Sunbury, VIC 3429
Hume City, Victoria
Good to Know
Sunbury, VIC 3429 is a high-value house market in the Hume City area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Located around 40 km north-west of Melbourne CBD, Sunbury is home to roughly 38,851 adults across 21,975 dwellings, with a vacancy rate of 2.36%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Sunbury is exhibiting tight supply with balanced rental availability. Stock on Market sits at 0.34% and Inventory at 1.98 months — below the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +8.5% YoY price growth and +2.0% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Sunbury shows clear capital-growth momentum: prices are up +8.5% over the last year while rents have lifted a more modest +2.0%. The indicative gross yield of 3.33% (median weekly rent $513) is above the minimum recommended threshold of 3%, so investors can still expect acceptable cash returns — but the primary driver here is price appreciation.
Low Stock on Market (0.34%), tight Inventory (1.98 months) and a fast 29-day median time on market point to competitive buyer conditions. Data confidence: High. For a live view of similar momentum across markets see the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap.
Who lives in Sunbury — and why it matters for investors
Sunbury records an IRSAD decile of 6, indicating a modestly advantaged socio-economic profile. That mix tends to support steady demand with moderate volatility; it favours long-cycle capital growth rather than highly cyclical price swings. For more on how socio-economic bands link to property performance see the IRSAD Crossover study.
The local tenure mix is neutral — renter/owner at 20% — while the Units/Houses ratio is only 9% (opportune), meaning the market is housing-dominant. Note also affordability sits at 41 years, above the 30-year threshold, which can constrain entry-buyers and support a longer hold strategy.
Why suburb-level data matters for Sunbury
Council-level averages can hide distinctive pockets: Sunbury’s own metrics — a typical house price of $800,481, gross yield of 3.33%, Stock on Market 0.34%, Inventory 1.98 months and median days on market 29 — tell a different story than a generic LGA summary might. Use suburb-level figures to match strategy to real local conditions rather than relying on broad averages. Read more in our LGA vs Suburb research.
For a downloadable breakdown, get the full Sunbury data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 90
HtAG’s RCS™ bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into a single composite so you can compare markets quickly. A score of 90 indicates strong overall suitability for investors seeking capital growth with acceptable yield; however, the sub-score breakdown matters when matching to a specific strategy (for example, yield-first versus growth-first approaches). Learn more about how the RCS™ is built.
open Sunbury in HtAG Copilot to see the full sub-score breakdown and scenario testing.
Forward signals to watch
The vacancy rate — currently 2.36%: at this balanced level rental availability is not exceptionally tight, so expect modest, steady rental growth rather than sharp jumps unless vacancy trends fall below 1%.
The building approvals ratio — currently 2.11%: this elevated approvals reading is unfavourable from a supply-pressure viewpoint; sustained high approvals can add stock and cap some price upside over a 12–36 month horizon.
The wider Melbourne cycle phase: a city-wide shift into a weaker phase would likely temper Sunbury’s local momentum, while expansion across Melbourne would amplify its current growth drivers.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
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RCS Breakdown
Sunbury's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
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Critical to know
Market Trends
Sunbury's headline values — $793K to buy and $512PW to rent, a 3.35% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 83.79% and rents 54.22% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$793K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$512PW today, with rent growth at (+1.39% YoY) compared to price growth (+6.36%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Sunbury in its cycle - and is the 3.35% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
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Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Sunbury's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Sunbury carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
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Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Sunbury's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
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Fundamentals
Sunbury can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Sunbury genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Sunbury prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Sunbury - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
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Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Sunbury looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Sunbury's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Sunbury has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
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Full HtAG Intelligence
Sunbury shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Sunbury has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Sunbury 3429 VIC is 31,477, with a median age of 38. Of those, 47.07% are married, 12.44% are divorced or separated, 36.08% are single and 4.46% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.6 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $8,956. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,733 which is 19.35% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)