Real estate markets can often appear overwhelming and complex, and when you take a closer look you can see that small and medium markets often exist within an even larger market.
This is certainly true in Australia’s real estate, where a variety of different markets intersect and cross over. In this article, we’ll take a look at the different types of real estate markets that exist within Australia and examine the latest trends for house prices across our vast country.
Markets in the Moment Heatmap – MiM!
Have you ever heard the expression – “There are markets within markets”?
For a long time, it was no more than a figure of speech, but HtAG Analytics has discovered a way to make this concept a reality. Introducing the Markets in the Moment Heatmap – or MiM! for short.
Using this tool, you can visualise the “markets within markets” phenomenon. Ready or not, you’re freefalling into this rabbit hole and discovering something truly amazing.
Tip: Toggle between views for Houses and Units using the accordion menu. Click on the image to enlarge it in a separate window. Pinch and zoom after opening the image if you’re on a mobile device. Remember that you can always access the interactive version of the heatmap here.
The heatmap allows you to explore five levels of the real estate market:
- Country
- State
- City/Region
- LGA (Local Government Area)
- Suburb
By selecting any of the boxes presented, you can delve deeper into the data. The box size is representative of the average monthly sales volume in the market. While areas highlighted in red indicate a decrease in YY price growth, areas shaded in green denote an increase on this colour scale.
Uncovering the Feb-Mar 2023 Housing Market Trends
It may be surprising to city dwellers, but the majority of real estate sales in Australia are houses. This is evident when observing the larger market size for houses compared to units on the very first chart above.
You may have noticed that, on a large scale, the colors of the market for units is closely correlated to the colors of the market for houses in terms of price growth. But, an interesting exception to the rule can be seen in the Feb-Mar 2023 data.
Houses in Canberra are faring worse than units in terms of year-on-year price growth, while the opposite is true for units compared to houses in both the Northern Territory and Perth. Additionally, Regional NSW houses show more red than units in the market in relative terms.
Year on Year Price Growth as at 28 Feb 2023
We’re taking a detailed look at house price growth in March 2023. To dive deeper, we’ll explore the changes on a state-level basis.
When it comes to measuring house price levels and trends within suburbs, it’s important to note that HtAG Analytics uses something called Typical Price. This special metric is far more reliable than the median price. Let’s dive into the data to get a better grasp of what’s happening!
New South Wales: Sydney Houses Tank
Click on the image to enlarge it or see the interactive version of the chart here.
In comparison to the Greater Sydney housing market, regional NSW has a considerable advantage, with the “outback” markets dominating at a ratio of 60 to 40 when it comes to average sales volume.
This is hardly surprising, considering the substantial number of units that are available across the state’s capital. With more and more property buyers looking for an opulent lifestyle, elsewhere in the state, Regional NSW has proven a popular choice.
Sydney’s property market saw a wave of red for Year on Year (YOY) price growth. Northern Beaches in Sydney is showing the sharpest decline in values.
The LGAs of Sydney, Bayside, Sutherland, Inner West and Hornsby had a notably worse performance YoY, while Lane Cove, Willoughby, Waverley, Campbelltown and Liverpool experienced more stability and largely remained in the positive territory.
Regional NSW markets are faring much better than their counterparts in Sydney this cycle. By taking a global view of the market, it is clear that regional areas are able to navigate this economic climate with more poise and foresight.
While Central Coast, Wollongong, Lismore, Ballina, and Kiama are in the red, areas like Murray River, Forbes, Kempsey, Bega Valley, Wagga Wagga and many other local government areas have been able to hold their own in the green.
Northern Territory: Stagnating House Price Growth
Click on the image to enlarge it or see the interactive version of the chart here.
Northern Territory is the smallest of all the other state markets in terms of sales volume. Did you know that some Local Government Areas (LGAs) around the country have similar or larger sales figures than this entire state?
This means that we must be cautious when interpreting the statistics for this market.
If we look at the Northern Territory data in terms of year-on-year house price growth, then it appears that it has been relatively uneventful. There are new suburbs that are showing growth but the sample size of sales is relatively small to draw any definitive conclusions.
In general, it appears that Northern Territory has entered a period of stagnancy in terms of year-on-year price growth.
Queensland: Regional Housing Markets Outperform Brisbane
Click on the image to enlarge it or see the interactive version of the chart here.
When it comes to market performance, Queensland is seeing much better results than New South Wales, as evidenced by its vibrantly green heatmap.
Outstanding regional hotspots include Ipswich, Fraser Coast, Logan, and Bundaberg, all boasting prolific growth.
When it comes to Brisbane, however, certain areas have seen a slight downturn, notably the Eastern and Southern suburbs. One bright spot, however, is the West of Brisbane, with the highest rate of price growth in the state capital.
South Australia: Local Housing Boom in Adelaide
Click on the image to enlarge it or see the interactive version of the chart here.
When it comes to real estate in South Australia, the Adelaide market is far more vast than what’s found in the state’s regional areas. The city is experiencing an impressive surge in housing growth, making it the envy of the national real estate market.
This year, some of the top-performing local government areas in Adelaide have been Playford, Salisbury, and Onkaparinga. These LGAs boasting some of the top YoY growth country-wide.
While in the more rural part of South Australia, Port Augusta, Yankalilla, Tatiara, Mount Gambier, Robe, and many more are boasting great house price growth.
Tasmania: Housing Market of Contrasts
Click on the image to enlarge it or see the interactive version of the chart here.
Tasmania’s property market displays an interesting contrast to that of the more uniform South Australia, with pockets of both growth and decline identified in year-on-year price change.
Glenorchy City has experienced minor price decline, whereas YoY growth is showing signs if slow down in other popular LGAs such as Hobart and Clarence.
On the other hand, Launceston, Burnie, Waratah-Wynyard and Break O’Day have seen solid growth. It’s a market of contrast and one worth keeping an eye on.
Victoria: Regional House Prices Continue to Rise
Click on the image to enlarge it or see the interactive version of the chart here.
Victoria is a state unlike any other when it comes to property markets, as the Melbourne metropolitan area accounts for the majority of the house sakes in the market.
Interestingly, the Victoria regional market is performing better than the Melbourne market in terms of year-on-year house price growth.
In Melbourne, the majority of LGAs are showing minor to medium price declines year-on-year. The most impacted LGAs are Moreland, Kingston, Maroondah, Knox, Mornington Peninsula, Darebin. In contrast, LGAs such as Wyndham and Melton are showing minor price increases in year-on-year statistics.
When we look at the regional market in Victoria, there a lot more LGAs in the green with Greater Shepparton, East Gippsland, Moyne, Moira and many others are showing positive price growth. Greater Geelong and Baw Baw on the other hand are showing minor price declines this year.
Western Australia: Sea of Light Green
Click on the image to enlarge it or see the interactive version of the chart here.
Perth’s property market is setting the tone for the rest of Western Australia. Year-on-year price growth across the state has been uniform, with no major discrepancies between the capital and its regional counterparts.
Some regional LGAs, however, have seen greater price increases than their neighbors; in particular, Augusta Margaret River, Port Hedland, and Harvey have demonstrated robust year-on-year price growth.
When it comes to Perth, majority of the LGAs within the city are exhibiting similar year-on-year price growth. Nonetheless, two areas worth noting are Rockingham and Joondalup, which have both experienced slightly higher growth rates compared to the other LGAs in the city.
Explore Capital City House & Unit Prices
Now, let’s take a closer look at the city-level data and explore the heatmaps. Dive deep into the charts below and get an intricate view on the LGAs and suburbs exhibiting price growth or decline.
You’ll gain greater insight and be more informed about the house price changes in these 5 state capitals. Dig in and make the most of the data.
Want to share your view of these markets? Leave a comment below.
Summary
In conclusion, Australia’s real estate market consists of diverse, yet interconnected markets that vary across different states and cities.
By using the Markets in the Moment Heatmap (MiM!), it is possible to visualise the various levels of the market and uncover the opportunities that exist across the country.
From Sydney’s tanking housing market to Victoria’s regional house prices continuing to rise, it is clear that there are a range of trends affecting different areas in March 2023 and beyond.
Lastly, it is essential to note that the data for MiM! is calculated from the bottom up, whereas other data outlets employ top-down methodologies.
For instance, the heatmap takes suburb-level typical price data and then aggregates it to Local Government Area (LGA), City and State levels.
The top-down approach can yield different results when compared to the more granular approach used by HtAG Analytics.
For investors, understanding data at the most granular level possible, namely suburb or street level, is essential for making informed decisions.
If you’re interested in learning more about the unit segment, take a look at the unit section of MiM! and share your thoughts on the market performance by leaving a comment below.