Melton City
Victoria
Good to Know
Melton VIC is a mid-priced house market across the Melton VIC area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. The LGA is home to roughly 178,960 adults across 97,942 dwellings, and the rental market shows a vacancy rate of 3.64% (unfavourable).
According to HtAG Analytics, Melton VIC is exhibiting mixed supply/demand behaviour. Stock on Market sits at 0.61% and Inventory at 3.08 months — around the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +9.1% YoY price growth and +0.7% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Melton VIC shows a clear split between capital gains and rental momentum: annual price growth is a strong +9.1% while rent growth is only +0.7%. That divergence is reflected in a gross yield of 2.96% (below the recommended 3% threshold) and a vacancy rate of 3.64% (unfavourable), which together point to pressure on rental returns even as capital values climb. New supply is also elevated — the building approvals ratio is 4.14% — so monitor whether fresh stock starts to weigh on local momentum. For a visual view of current positioning, see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap. Data confidence: High.
Who lives in Melton VIC — and why it matters for investors
Melton VIC posts an IRSAD of 980, which sits above the HtAG minimum recommended threshold and indicates a modestly resourced socio-economic profile. Tenure is balanced with a renter/owner ratio of 25.0% (neutral), while the units/houses split is just 5.0% (opportune) — meaning detached housing dominates the stock. Those demographic signals matter because tenure mix and housing type affect rental volatility and the types of buyers who drive long-cycle capital growth; see our IRSAD Crossover study for how socio-economic context intersects with price cycles.
Why Melton VIC is a screening layer, not a final answer
LGA-level figures are a useful screening tool, but they average many neighbourhoods and can hide stronger or weaker pockets. Melton VIC’s headline numbers — typical house price $800,511, gross yield 2.96%, Stock on Market 0.61%, Inventory 3.08 months, and days-on-market 37 days — describe the council-wide snapshot, not every suburb within it. Local micro-factors (street, lot size, proximity to transport and schools) will materially change returns, so treat the LGA as the start of research rather than the final investment decision. Read more on methodology in our LGA vs Suburb research.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 49
The HtAG RCS™ combines three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into a single composite. A score of 49 signals a mid-range trade-off between upside and downside risk; the sub-score breakdown is important for matching this LGA to your strategy (for example, stronger on capital potential but weaker on cashflow). Learn more about how the RCS™ is built. To explore Melton VIC further, open Melton VIC in HtAG Copilot.
Forward signals to watch
vacancy rate — currently 3.64%: sustained readings above ~3.5% over 12–24 months typically signal weaker rental demand and increased downward pressure on rents and yield-sensitive buyers.
building approvals ratio — currently 4.14%: a high approvals ratio points to significant new supply coming through, which can soften both rents and price momentum over the next 12–36 months.
Melbourne cycle phase: any city-wide shift in Melbourne’s cycle (for example into a late-cycle or downturn phase) would likely dampen local price growth and rental demand in Melton VIC, while an early-cycle upswing would amplify its existing capital momentum.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
Get full accessCritical to know
RCS Breakdown
Melton City's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
starter
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Market Trends
Melton City's headline values — $800K to buy and $455PW to rent, a 2.95% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 85.10% and rents 38.30% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$800K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$455PW today, with rent growth at (+0.66% YoY) compared to price growth (+9.1%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Melton City in its cycle - and is the 2.95% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
Investor
Pro
Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Melton City's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Melton City carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Melton City's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Fundamentals
Melton City can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Melton City genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Melton City prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Melton City - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
Investor
Pro
Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Melton City looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Melton City's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Melton City has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
Investor
Pro
Full HtAG Intelligence
Melton City shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Melton City has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
Property Market Outlook for Melton City, VIC
Located 35km west of Melbourne’s CBD, Melton is an area that continues to grow rapidly as the city’s population continues to expand outward into the Melbourne-Ballarat growth corridor. Melton started life as a small town, before becoming a satellite city in 1974. It held this status up until 2010, when the State Government started looking to combine the outer suburbs into a broader city area. Melton was named after Melton Mowbray in the United Kingdom and was established in the 1830’s as traffic made its way to the Ballarat gold fields from Melbourne at the height of the Victorian gold rush.
As a result there has and still is a significant focus on transport in the area. Melton has been identified as one of the most car-dependent areas in Melbourne and relies on a heavy road network, built around the Western Freeway.
There is no major central business district in the area, however, High Street is the main activity centre. The construction industry is the major economic contributor to the area, making up roughly 23% of total output. Construction is also the largest employer with 3,855 jobs contributing 15% of total employment.
The Estimated Resident Population of the City of Melton was 164,895 as of the 30th June 2019. Since 2015, Melton has been growing at a rate of above 4% per year with 2019 seeing 5.22% growth. The City of Melton has a higher proportion of households in the medium to high income category compared to Victoria. The unemployment rate has been falling over the past few years and currently sits at 6.7%. The value of building approvals was $757m the 2019-20 and this number has been relatively steady over the past five years.
Dwelling Type Demand Profile
Compared to the national average, there is greater buyer demand for houses in Melton compared to units. Across Melton City, the greatest demand is for three and four bedroom houses, with two and three bedroom units making up only a small portion of the demand profile in the area. Four bedroom homes makeup the largest demand sector of the market in Melton City.
However, there is strong growth in demand for rental units, with the rents growing at 5.44% since Q1 2019. That said, there is little buyer demand for one and two bedroom dwellings and lower sales volumes. As of Q1 2020 the rental yield for houses and units is 3.62% and 4.96% respectively.
How do Melton City houses & units compare to neighbouring LGAs?
According to HtAG property market data, the median house price in Melton City is around A$560,000 with a -3k to + 217K variance compared to the neighbouring LGAs.
The Macedon Ranges Shire has a significantly higher median house price, while Brimbank is also far higher than Melton City.
Macedon Ranges Shire: A$777,000
Brimbank City: A$726,000
Hume City: A$593,000
Moorabool Shire: A$582,00
Wyndham City: A$557,000
House prices in Melton City have started 2020 in a positive fashion, climbing by 0.8% as shown on the heat map. In comparison 2 of the remaining 5 neighbouring LGAs exhibited positive growth above 5%, which were Moorabool Shire and Macedon Ranges Shire. While three of the surrounding LGAs saw negative growth in Q1 2020.
Macedon Ranges Shire: 5.72%
Moorabool Shire: 5.06%
Brimbank City: 1.12%
Wyndham City: -1.63
Hume City: -2.86%
The unit market in Melton City is limited compared to houses with the units priced at a median value of A$360,000. Neighbouring LGA prices vary in the range of -28K to +91K with the median price for units reported as:
Macedon Ranges Shire: A$451,000
Wyndham City: A$410,000
Hume City: A$406,000
Brimbank City: A$391,000
Moorabool Shire: A$332,00
Unit prices in Melton City have seen positive growth in the first quarter of the year with 0.73% increase. Out of the neighbouring LGAs, Melton City has seen the lowest rate of growth in Q1, with Macedon Ranges Shire and Wyndham increasing in value by over 4%.
Macedon Ranges Shire: 5.68%
Wyndham City: 4.02%
Moorabool Shire: 3.07%
Brimbank City: 2.38%
Hume City: 1.95%
Property Market Outloook for Melton City Houses
HtAG property market data for Melton City shows that sales volume for houses had been steadily increasing up until 2018 when it began to drop away. Sales volumes have been steadily climbing since that point, recently peaking in Q4 2019 with 430 transactions. Rental volumes have been in a steady up trend through to the current quarter (2020 Q1).
Median house prices have remained steady since Q1 2019 after reaching A$560,000. HtAG forecasts show that this trend is expected to continue well into the first quarter of 2022 where prices will maintain their current levels. The median value of 2, 3 and 4 bed houses has remained steady since Q2 2018 at A$440k, A$480k and A600k respectively. However, 5 bed houses have grown steadily in value up to $770k.
After peaking at A$400 per week in Q1 2019, median rents for houses in Melton City have gradually fallen away, to where they currently sit at A$390 per week. The median rental price of 2, 3, 4 and 5 bed houses is A$300, A$370, $420 and $470 respectively. HtAG forecasts that the median rental value is expected to continue to decline slightly to A$370 by Q1 2022.
Property Cycle Position of Melton City Houses
The market cycle graph for Melton LGA shows a wide range in the median price change over the last 12 years since 2008.
Growth got as low as 0.37% in January 2012, before growing strongly since that point and reaching as much as 11.5% in January 2018 at the peak of the growth cycle. Since that time growth has slowed down during 2018 and 2019 and at the current time (Q1 2020), Melton City is experiencing 0.8% annual growth.
Growth will continue to be low in 2021 and 2022 for Melton City Houses as we reach the bottom of the property cycle. Currently house prices are at approximately 5 o’clock on the property clock and getting close to bottoming out ahead of the next growth cycle.
According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for this LGA are expected to grow at only 0.06% by 2021. The property cycle for this LGA will likely reach its peak in years 2021-2022.
Suburb Capital Growth and Price Heatmaps for Houses in Melton City
The heatmap above represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis
The red areas show the suburbs that have decreased in value by 2% in 2020. The suburbs with the negative growth in that range are Truganina Houses (A$546,000) at -1.91% and Plumpton (A$592,000) at -1.70%.
The yellow and green areas show a percentage increase ranging from 2%-6% with the highest growth in the suburb of Melton at 7.65%. While Diggers Rest has seen 7.07% growth and Eynesbury 7.65% growth in 2020.
The scatter plot above shows all the individual sales over the past year and their concentration in the LGA. Taylors Hill and Caroline Springs are the high end suburbs where most of the sales in the 800K-1M range occurred. Those suburbs also had pockets where sales took place around the 500-600k range. The vast majority of sales have been in Melton, Melton South, Brookfield and Melton West at lower price points in the 200K to 400K range. There have only been limited sales in Rockbank and they were predominately in the 400k to 500k range. While sales have been low in Plumpton.
Property Market Outlook for Melton City Units
The median price for units in Melton City is sharply lower than the median price for houses. Units had a median price of A$360k in the first quarter of 2020 whereas houses had a median price of A$560k during the same period. 2 bed units have a median value of A$330k, while 3 bed units have a median value of $390k as of Q1 2020.
The trend is slightly different with rental prices for units where they have consistently increased to where it sits currently at A$340 per week. 2 bed units have a median rental price of A$320, while 3 bed units have a median rental price of $370 as of Q1 2020. Sales volumes fell away sharply at the start of 2019 and have since been climbing to where they currently sit with 26 for Q1 2020. While the number of rentals continues to grow steadily.
According to market forecasts by HtAG, the median price of units will continue to remain flat headed into Q1 2022, remaining at A$360k. However, the forecast for unit rental prices appears to be continuing to increase. By Q1 2022, it is forecast that the median rent will climb to A$370 per week, from where it is currently at A$340.
Property Cycle Position of Melton City Units
Market cycle graph for Melton City units above shows the yearly median price change starting from 2008. Prices have had two significant growth cycles in that time and have seen maximum growth at 11.83% in 2017. Since that point, growth slowed from early 2017 until now (Q1 2020). It appears prices are nearing the bottom of the current cycle as growth is currently at 0.73% and likely to decline further into 2022 according to HtAG forecasts.
The dark orange line is forecasting unit prices to show slower growth over the next two years, reaching -0.12% by 2022.
According to the HtAG forecast, median prices for this LGA are expected to remain mostly flat this year, which would suggest that it is nearing the bottom of the property cycle and would be approximately 5 o’clock on the property clock. The property cycle for units in Melton City will likely reach its peak in years 2021-2022.
Suburb Capital Growth & Price Heatmaps for Units in Melton City
The heatmap above represents median price growth in this LGA on an annual basis for units in Melton City in 2020. Out of the 4 highlighted suburbs, Melton City has seen the strongest growth of 5.39% in 2020. Melton South has seen growth of 4.27%, while Hillside units are growing at 4.69%.
Looking at the scatter plot, there are far fewer unit sales in this LGA compared to houses. The vast majority of sales are concentrated in the suburbs of Melton and Melton South and are in the 200K to 300K range. There were some higher priced unit sales in Hillside in the range of 400K to 500K, which were 3 bed units.
Conclusion
Melton City appears to be nearing the bottom of the property cycle with a number of suburbs within the LGA that appear set for strong growth. Given its good access to transport and being in the Melbourne-Ballarat growth corridor, there is the expectation for median values to start another growth phase after 2021-22.
In 2020, the houses in the suburb of Melton have grown at 7.65%. While Diggers Rest has grown at 7.07% and Eynesbury by 7.65% on an annualised basis. Over the next two years, HtAG forecasts Taylors Hill houses are set to grow by +10.02% by Q1 2022 which is assessed as high confidence due to the strong sales volumes in Q1. Over that same period of time, Burnside (+10.01%), Burnside Heights (+9.88%) and Eynesbury houses (+9.61%) will all see strong growth which have been assessed with medium confidence.
Rockbank houses are expected to grow at +37.97%, however confidence is low based on low volumes of just 3 sales this quarter. Melton South is forecast to grow by +1.32% to $448,628 by Q1 2022 with high confidence based on 38 sales in Q1. Plumpton is expected to remain relatively flat through to Q1 2022, with the median value rising +0.04% to $591,748. However, confidence is only low with this forecast based on only 2 sales in Q1.
In terms of areas that will likely see weak growth by Q1 2022, HtAG forecasts Harkness houses to fall in median value by -2.62% (high confidence), while Truganina houses will also fall slightly by -0.21% over that same period. The suburbs that are expected to show the strongest rental yields by Q1 2022 are Melton South (4.11%), Harkness (4.07%), Brookfiled (3.97%), Truganina (3.86%) and Melton West (3.77%)
For the unit market, the suburb of Melton is predicted to grow at +7.14% by Q1 2022, with medium confidence. The other unit markets have limited sales data. Yields for Melton units are forecast to be 4.54% in Q1 2022.