved, which spans from land release to community design, building approval (reflected in the Building Approval Ratio metric), and finally, construction.
This process can take upwards of seven years, so for a strategy with a two-year equity extraction timeframe or a 15-year buy-and-hold approach, this time lag may be insignificant. It’s also crucial to note that land releases don’t automatically equate to oversupply; demand intensity must be evaluated first.
Market cycles, characterized by growth followed by subsiding or declining phases, are inevitable. The important question is whether the observable data, including the HTAG’s 105 metric, can provide us with enough insight to determine if our equity extraction timelines and long-term compounding rates on the basis of information provided will align with our goals.
When considering long-term employment factors, it’s vital to question why a particular metric interests you.
Understanding the ‘why’ helps determine if these factors are crucial for assessing an area’s investment potential and whether they are already accounted for in other metrics.
For instance, if the goal is to evaluate future growth potential and market stability, there are more direct measures currently available. If shifts in employment patterns foster growth, such changes should already be evident in existing supply and demand metrics, such as a decreasing Days on Market or the Affordability Index.
When concerned with employment patterns for long-term market stability, examining historical growth patterns is useful. The axiom “when in doubt, zoom out” applies here. Metrics like the GRC Index, GRC Minima, Affordability Index, IRSAD (relative to price point), Economic Diversity Index (EDI), and RCS Risk Score serve as comprehensive indicators that streamline analysis by incorporating social and economic movements, thereby reducing complexity.
Hey Matt,
Do you still feel the same about Mildura in terms of capital growth for 2025?
What is interesting about Mildura is that considering the rest of the sate, it has still seen 5% growth in the last year when most VIC areas have seen a decline. I am not expecting the growth to go below 5% in the coming year simply because there are less and less viable options across AU for such a low price point.
Does the vacancy rate in Mildura serve as a deterrent?
Hi Joseph,
Increases are sometimes seasonal and can be seen across the board in Victoria. The long term trend still remains downtrading. I would monitor the trend for the next couple of months of releases to determine the severity of impact.
Data sets are never perfect and it always comes down to – what other options do we have for 450K typical price that have a better data set, holistically.
Hi,
Is Mildura still a hold going forward into 2026 ?
Many thanks for your inputs and insights.
Kind regards,
Raj
It is based on many things – your strategy, timeframe of returns, required returns, etc. Most importantly, it is based on comparison – are there better markets out there for your brief? You need to do a detailed comparison of areas that match your brief, or have an understanding of how to analyse the above metrics in the context of your needs. If you need some training with this, I suggest upgrading to the Semi-Annual Investor Plan, which will give you access to Level Mastermind, where I provide training to members.
https://mastermind.htag.com.au/