Sunbury, VIC 3429
Hume City, Victoria
Good to Know
Sunbury, VIC 3429 is a growth-oriented house market in the Hume City Council area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Located about 40 km north‑west of Melbourne CBD, Sunbury is home to roughly 38,851 adults across 21,975 dwellings and is trading on a vacancy rate of 2.36%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Sunbury is exhibiting a supply-constrained market with positive price momentum. Stock on Market sits at 0.31% and Inventory at 2.1 months — tighter than the ~3-month balanced threshold — driving +8.4% YoY price growth and +2.8% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Sunbury's data shows stronger capital gains than rental growth: prices are up 8.4% over 12 months while rents rose 2.8%. Low Stock on Market (0.31%) and tight Inventory (2.1 months) are the main supply signals supporting recent price momentum; meanwhile a balanced vacancy rate keeps short-term rental pressure moderate. For a live view of where markets are tightening or loosening, see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Sunbury — and why it matters for investors
Sunbury scores 1015 on IRSAD, indicating relative socio‑economic advantage, and a renter/owner ratio of 20.0% (neutral). Low units share (9.0%) points to a predominantly house-based market and can reduce cycle volatility compared with high-unit suburbs. These demographic signals help explain why price growth has outpaced rent growth; see the IRSAD Crossover study for the empirical link between socio‑economic mix and property cycles.
Why suburb-level data matters for Sunbury
Suburb-level metrics reveal the local supply/demand balance that council averages can obscure. Sunbury’s typical house price is $800,009 with a gross yield of 3.35%, Stock on Market at 0.31%, Inventory 2.1 months and median days on market 26 days — a compact signal set that supports a growth-with-income strategy. Council or LGA summaries blend many micro‑markets; use suburb metrics to pick the right streets and holding periods. Read more in our LGA vs Suburb research. For a downloadable breakdown, get the full Sunbury data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 90
HtAG's RCS™ score of 90 bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital‑growth potential and cashflow resilience — into a single composite to help match markets to strategy. High overall scores like Sunbury’s reflect a combination of tight supply, solid price momentum and supportive socio‑economic fundamentals; however, the sub‑score breakdown tells you whether to prioritise growth or income. Learn how the RCS™ is built. Ready to model scenarios? open Sunbury in HtAG Copilot.
Forward signals to watch
vacancy rate — currently 2.36%: at a balanced level; sustained falls below 1% would tighten rents and push yields lower over 12–24 months, while rises above ~3.5% would relieve rental pressure.
building approvals ratio — currently 2.11%: readings above 2% signal elevated pipeline supply; if sustained, higher approvals can ease price pressure and lift rental vacancy in the medium term.
Melbourne cycle phase: a city‑wide shift into a slower phase would likely temper local momentum in Sunbury, while a broader upswing in Melbourne would amplify local gains given Sunbury’s commuting and growth links.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
Get full accessCritical to know
RCS Breakdown
Sunbury's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
starter
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Market Trends
Sunbury's headline values — $800K to buy and $516PW to rent, a 3.35% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 85.96% and rents 55.89% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$800K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$516PW today, with rent growth at (+2.79% YoY) compared to price growth (+8.36%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Sunbury in its cycle - and is the 3.35% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
Investor
Pro
Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Sunbury's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Sunbury carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Sunbury's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Fundamentals
Sunbury can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Sunbury genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Sunbury prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Sunbury - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
Investor
Pro
Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Sunbury looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Sunbury's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Sunbury has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
Investor
Pro
Full HtAG Intelligence
Sunbury shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Sunbury has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Sunbury 3429 VIC is 31,477, with a median age of 38. Of those, 47.07% are married, 12.44% are divorced or separated, 36.08% are single and 4.46% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.6 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $8,956. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,733 which is 19.35% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)