Warrnambool, VIC 3280
Moyne Shire, Victoria
Good to Know
Warrnambool, VIC 3280 is a tightly-held house market in the Warrnambool City Council area, currently positioned as a long-hold capital growth submarket. Located on Victoria’s south-west coast, it’s home to roughly 31,308 adults across 19,052 dwellings, with a vacancy rate of 0.88%.
According to HtAG Analytics, Warrnambool is exhibiting strong demand and constrained supply. Stock on Market sits at 0.2% and Inventory at 2.0 months — well below the ~3-month balanced-market threshold — driving +13.0% YoY price growth and +3.9% YoY rent growth.
What the market data is signalling
Warrnambool’s house market is showing clear capital-led momentum: price growth is running at +13.0% over 12 months while rent growth is a more moderate +3.9%. That gap, combined with an opportune vacancy rate of 0.88%, very low Stock on Market at 0.2% and quick median days on market of 35 days, points to tight market conditions favouring sellers and upward price pressure.
See the Markets in the Moment (MiM™) heatmap for where Warrnambool sits in the current national patchwork of momentum.
Who lives in Warrnambool — and why it matters for investors
Warrnambool records an IRSAD of 974, above the recommended minimum, signalling relatively stronger socio-economic conditions that tend to support lower downside volatility in demand. The renter/owner split is 30.0% renters (neutral) and the units/houses mix is 11.0% (neutral), so the tenure and dwelling-type structure is balanced rather than rental-heavy.
Those demographic and SES signals influence tenant demand resilience and capital growth patterns; read the IRSAD Crossover study for the evidence behind these links.
Why suburb-level data matters for Warrnambool
Suburb-level metrics tell a different, more actionable story than coarse summaries. For Warrnambool the suburb’s own figures — a typical house price of $752,568, gross yield of 4.01%, Stock on Market 0.2%, Inventory 2.0 months and median DOM 35 days — show a tightly-held, high-turnover house market that may suit capital-growth focused buyers or hybrid strategies that value both yield and upside.
Don’t rely on council- or region-level averages alone; see our methodology note in LGA vs Suburb research. For a downloadable breakdown, get the full Warrnambool data guide.
What's behind the RCS™ score of 93
HtAG’s RCS™ (Rating Composite Score) of 93 bundles three independent dimensions — risk minimisation, capital-growth potential and cashflow resilience — into a single composite so you can match markets to strategy. High overall scores reflect strong price momentum, tight supply and reasonable yields, but the sub-score breakdown shows where trade-offs exist.
Read how the RCS™ is built, then open Warrnambool in HtAG Copilot to explore the sub-scores and scenarios for this market.
Forward signals to watch
vacancy rate — currently 0.88%: sustained sub‑1% vacancy over 12–24 months typically means mounting rental pressure, faster rent growth and limited tenant choice, which supports investor cashflow and re-letting security.
building approvals ratio — currently 1.38%: this neutral reading implies a moderate development pipeline; neither a construction glut nor a complete supply squeeze, so watch for material increases that would soften tightness.
Melbourne cycle phase: a city‑wide shift in the Melbourne cycle (momentum turning up or down) can influence regional markets like Warrnambool through migration and investor flows — monitor capital‑city signals for early warning on local momentum.
Does this area meet your investment goals?
Get full accessCritical to know
RCS Breakdown
Warrnambool's RCS™ headline is an overall signal — but it doesn't tell you why. The three sub-scores below reveal whether that score is earned through risk minimisation, capital growth, or cashflow — and which portfolio brief it fits.
starter
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Market Trends
Warrnambool's headline values — $752K to buy and $579PW to rent, a 4.0% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved 99.70% and rents 78.46% — the Yield series shows whether that gap is widening (price outpacing rent, yield compressing) or closing.
$752K is today. The 10-year trajectory reveals whether that's the top of a run, the start of a new leg, or somewhere mid-cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
$579PW today, with rent growth at (+3.94% YoY) compared to price growth (+12.98%). That spread determines yield is expanding or compressing across the next cycle. Sign up to unlock the entire trend line.
Where is Warrnambool in its cycle - and is the 4.0% yield holding?
Cycle phase tells you whether you're buying near the bottom (room to run) or top (compression ahead). Yield trajectory tells you whether cashflow is durable or being eroded — the single most important question for a long-hold thesis.
Cycle Phase
Cycle Position
Yield Trajectory
Rent vs Price Spread
Investor
Pro
Area Risks
Property data alone won't flag the structural risks that can erode a long-hold position. Bushfire overlays, flood-zone exposure, and economic concentration sit outside the price feed but determine whether your capital is insurable, defensible, and structurally protected. Unlock to see.
Are there hidden structural risks shaping Warrnambool's long-hold story?
Beyond the headline price, Warrnambool carries risk signals a median can't show — hazard exposure from bushfire and flood overlays, and how narrowly local employment leans on a handful of sectors (the concentration the EDI score quantifies). Together these separate insurable, defensible long-holds from those carrying tail-risk that never surfaces in the headline number.
MADI Risk
EDI Risk
Bushfire
Flood
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Supply & Demand
Warrnambool's headline numbers show where the market is today. The two cards below answer where it's heading. Direction is what separates a buy from a wait.
Is housing supply tightening or building up?
Stock on Market is one number — the trend is what matters. SoM, inventory, building approvals and hold period together reveal whether the market is starving for stock (price pressure up) or quietly building a pipeline (pressure down).
Stock on Market
Inventory
Building Approvals
Hold Period
Is buyer and renter demand heating up or cooling off?
Vacancy is one signal — the real question is whether demand is still building or quietly peaking. Days on market, vacancy, search index and clearance rate are the four pulse-points — when they diverge, they signal a turning point.
Days on Market
Vacancy Rate
Search Index
Clearance Rate
Investor
Pro
Critical to know
Fundamentals
Warrnambool can look solid on the surface — but the three layers below separate markets that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Is Warrnambool genuinely stable - or just expensive?
IRSAD hints at affluence, but socio-economic strength alone doesn't guarantee resilience. Combined with the renter-to-owner balance and unit-to-house ratio, you get the three signals that separate a tightly-held submarket from one carrying hidden volatility.
IRSAD
Renter to Owner
Units to Houses
Where do Warrnambool prices go over the next 12 months?
Today's headline price is just a snapshot. Projected ROI and the volatility index tell you whether to commit capital now, wait for a softer entry, or rotate into a steadie submarket.
Projected Annual ROI
Volatility Index
Can you actually buy into Warrnambool - and exit cleanly?
Tightly-held areas reward long-hold investors but punish anyone who needs liquidity. Annual sales and rental volume reveal whether your capital can reposition — or sits structurally locked in.
Annual Sales Volume
Annual Rental Volume
Investor
Pro
Important to know
Education & Infrastructure
Warrnambool looks tightly-held and stable on the surface — but the three layers below separate areas that genuinely hold value from ones that only look like they do.
Does Warrnambool's school catchment + infrastructure pipeline justify the price?
School ranks anchor family demand and tenant quality. The active infrastructure pipeline shifts a suburb's price ceiling over the next 5–10 years. Together they tell you whether Warrnambool has structural support for the next leg of capital growth.
School Rank
Hospitals & Employment
Infrastructure Spend
Transport Projects
Investor
Pro
Full HtAG Intelligence
Warrnambool shows potential. The platform tells you whether it's the best fit for your portfolio.
Price and yield are only the surface. HtAG reads the forces underneath — supply tightening or loosening, demand heating or cooling, and the risks that move slowly but decide long-term growth. Together they show whether Warrnambool has the structural support for its next leg — or whether the numbers are running ahead of the fundamentals.
The total adult population (15 years or older) of Warrnambool 3280 VIC is 25,990, with a median age of 42. Of those, 44.90% are married, 12.81% are divorced or separated, 35.50% are single and 6.80% are widowed.
The average household size is 2.3 people per dwelling, and the median household monthly income is estimated to be $7,444. The median monthly mortgage repayment for households in this suburb is $1,408 which is 18.91% of their earnings.
Source: ABS Census Data (2021)
Below is a comprehensive analysis of the current property landscape in Warrnambool based on the provided data.
Current Demand Overview
• Days on Market (DOM):Properties are sold within 36 days on average, indicating steady demand.
Over the past four years, DOM has averaged around 40 days, reflecting consistent, stable demand.
• Vacancy Rate (VR): Currently at 0.94%, well below the balanced benchmark of 2%, indicating tight rental availability.
Vacancy rates have trended upwards since 2020 (from 0.7%), peaking at 1.6% in April 2024, before decreasing sharply to the current level.
• Search Trends: Recent search data shows rising interest from both buyers and renters over the last 5-6 months.
Current and future Supply Overview
• Building Approvals (BA): Low building approval rate at 0.98%, signaling limited new supply. With approvals typically taking two years to translate into stock, this points to future supply constraints.
• Building approvals have steadily decreased over the past three years, suggesting no major surge in new residential development.
• Stock on Market (SOM): Current SOM is 0.21%, indicating very low property availability. A SOM under 1.5% reflects excellent market conditions.
Supply has remained steady over the last four years, showing a consistent balance in available listings.
• Hold Period: The average hold period is 10 years, up from 6.8 years in 2012, demonstrating strong livability and community retention.
• Inventory: stands at 0.85 months, meaning the entire stock could be sold in under a month. A balanced market typically requires three months of inventory, underscoring strong demand in Warrnambool.
Affordability
• Years to Own: This metric represents the number of years required to fully own a property based on factors such as current interest rates, median family income, and property prices, assuming a standard 30-year mortgage. Warrnambool’s affordability index has hovered around 32 years, even with recent interest rate increases. This suggests that property prices remain affordable relative to other Victorian regions.
• Over the past 2 years, it has been around that 32 years mark despite interest rate rises, suggesting that there is room for property prices to grow without becoming unaffordable.
Historical Typical Price Trends
• Warrnambool real estate market from 2012 to 2017, the market experienced stabilization with limited growth. However, it demonstrated resilience, as property prices did not decline during this period, even when considering the broader timeframe from 2010 to the present. Significant growth began in 2017. Although prices have decreased by 3% from 2023 to now, this is not unusual, as it aligns with similar trends observed across the broader Victorian market.
* This is important to understand because temporary negative growth or corrections are normal, but the duration and frequency of such declines are key indicators of market health.
* Over the past 10 years, property prices in Warrnambool have seen 88% absolute growth, reflecting strong long-term performance.
* In the last five years, prices grew by 56%, and in the last three years, by 14%.
* These growth patterns show significant potential for further growth.
Demographics and Other Market Fundamentals
• Population: 31,000
• Renter-to-Owner Ratio: 30% renters, indicating a stable market with balanced rental and ownership.
• Units-to-Houses Ratio: 8% units, meaning the market is predominantly composed of houses, which typically appreciate better than units, providing a strong foundation for future capital growth.
Warrnambool could be a good long term buy and hold as the rental yield is good, socio-economic is good and typical price movements historical do not give any evidence of concerning fluctuations and corrections.
Hi Vivek,
Great narrative. leave your details at the end of the post for people can reach out to you. One thing I would add is a discussion of supply and demand trends which does not make this area as the best option in short to mid term. Because we are not seeing decent reduction in supply and demand side equation in the short term, I think this area will need another 4 years to provide for meaningful returns.
thanks Matt for your inputs
Thank you Vivek for the analsyis and Matt for your comment. Matt I am currently watching Warrnambool and the supply stocks are very low, in fact it has declined to 0.15% in the last month. Do you still think it will take 4 years for this area to grow?
Dont look at only the current month. Long term trends have a much higher utility when it comes to prediction and for this area, long term supply trends are increasing and the same with demand which means that the demand is weak.
Well done mate. Great analysis.