HtAG’s machine learning algorithm analyses the investment potential of over 30 council areas and 600 suburbs in Melbourne. Localities are ranked based on projected capital growth and statistical significance of forecast (high, medium & low confidence).
We use a machine-learning algorithm that learns off a combination of historical and recent — days and weeks — sales data to forecast future prices. Because we collect new sales data on a daily basis, marginal increases or decreases in sale prices serve as immediate signals for our model to adapt to new market realities.
The delay in most industry property reports is at least 3 months. In contrast to that, HtAG’s view of the market is near real-time. Here are some of the previous forecasts our model produced.
Australian property market cycles differ across states and capital cities. Whereas most investors are aware of price cyclicity at this “low resolution” view of the market, little is known about how property cycles manifest themselves at the council and suburb level.
Because we analyse cycles at their most granular (suburb) level, our reports pinpoint areas that move out of cycle within a city or regional area. This information is of great value to any savvy investor looking for a perfect market entry timing and is very popular with entrepreneurs employing the renovate and sell strategy. Our reports also evince areas that are not subjected to negative price movement in the downturn and are great safe haven investments for the buy and hold, negative gearing and positive gearing strategists.
For example, the first chart on the right illustrates cycles in 31 Melbourne areas for the house market segment. Despite the downturn, 3 areas remain in the positive growth region (above the horizontal 0 axis red line). One area shows out of cycle behavior. Sign up to find out what all the charted areas are.
Similar to Melbourne, cyclical patterns are seen in other capital cities, with Adelaide and Perth exhibiting at least 2 localised markets with opposite periodicity. Note that cycles presented here are for the house market segment. Sign up to get access to both house and unit market segment reports.
|2019 Top 10 Movers|
|10 Year Price and Sales Data|
|2021 Median Price Forecasts|
|Market Cycle Analysis|
|Capital Growth Ranking|